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Have Inflation Dynamics Changed?

Author

Listed:
  • Edward S. Knotek
  • Saeed Zaman

Abstract

Using a flexible statistical model to project inflation outcomes into the future, this Commentary finds that the most likely path for inflation based on recent inflation dynamics is generally similar to what would have been expected given inflation dynamics in the late 1990s, but there is more uncertainty around the forecast now than in the late 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Edward S. Knotek & Saeed Zaman, 2017. "Have Inflation Dynamics Changed?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue November.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcec:00084
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    File URL: https://www.clevelandfed.org/newsroom-and-events/publications/economic-commentary/2017-economic-commentaries/ec-201721-have-inflation-dynamics-changed.aspx
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pär Stockhammar & Pär Österholm, 2018. "Do inflation expectations granger cause inflation?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 35(2), pages 403-431, August.
    2. Karlsson, Sune & Österholm, Pär, 2018. "Is the US Phillips Curve Stable? Evidence from Bayesian VARs," Working Papers 2018:5, Örebro University, School of Business.
    3. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2020. "A note on the stability of the Swedish Phillips curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2573-2612, December.
    4. Sune Karlsson & Pär Österholm, 2023. "Is the US Phillips curve stable? Evidence from Bayesian vector autoregressions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 125(1), pages 287-314, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; forecasting;

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