IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eme/jfeppp/jfep-11-2016-0074.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic policy uncertainty, market returns and expected return predictability

Author

Listed:
  • Frederick A. Adjei
  • Mavis Adjei

Abstract

Purpose - Using the economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index as a proxy for the level of EPU, we study the impact of the level of EPU on the conditional mean of market returns and we examine the predictive power of EPU on future market returns. Design/methodology/approach - We employ a GARCH-in-Mean model with exogenous variables. Findings - The results show that even after controlling for business cycle effects, EPU is inversely related to contemporaneous market returns. Particularly, the authors find that the negative impact of EPU subsists only during recessions or recessionary states of the economy, and has no discernible effects during expansionary periods. Originality/value - This is the first study to examine the predictive power of EPU on future market returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Frederick A. Adjei & Mavis Adjei, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty, market returns and expected return predictability," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(3), pages 242-259, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:jfep-11-2016-0074
    DOI: 10.1108/JFEP-11-2016-0074
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JFEP-11-2016-0074/full/html?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JFEP-11-2016-0074/full/pdf?utm_source=repec&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=repec
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1108/JFEP-11-2016-0074?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lirios Alos-Simo & Antonio J. Verdu-Jover & Jose M. Gomez-Gras, 2020. "Knowledge Transfer in Sustainable Contexts: A Comparative Analysis of Periods of Financial Recession and Expansion," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Michael E Araki & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Antonio C. F. Pinto, 2018. "Carry trades and economic policy uncertainty: measuring the political dimension of the forward rate bias in emerging countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(3), pages 1476-1484.
    3. Raza, Syed Ali & Masood, Amna & Benkraiem, Ramzi & Urom, Christian, 2023. "Forecasting the volatility of precious metals prices with global economic policy uncertainty in pre and during the COVID-19 period: Novel evidence from the GARCH-MIDAS approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    4. Carmen Orden‐Cruz & Jessica Paule‐Vianez & Júlio Lobão, 2023. "The effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on the credit risk of US commercial banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(3), pages 3420-3436, July.
    5. Chen, Wen-Yi & Chen, Mei-Ping, 2022. "Twitter’s daily happiness sentiment, economic policy uncertainty, and stock index fluctuations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Khan, Muhammad Asif & Khan, Muhammad Atif & Abdulahi, Mohamued Elyas & Liaqat, Idrees & Shah, Sayyed Sadaqat Hussain, 2019. "Institutional quality and financial development: The United States perspective," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 67-80.
    7. Huang, Jianbai & Dong, Xuesong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhong, Meirui, 2022. "Do oil prices and economic policy uncertainty matter for precious metal returns? New insights from a TVP-VAR framework," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 433-445.
    8. Aslam, Faheem & Zil-e-huma, & Bibi, Rashida & Ferreira, Paulo, 2022. "Cross-correlations between economic policy uncertainty and precious and industrial metals: A multifractal cross-correlation analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Garima Goel & Saumya Ranjan Dash & Mário Nuno Mata & António Bento Caleiro & João Xavier Rita & José António Filipe, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Return Momentum," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-17, March.
    10. Muhammad Atif Khan & Muhammad Asif Khan & Kishwar Ali & József Popp & Judit Oláh, 2020. "Natural Resource Rent and Finance: The Moderation Role of Institutions," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-23, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial Markets; Financial Economics; P43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • P43 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Finance; Public Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:jfep-11-2016-0074. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Emerald Support (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.