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The emotional cost-of-carry: Chinese investor sentiment and equity index futures basis

Author

Listed:
  • Song Cao
  • Ziran Li
  • Kees G. Koedijk
  • Xiang Gao

Abstract

Purpose - While the classic futures pricing tool works well for capital markets that are less affected by sentiment, it needs further modification in China's case as retail investors constitute a large portion of the Chinese stock market participants. Their expectations of the rate of return are prone to emotional swings. This paper, therefore, explores the role of investor sentiment in explaining futures basis changes via the channel of implied discount rates. Design/methodology/approach - Using Chinese equity market data from 2010 to 2019, the authors augment the cost-of-carry model for pricing stock index futures by incorporating the investor sentiment factor. This design allows us to estimate the basis in a better way that reflects the relationship between the underlying index price and its futures price. Findings - The authors find strong evidence that the measure of Chinese investor sentiment drives the abnormal fluctuations in the basis of China's stock index futures. Moreover, this driving force turns out to be much less prominent for large-cap stocks, liquid contracting frequencies, regulatory loosening periods and mature markets, further verifying the sentiment argument for basis mispricing. Originality/value - This study contributes to the literature by relying on investor sentiment measures to explain the persistent discount anomaly of index futures basis in China. This finding is of great importance for Chinese investors with the intention to implement arbitrage, hedging and speculation strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Song Cao & Ziran Li & Kees G. Koedijk & Xiang Gao, 2022. "The emotional cost-of-carry: Chinese investor sentiment and equity index futures basis," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(3), pages 451-476, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:cfripp:cfri-07-2021-0144
    DOI: 10.1108/CFRI-07-2021-0144
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shi, Chunpei & Wei, Yu & Li, Xiafei & Liu, Yuntong, 2023. "Combination forecasts of China's oil futures returns based on multiple uncertainties and their connectedness with oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Wang, Jiaxin & Wu, Guilin & Huang, Xiang & Sun, Di & Song, Zilong, 2023. "Peer effects of corporate product quality information disclosure: Learning and competition," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    3. Wang, Fang & Gacesa, Marko, 2023. "Semi-strong efficient market of Bitcoin and Twitter: An analysis of semantic vector spaces of extracted keywords and light gradient boosting machine models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Investor sentiment; Equity index futures; Basis; Cost-of-carry model; G12; G13; G14; G41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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