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On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal

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  • de Jong, Gerard C.
  • Bliemer, Michiel C.J.

Abstract

In many countries, decision-making on proposals for national or regional infrastructure projects in passenger and freight transport includes carrying out a cost–benefit analysis for these projects. Reductions in travel times are usually a key benefit. However, if a project also reduces the variability of travel time, travellers, freight operators and shippers will enjoy additional benefits, the ‘reliability benefits’. Until now, these benefits are usually not included in the cost–benefit analysis. To include reliability of travel or transport time in the cost–benefit analysis of infrastructure projects not only monetary values of reliability, but also reliability forecasting models are needed. As a result of an extensive feasibility study carried out for the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development this paper aims to provide a literature overview and outcomes of an expert panel on how best to calculate and monetise reliability benefits, synthesised into recommendations for implementing travel time reliability into existing transport models in the short, medium, and long term. The paper focuses on road transport, which has also been the topic for most of the available literature on modelling and valuing transport time reliability.

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  • de Jong, Gerard C. & Bliemer, Michiel C.J., 2015. "On including travel time reliability of road traffic in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 80-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:73:y:2015:i:c:p:80-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2015.01.006
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    3. Zhaoqi Zang & Richard Batley & Xiangdong Xu & David Z. W. Wang, 2022. "On the value of distribution tail in the valuation of travel time variability," Papers 2207.06293, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    4. Zhang, Guozheng & Wang, Dianhai & Cai, Zhengyi & Zeng, Jiaqi, 2024. "Competitiveness of public transit considering travel time reliability: A case study for commuter trips in Hangzhou, China," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    5. Li, Zheng, 2018. "Unobserved and observed heterogeneity in risk attitudes: Implications for valuing travel time savings and travel time variability," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 12-18.
    6. David, Quentin & Kilani, Moez, 2022. "Transport policies in polycentric cities," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 101-117.
    7. Li, Zheng & Hensher, David A. & Rose, John M., 2010. "Willingness to pay for travel time reliability in passenger transport: A review and some new empirical evidence," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 384-403, May.
    8. Li, Baibing, 2019. "Measuring travel time reliability and risk: A nonparametric approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 152-171.
    9. Jie Liu & Paul Schonfeld & Jinqu Chen & Yong Yin & Qiyuan Peng, 2021. "Perceived Trip Time Reliability and Its Cost in a Rail Transit Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-22, July.
    10. Shams, Kollol & Asgari, Hamidreza & Jin, Xia, 2017. "Valuation of travel time reliability in freight transportation: A review and meta-analysis of stated preference studies," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 228-243.
    11. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    12. Bimpou, Konstantina & Ferguson, Neil S., 2020. "Dynamic accessibility: Incorporating day-to-day travel time reliability into accessibility measurement," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    13. Xiao, Yu & Coulombel, Nicolas & Palma, André de, 2017. "The valuation of travel time reliability: does congestion matter?," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 113-141.
    14. Eric Kroes & Paul Koster & Stefanie Peer, 2018. "A practical method to estimate the benefits of improved road network reliability: an application to departing air passengers," Transportation, Springer, vol. 45(5), pages 1433-1448, September.
    15. Emily K. M. Moylan & Michiel C. J. Bliemer & Taha Hossein Rashidi, 2022. "Travellers’ perceptions of travel time reliability in the presence of rare events," Transportation, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1157-1181, August.
    16. Eliasson, Jonas, 2019. "Modelling reliability benefits," MPRA Paper 94817, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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