Household Consumption and VAT Revenue in Poland

Purpose: Examine dependencies between the size and the structure of directional household expenditure on consumption and the amount of VAT tax revenue for the state budget in Poland, in connection with the explanation of fluctuations of households’ VAT contributions per capita. Design/methodology/approach: The study used the following methods: literature review, methods applied in descriptive statistics, linear models of multiple regression, factor analysis using the method of main components, and a single-factor variance analysis (ANOVA). Detailed analyses were conducted based on own calculations using analytical software SPSS (Predictive Solutions), Statistica and MS Excel calculation sheet. Findings: Our results show: 1) household consumption, understood as incurring expenses to purchase goods and services which takes place in the economy of a state, is the principal creator of state budget revenue based on VAT; 2) the level of VAT revenue from household consumption depends on the financial resources at the households’ disposal, the way they spend them and the structure of such expenditure; 3) households are very diverse internally, while the size and structure of their purchases varies in time and is determined by many factors; 4) a diversified rate of VAT on particular goods and services purchased by households has a major impact on the level of state budget revenue from VAT returns; 5) financial transfers to households, which express a variety of social policy instruments applied by the state, including the pro-family policy, result in the increase of the state revenue from VAT; the effectiveness of such transfers – both for the realisation of state policy, as well as the increase of its tax revenue – can be stimulated by the appropriate matrix of VAT rates; 6) the limited availability or the lack of particular statistical data regarding the VAT burden on household expenditure, and the structure of state budget revenue based on VAT in the cross-section of tax rates, decreases analytical potential and the possibilities of drawing conclusions. Practical Implications: The conclusions drawn from the conducted analyses and research can be useful for the state when selecting the tools which not only will allow for the increase of its budgetary revenues, but also the effective realization of the aims of its social policy. Originality/value: Extending the research on VAT with the analysis of the tax potential of households’ purchasing decisions with the inclusion of the VAT matrix as well as the fiscal and non-fiscal objectives of state policy. The proposed methodological path allows for its popularisation with the use of panel data.