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Divergence of Opinion, Uncertainty, and the Quality of Intitial Public Offerings

Author

Listed:
  • Todd Houge
  • Tim Loughran
  • Gerry Suchanek
  • Xuemin Yan

Abstract

We explore the relation between investor uncertainty, divergence of opinion, and the performance of initial public offerings (IPOs). We examine three opening-day proxies: the percentage opening spread, time of first trade, and flipping ratio. After controlling for issue quality, we find that all three variables provide significant explanatory power of IPO returns. Specifically, we associate a wide opening spread, late opening trade, and a high flipping ratio with poor long-run returns. The results support Miller (1977), who suggests that greater divergence of opinion or uncertainty about an IPO can generate short-run overvaluation and long-run underperformance.

Suggested Citation

  • Todd Houge & Tim Loughran & Gerry Suchanek & Xuemin Yan, 2001. "Divergence of Opinion, Uncertainty, and the Quality of Intitial Public Offerings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 30(4), Winter.
    • Handle: RePEc:fma:fmanag:timloughran01
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Harjeet S. Bhabra & Richard H. Pettway, 2003. "IPO Prospectus Information and Subsequent Performance," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 369-397, August.
    2. Boulton, Thomas J. & Smart, Scott B. & Zutter, Chad J., 2020. "Worldwide short selling regulations and IPO underpricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Boulton, Thomas J. & Braga-Alves, Marcus V., 2020. "Price stabilization, short selling, and IPO secondary market liquidity," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 278-291.
    4. Cheedradevi Narayanasamy & Izani Ibrahim & Yeoh Ken Kyid, 2018. "Individual Investors Participation And Divergence Of Opinion In New Issue Markets: Evidence From Malaysia," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 12(1), pages 1-22.
    5. Deepika Bagchee, 2009. "Investors Adjust Expectations Around Sell‐Side Analyst Revisions In Ipo Recommendations," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 32(1), pages 53-70, March.
    6. Chemmanur, Thomas & Yan, An, 2017. "Product market advertising, heterogeneous beliefs, and the long-run performance of initial public offerings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-24.
    7. Pegah Dehghani & Ros Zam Zam Sapian, 2014. "Sectoral herding behavior in the aftermarket of Malaysian IPOs," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-246, July.
    8. Daniel J. Bradley & John W. Cooney, Jr. & Steven D. Dolvin & Bradford D. Jordan, 2006. "Penny Stock IPOs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 35(1), Spring.
      • Daniel J. Bradley & John W. Cooney Jr. & Steven D. Dolvin & Bradford D. Jordan, 2006. "Penny Stock IPOs," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 5-29, March.
    9. Anqi Li & Xue Li & Jiayan Liu & Aochen Cao, 2024. "Diversity of Institutional Investors’ Bidding Opinions in Shaping the Sustainability of IPO Performance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(11), pages 1-21, May.
    10. Dong, Xiuliang & Wang, Yiqun & Zhang, Jiaming & Liu, Jianing, 2024. "Sponsor Co-investment, inquiry divergence, and IPO pricing efficiency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(PA).
    11. Guo, Mengmeng & Su, Yun & Zhao, Rui, 2024. "The effect of expanded audit report on IPO underpricing: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Alok R. Saboo & Anindita Chakravarty & Rajdeep Grewal, 2016. "Organizational Debut on the Public Stage: Marketing Myopia and Initial Public Offerings," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 35(4), pages 656-675, July.
    13. Chen, Honghui & Zheng, Minrong, 2021. "IPO underperformance and the idiosyncratic risk puzzle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    14. Panos N. Patatoukas & Richard G. Sloan & Annika Yu Wang, 2022. "Valuation Uncertainty and Short-Sales Constraints: Evidence from the IPO Aftermarket," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 608-634, January.
    15. Boehme, Rodney & Çolak, Gönül, 2012. "Primary market characteristics and secondary market frictions of stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 286-327.
    16. Tanya Gulati & S. K. Bose & Supriyo Roy, 2017. "Short selling restrictions in 2005–2009 in Indian market and underpricing of initial public offerings," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(1), pages 116-135, January.
    17. Jean–Sébastien Michel, 2014. "Return on Recent VC Investment and Long–Run IPO Returns," Entrepreneurship Theory and Practice, , vol. 38(3), pages 527-549, May.
    18. Ikeda, Naoshi, 2023. "Optimism, divergence of investors’ opinions, and the long-run underperformance of IPOs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Feng, Xunan & Johansson, Anders C. & Wei, Dengxi, 2023. "Judging a book by its cover: Analysts and attention-driven price patterns in China's IPO market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. repec:ibf:ijbfre:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:1-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Chia‐Cheng Ho & Chi‐Ling Huang & Chien‐Ting Lin & George Y.C. Lin, 2010. "Managing News Coverage around Initial Public Offerings," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(1), pages 187-225, March.
    22. Turan G. Bali & Andriy Bodnaruk & Anna Scherbina & Yi Tang, 2018. "Unusual News Flow and the Cross Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4137-4155, September.
    23. Kooli, Maher & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2020. "IPO flipping activity in China and its implications," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    24. Sung C. Bae & Kiyoung Chang & Hoje Jo, 2013. "Long-Run Stock and Operating Performance of Underwriter Warrants: Evidence from Seasoned Equity Offerings," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 473-501, December.
    25. Gao, Shenghao & Brockman, Paul & Meng, Qingbin & Yan, Xuemin, 2020. "Differences of opinion, institutional bids, and IPO underpricing," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

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