IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ers/ijfirm/v12y2022i3p125-140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Comparison of Rainfall and GDP: Feasibility of Introducing Rainfall Derivatives in the Indian Weather Risk Market

Author

Listed:
  • Dileep N

Abstract

Purpose: The rainfall is an economic indicator for the Indian economy. Because more than half of the Indian population is engaged in agriculture, and they depend on rainfall for their farming activities, along with farming, other sectors like manufacturing, transportation, banking, construction, and others are directly or indirectly affected by rainfall. The proposed study attempts to know the interrelationship between the changes in rainfall and the GDP growth rate. The study demonstrates the opportunity and feasibility of introducing rainfall index-based derivatives in the Indian weather risk market. Design/methodology/approach: The study considered the average annual rainfall data of all 36 meteorological subdivisions collected by the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). The GDP annual growth rate data was obtained from the World Bank's official website, https://www.worldbank.org. The study performed simple correlation and regression with the SPSS software. Findings: The results of the correlation matrix show that there is a positive interrelationship between the selected two variables. According to the regression analysis, rainfall has a significant positive effect on India's GDP growth rate. This result shows that there is a need for rainfall index based derivatives in the Indian weather risk market to absorb the rainfall risk. Practical implications: The result of this paper helps to rainfall-dependent industries to absorb the rainfall risk that affects their business revenue. Even insurance and reinsurance companies can also use these kinds of derivatives to hedge the pooled rainfall risk of the public. The government can take steps to frame the policies related to the trading of these instruments on the exchanges. The researcher can carry out further studies on the pricing of rainfall index-based derivatives. Originality value: According to the authors' knowledge, this is the first empirical study to determine the interrelationship between the changes in rainfall and the GDP growth rate over a longer period of time.

Suggested Citation

  • Dileep N, 2022. "Comparison of Rainfall and GDP: Feasibility of Introducing Rainfall Derivatives in the Indian Weather Risk Market," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 12(3), pages 125-140.
    • Handle: RePEc:ers:ijfirm:v:12:y:2022:i:3:p:125-140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journalfirm.com/journal/328/download
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oliver Musshoff & Martin Odening & Wei Xu, 2009. "Management of climate risks in agriculture-will weather derivatives permeate?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(9), pages 1067-1077.
    2. Anil K. Sharma & Ashutosh Vashishtha, 2007. "Weather derivatives: risk-hedging prospects for agriculture and power sectors in India," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 112-132, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Biases in Farm-Level Yield Risk Analysis due to Data Aggregation," German Journal of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin, Department for Agricultural Economics, vol. 61(01), pages 1-14, February.
    2. Zhiwei Shen & Martin Odening, 2013. "Coping with systemic risk in index-based crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(1), pages 1-13, January.
    3. Bokusheva, Raushan, 2010. "Measuring the dependence structure between yield and weather variables," MPRA Paper 22786, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Monika Wieczorek-Kosmala, 2020. "Weather Risk Management in Energy Sector: The Polish Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Mr. Dileep N, 2023. "Comparison of Rainfall and GDP: Feasibility of Introducing Rainfall Derivatives in the Indian Weather Risk Market," International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA), vol. 0(1), pages 149-164.
    6. Ines Kapphan & Pierluigi Calanca & Annelie Holzkaemper, 2012. "Climate Change, Weather Insurance Design and Hedging Effectiveness," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 37(2), pages 286-317, April.
    7. M. Ritter & O. Mußhoff & M. Odening, 2014. "Minimizing Geographical Basis Risk of Weather Derivatives Using A Multi-Site Rainfall Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(1), pages 67-86, June.
    8. Filonov, Vitaly & Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2011. "Applications of copulas to Analysis of Efficiency of Weather Derivatives as Primary Crop Insurance Instruments," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 103972, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Finger, Robert, 2012. "How strong is the “natural hedge”? The effects of crop acreage and aggregation levels," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122538, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    10. Dileep N & G. KOTRESHWAR, 2023. "Theoretical framework to introduce rainfall index-based futures contracts in India," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(2(635), S), pages 183-198, Summer.
    11. Kapphan, Ines, 2011. "Weather insurance design with optimal hedging effectiveness," MPRA Paper 35861, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Finger, Robert, 2012. "Biases in Farm-Level Yield Risk Analysis due to Data Aggregation," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 61(1).
    13. Garima Taneja & Barun Deb Pal & Pramod K. Joshi & Pramod K. Aggarwal & N. K. Tyagi, 2014. "Farmers’ Preferences for Climate-Smart Agriculture: An Assessment in the Indo-Gangetic Plain," Working Papers id:5806, eSocialSciences.
    14. Å tulec, Ivana & Petljak, Kristina & Naletina, Dora, 2019. "Weather impact on retail sales: How can weather derivatives help with adverse weather deviations?," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-10.
    15. Finger, Robert & Lehmann, Niklaus, 2011. "Do Direct Payments Influence Farmers' Hail Insurance Decisions?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114355, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Raushan Bokusheva, 2011. "Measuring dependence in joint distributions of yield and weather variables," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 71(1), pages 120-141, May.
    17. von Davier, Zazie & Heyder, Matthias & Theuvsen, Ludwig, 2010. "Media Analysis on Volatile Markets’ Dynamics and Adaptive Behavior for the Agri-Food System," International Journal on Food System Dynamics, International Center for Management, Communication, and Research, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12, October.
    18. Liu, Xiaoliang & Xu, Wei & Odening, Martin, 2011. "Can crop yield risk be globally diversified?," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2011-018, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    19. Ivana Štulec, 2017. "Effectiveness of Weather Derivatives as a Risk Management Tool in Food Retail: The Case of Croatia," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, January.
    20. Robert Finger & Niklaus Lehmann, 2012. "The influence of direct payments on farmers’ hail insurance decisions," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 343-354, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rainfall Derivatives; Rainfall Index Based Futures; full-fledged rainfall risk market; GDP growth rate and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ers:ijfirm:v:12:y:2022:i:3:p:125-140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Marios Agiomavritis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journalfirm.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.