IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fru/finjrn/170206p64-75.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of the Predictive Ability of Single and Multi-Regime Models of Stock Market Dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Vadim Ye. Zyamalov

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, Moscow 119571, Russia)

Abstract

Stock indices are one of the indicators of the general state of the economy. Therefore, modelling and forecasting of stock indices are discussed heavily for several decades. In this paper, the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Russian stock indices is discussed and investigated by author. In particular, the impact of external trade characteristics and foreign stock indices is analyzed. In addition, several econometric models are compared in the article due to their predictive ability. The author also investigates a predictive ability of vector autoregression (VAR) and vector smooth transition autoregression (VSTAR) models.

Suggested Citation

  • Vadim Ye. Zyamalov, 2017. "Comparison of the Predictive Ability of Single and Multi-Regime Models of Stock Market Dynamics," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 2, pages 64-75, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:170206:p:64-75
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nifi.ru/images/FILES/Journal/Archive/2017/2/statii_2/fm_2017_2_06.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jun, Sang-Gyung & Marathe, Achla & Shawky, Hany A., 2003. "Liquidity and stock returns in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 1-24, March.
    2. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    3. Mauro, Paolo, 2003. "Stock returns and output growth in emerging and advanced economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 129-153, June.
    4. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation and the Stock Market," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 186-198, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fama, Eugene F, 1981. "Stock Returns, Real Activity, Inflation, and Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(4), pages 545-565, September.
    6. Arora, Vipin & Tyers, Rod, 2012. "Asset arbitrage and the price of oil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 142-150.
    7. Paul, Satya & Mallik, Girijasankar, 2003. "Macroeconomic Factors and Bank and Finance Stock Prices: The Australian Experience," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 23-30, March.
    8. Fama, Eugene F, 1990. "Stock Returns, Expected Returns, and Real Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1089-1108, September.
    9. Homa, Kenneth E & Jaffee, Dwight M, 1971. "The Supply of Money and Common Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1045-1066, December.
    10. Luo, Robin & Visaltanachoti, Nuttawat, 2010. "Real exchange rates, asset prices and terms of trade: A theoretical analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 143-151, January.
    11. Lawrence H. Summers, 1981. "Inflation and the Valuation of Corporate Equities," NBER Working Papers 0824, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bernd Hayo & Ali Kutan, 2002. "The Impact of News, Oil Prices, and International Spillovers on Russian Financial Markets," Finance 0209001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bilson, Christopher M. & Brailsford, Timothy J. & Hooper, Vincent J., 2001. "Selecting macroeconomic variables as explanatory factors of emerging stock market returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 401-426, August.
    14. Abugri, Benjamin A., 2008. "Empirical relationship between macroeconomic volatility and stock returns: Evidence from Latin American markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 396-410.
    15. Yuko Hashimoto & Takatoshi Ito, 2004. "High-Frequency Contagion Between the Exchange Rates and Stock Prices," NBER Working Papers 10448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Schwert, G William, 1981. "The Adjustment of Stock Prices to Information about Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 36(1), pages 15-29, March.
    17. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 9(1), pages 19-50, January.
    18. Turuntseva, M. & Zyamalov, V., 2016. "Stock Markets under the Changing Terms of Trade," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 93-109.
    19. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. "Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    20. Engsted, Tom & Tanggaard, Carsten, 2002. "The relation between asset returns and inflation at short and long horizons," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 101-118, April.
    21. Michael T. Bond & James R. Webb, 1995. "Real Estate versus Financial Asset Returns and Inflation: Can a P* Trading Strategy Improve REIT Investment Performance?," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(3), pages 327-334.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vadim Ye. Zyamalov, 2022. "Applying the Multi Regime Models to the Modelling the Dynamics of Financial Time Series [Использование Многорежимных Моделей Для Моделирования Динамики Финансовых Временных Рядов]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 5, pages 13-19, May.
    2. Vadim Ye. Zyamalov, 2022. "Использование Многорежимных Моделей Для Моделирования Динамики Финансовых Временных Рядов," Russian Economic Development (in Russian), Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 5, pages 13-19, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Turuntseva, M. & Zyamalov, V., 2016. "Stock Markets under the Changing Terms of Trade," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 93-109.
    2. Shakizada Niyazbekova & Igor Grekov & Tatiana Blokhina, 2016. "The Influence Of Macroeconomic Factors To The Dynamics Of Stock Exchange In The Republic Of Kazakhstan," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 1263-1273.
    3. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
    4. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Dene Hurley & Román Ferrer, 2021. "U.S. stock prices and macroeconomic fundamentals: Fresh evidence using the quantile ARDL approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 3569-3587, July.
    5. GIRI A. K. & JOSHI Pooja, 2017. "The Impact Of Macroeconomic Indicators On Indian Stock Prices: An Empirical Analysis," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 12(1), pages 61-78, April.
    6. Heimonen, Kari, 2010. "Money and equity returns in the Euro area," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 152-169.
    7. Kuwornu, John K.M., 2012. "Effect of Macroeconomic Variables on the Ghanaian Stock Market Returns: A Co-integration Analysis," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 4(2), pages 1-12, June.
    8. Peter Sellin, 2001. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 491-541, September.
    9. Ram Chandra Bhattarai & Nayan Krishna Joshi, 2009. "Dynamic Relationship among the Stock Market and the Macroeconomic Factors," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 10(2), pages 451-469, July.
    10. Smith, L. Vanessa & Yamagata, Takashi, 2011. "Firm level return–volatility analysis using dynamic panels," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 847-867.
    11. Sellin, Peter, 1998. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Market: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Working Paper Series 72, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    12. Bampinas, Georgios & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2016. "Hedging inflation with individual US stocks: A long-run portfolio analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 374-392.
    13. Sagarika Mishra & Harminder Singh, 2012. "Do macro-economic variables explain stock-market returns? Evidence using a semi-parametric approach," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 13(2), pages 115-127, April.
    14. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-351, June.
    15. Madsen, Jakob B., 2002. "The share market boom and the recent disinflation in the OECD countries: the tax-effects, the inflation-illusion and the risk-aversion hypotheses reconsidered1," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 115-141.
    16. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2021. "Stock market reactions to upside and downside volatility of Bitcoin: A quantile analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    17. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    18. Md Fouad Bin Amin & Mohd Ziaur Rehman, 2022. "Asymmetric Linkages of Oil Prices, Money Supply, and TASI on Sectoral Stock Prices in Saudi Arabia: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440211, January.
    19. Peter Blair Henry, 2002. "Is Disinflation Good for the Stock Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1617-1648, August.
    20. Ekaterini Panopoulou & Nikitas Pittis & Sarantis Kalyvitis, 2010. "Looking far in the past: revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 743-766, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    stock indices; RTSI; trade conditions; multi-regime models; predictive ability; fundamental analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fru:finjrn:170206:p:64-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gennady Ageev (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frigvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.