IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedfel/y2011iaug1n2011-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does headline inflation converge to core?

Author

Listed:
  • Zheng Liu
  • Justin Weidner

Abstract

Recent surges in food and energy prices have pushed up headline inflation to levels well above its underlying trend. In contrast, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, has remained low and stable. Historical data suggest that, since the early 1990s, headline inflation has tended to converge toward core inflation. Thus, high inflation is unlikely to persist as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.

Suggested Citation

  • Zheng Liu & Justin Weidner, 2011. "Does headline inflation converge to core?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug1.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:aug1:n:2011-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-24.html
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation targeting under imperfect knowledge," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-23.
    2. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why Are the 2000s so Different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. John C. Williams, 2015. "The view from here: outlook and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Jamilu Iliyasu & Aliyu R Sanusi & Suleiman O Mamman, 2023. "Testing for explosive behavior in relative inflation measures: Implications for monetary policy under uncertainty," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 934-947.
    3. John C. Williams, 2015. "Looking forward: the path for monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. John C. Williams, 2015. "The view from here: the economic outlook and its implications for monetary policy," Speech 135, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "The sacrifice ratio and core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-421.
    6. Murhula, Pacifique, 2020. "Tendance de l'inflation sous-jacente en RDC: une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR structurelle [Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo: a model based on the Structural VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 105005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jan 2021.
    7. John C. Williams, 2015. "Looking forward, forward looking: the path for monetary policy," Speech 138, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Donald L. Kohn, 2008. "Lessons for central bankers from a Phillips curve framework," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Bilgili, Faik & Mugaloglu, Erhan & Koçak, Emrah, 2018. "The impact of oil prices on CO2 emissions in China: A Wavelet coherence approach," MPRA Paper 90170, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Pham T. T. Trinh & Bui T. T. My, 2023. "The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 37(1), pages 67-87, May.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 227-240.
    6. Jordi Galí & Thijs van Rens, 2021. "The Vanishing Procyclicality of Labour Productivity [Why have business cycle fluctuations become less volatile?]," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(633), pages 302-326.
    7. Alan S. Blinder & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2013. "The Supply-Shock Explanation of the Great Stagflation Revisited," NBER Chapters, in: The Great Inflation: The Rebirth of Modern Central Banking, pages 119-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "Does the volatility of commodity prices reflect macroeconomic uncertainty?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 313-326.
    10. Taiwo Akinlo, 2024. "Oil price and real sector in oil-importing countries: an asymmetric analysis of sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 1-27, February.
    11. Cashin, Paul & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Maziar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2014. "The differential effects of oil demand and supply shocks on the global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 113-134.
    12. Andreopoulos Spyros, 2009. "Oil Matters: Real Input Prices and U.S. Unemployment Revisited," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, March.
    13. Korhonen, Iikka & Mehrotra, Aaron, 2009. "Real exchange rate, output and oil: case of four large energy producers," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2009, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    14. Chandranath Amarasekara & George J. Bratsiotis, 2012. "Monetary policy and real wage cyclicality," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(33), pages 4391-4408, November.
    15. Liddle, Brantley & Parker, Steven, 2022. "One more for the road: Reconsidering whether OECD gasoline income and price elasticities have changed over time," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    16. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Cyriac Guillaumin, 2012. "The Impact of External Shocks in East Asia: Lessons from a Structural VAR Model with Block Exogeneity," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 132, pages 35-89.
    17. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Cunado, Juncal & Hatemi-J, Abdulnasser & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "Oil price-inflation pass-through in the United States over 1871 to 2018: A wavelet coherency analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 51-55.
    18. Piotr Adamczyk, 2022. "Does the Volatility of Oil Price Affect the Structure of Employment? The Role of Exchange Rate Regime and Energy Import Dependency," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-10, September.
    19. Adeosun, Opeoluwa Adeniyi & Tabash, Mosab I. & Anagreh, Suhaib, 2022. "Oil price and economic performance: Additional evidence from advanced economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Mensah, Lord & Obi, Pat & Bokpin, Godfred, 2017. "Cointegration test of oil price and us dollar exchange rates for some oil dependent economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 304-311.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation (Finance);

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:aug1:n:2011-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Research Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbsfus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.