Evaluating optimal purchasing and selling decisions of beef cattle replacement females

Purpose - The objective of this research was to determine the optimal age and pregnancy status for buying and selling replacement of beef females for risk-neutral and risk-averse producers. Design/methodology/approach - A hedonic pricing model was estimated to measure how age, pregnancy status, breed and cull cow prices impact the sale price of these cattle. Data came from an annual heifer and cow sale in Tennessee between 2009 and 2018. A financial simulation model was developed to generate distributions of net present value (NPV) for buying replacement females at various ages and pregnancy status and then selling that female at various ages and pregnancy status. Findings - The hedonic pricing model indicates sale prices were highest for five-year-old cows that were between four to five months pregnant. NPV was higher for buying heifers versus buying cows and for buying an open female versus a pregnant female. Regardless of age and pregnancy status when purchased, NPV was higher when the female was sold as pregnant prior to the end of her productive life. The risk analysis showed that risk aversion, buying older open cows and selling them as pregnant earlier in their productive life was preferred Originality/value - This research offers unique insight into how pregnancy status and age at sale impacts the animal's NPV while considering risk. These results have implications for educating producers on purchasing and selling decisions of heifers and cows as well as for lenders who finance these purchases.