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Lobatto-Milstein Numerical Method in Application of Uncertainty Investment of Solar Power Projects

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  • Mahmoud A. Eissa

    (Department of Mathematics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China
    Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Menoufia University, Menoufia 32511, Egypt)

  • Boping Tian

    (Department of Mathematics, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China)

Abstract

Recently, there has been a growing interest in the production of electricity from renewable energy sources (RES). The RES investment is characterized by uncertainty, which is long-term, costly and depends on feed-in tariff and support schemes. In this paper, we address the real option valuation (ROV) of a solar power plant investment. The real option framework is investigated. This framework considers the renewable certificate price and, further, the cost of delay between establishing and operating the solar power plant. The optimal time of launching the project and assessing the value of the deferred option are discussed. The new three-stage numerical methods are constructed, the Lobatto3C-Milstein (L3CM) methods. The numerical methods are integrated with the concept of Black–Scholes option pricing theory and applied in option valuation for solar energy investment with uncertainty. The numerical results of the L3CM, finite difference and Monte Carlo methods are compared to show the efficiency of our methods. Our dataset refers to the Arab Republic of Egypt.

Suggested Citation

  • Mahmoud A. Eissa & Boping Tian, 2017. "Lobatto-Milstein Numerical Method in Application of Uncertainty Investment of Solar Power Projects," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-19, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:10:y:2017:i:1:p:43-:d:86619
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Yiju Ma & Kevin Swandi & Archie Chapman & Gregor Verbic, 2019. "Multi-Stage Compound Real Options Valuation in Residential PV-Battery Investment," Papers 1910.09132, arXiv.org.
    4. Assereto, Martina & Byrne, Julie, 2021. "No real option for solar in Ireland: A real option valuation of utility scale solar investment in Ireland," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    5. Jinying Li & Fan Wu & Jinchao Li & Yunqi Zhao, 2017. "Research on Risk Evaluation of Transnational Power Networking Projects Based on the Matter-Element Extension Theory and Granular Computing," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Kozlova, Mariia, 2017. "Real option valuation in renewable energy literature: Research focus, trends and design," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 180-196.
    7. Ma, Yiju & Swandi, Kevin & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2020. "Multi-stage compound real options valuation in residential PV-Battery investment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    8. Ma, Yiju & Chapman, Archie C. & Verbič, Gregor, 2022. "Valuation of compound real options for co-investment in residential battery systems," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 318(C).

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