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Informational overshooting, booms and crashes

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  • Joseph Zeira

Abstract

This paper offers an informational explanation to stock markets' booms and crashes. This explanation builds on the idea of 'informational overshooting': if market fundamentals change for an unknown period of time, prices experience a boom, which ends in a crash, due to informational dynamics. The paper then shows that 'informational overshooting' occurs when the market expands to a new capacity, which is unknown until it is reached. The paper presents two examples for such expansions, one due to increased productivity and one due to entry of new investors to the stock market. One implication is that financial liberalizations tend to be followed by booms and crashes.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Zeira, 2000. "Informational overshooting, booms and crashes," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Apr.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2000:i:apr:x:1
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    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/000421/papers/Boom.pdf
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market;

    JEL classification:

    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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