IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/teinso/v75y2023ics0160791x23002038.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on the identification and formation mechanism of the main path of digital technology diffusion: Empirical evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhou, Yong
  • Yang, Qijin
  • Lu, Shuo

Abstract

The diffusion of digital technology has brought a subversive impact on the technological development of various industries, but the diffusion path and formation mechanism of digital technology in various industries have not been clear. In this paper, the patent data of 97 Chinese national economic industries from 2000 to 2019 were used to construct the citation network, and the Search Path Count (SPC) and critical path algorithm were used to identify the main path of digital technology diffusion among industries. This paper analyzes the formation mechanism of the main path of digital technology diffusion from four dimensions of technology characteristics by using exponential random graph model (ERGM). Through the identification of the diffusion main paths, it is found that the 13 digital technology diffusion main paths are disconnected and involve significant differences in technology fields, core technologies, major cities and institutions, possibly due to the influence of industry boundaries and industry heterogeneity. The results of the exponential random graph model show that technology combinatorial opportunity and technology proximity have significant positive effects on the formation of diffusion main path, while technical knowledge diversity and technical cooperative potential have significant negative effects on the formation of diffusion main path. In addition, the endogenous network structure variables have a significant positive impact on the formation of the main path of digital technology diffusion. These findings reveal the current trend and direction of China's digital technology development, which provides an important basis for technology developers and policy makers to choose the path of digital technology development, and provides effective guidance for traditional industries to grasp the development opportunities brought by digital technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhou, Yong & Yang, Qijin & Lu, Shuo, 2023. "Research on the identification and formation mechanism of the main path of digital technology diffusion: Empirical evidence from China," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:teinso:v:75:y:2023:i:c:s0160791x23002038
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techsoc.2023.102398
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160791X23002038
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.techsoc.2023.102398?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vasant Dhar & Arun Sundararajan, 2007. "Issues and Opinions---Information Technologies in Business: A Blueprint for Education and Research," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 18(2), pages 125-141, June.
    2. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Huang, Lu & Guo, Ying & Porter, Alan L., 2013. "Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 267-285.
    3. Henning Kagermann, 2015. "Change Through Digitization—Value Creation in the Age of Industry 4.0," Springer Books, in: Horst Albach & Heribert Meffert & Andreas Pinkwart & Ralf Reichwald (ed.), Management of Permanent Change, edition 127, chapter 2, pages 23-45, Springer.
    4. Bart Verspagen, 2007. "Mapping Technological Trajectories As Patent Citation Networks: A Study On The History Of Fuel Cell Research," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 93-115.
    5. Dejian Yu & Libo Sheng, 2020. "Knowledge diffusion paths of blockchain domain: the main path analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(1), pages 471-497, October.
    6. Fischer, Eileen & Reuber, A. Rebecca, 2011. "Social interaction via new social media: (How) can interactions on Twitter affect effectual thinking and behavior?," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 1-18, January.
    7. Nicoletti, Giuseppe & von Rueden, Christina & Andrews, Dan, 2020. "Digital technology diffusion: A matter of capabilities, incentives or both?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Corinne Autant‐Bernard & James P. LeSage, 2011. "Quantifying Knowledge Spillovers Using Spatial Econometric Models," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(3), pages 471-496, August.
    9. Al-Emran, Mostafa & Griffy-Brown, Charla, 2023. "The role of technology adoption in sustainable development: Overview, opportunities, challenges, and future research agendas," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Halleck Vega, Solmaria & Mandel, Antoine, 2018. "Technology Diffusion and Climate Policy: A Network Approach and its Application to Wind Energy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 461-471.
    11. Dosi, Giovanni, 1993. "Technological paradigms and technological trajectories : A suggested interpretation of the determinants and directions of technical change," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 102-103, April.
    12. Berg, S. & Wustmans, M. & Bröring, S., 2019. "Identifying first signals of emerging dominance in a technological innovation system: A novel approach based on patents," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 706-722.
    13. Youngjin Yoo & Richard J. Boland & Kalle Lyytinen & Ann Majchrzak, 2012. "Organizing for Innovation in the Digitized World," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(5), pages 1398-1408, October.
    14. Jeffrey T. Macher & Christopher Boerner, 2012. "Technological development at the boundaries of the firm: a knowledge‐based examination in drug development," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9), pages 1016-1036, September.
    15. Adam B. Jaffe & Manuel Trajtenberg & Rebecca Henderson, 1993. "Geographic Localization of Knowledge Spillovers as Evidenced by Patent Citations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 577-598.
    16. Capaldo, Antonio & Messeni Petruzzelli, Antonio, 2011. "In search of alliance-level relational capabilities: Balancing innovation value creation and appropriability in R&D alliances," Scandinavian Journal of Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 273-286, September.
    17. Malhotra, Abhishek & Zhang, Huiting & Beuse, Martin & Schmidt, Tobias, 2021. "How do new use environments influence a technology's knowledge trajectory? A patent citation network analysis of lithium-ion battery technology," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    18. Deborah Dougherty & Danielle D. Dunne, 2012. "Digital Science and Knowledge Boundaries in Complex Innovation," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(5), pages 1467-1484, October.
    19. Samer Faraj & Sirkka L. Jarvenpaa & Ann Majchrzak, 2011. "Knowledge Collaboration in Online Communities," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 22(5), pages 1224-1239, October.
    20. Beretta, Elena & Fontana, Magda & Guerzoni, Marco & Jordan, Alexander, 2018. "Cultural dissimilarity: Boon or bane for technology diffusion?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 95-103.
    21. Wang, Lili & Jiang, Shan & Zhang, Shiyun, 2020. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of 3D printing technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    22. Kim, Dong-hyu & Lee, Heejin & Kwak, Jooyoung, 2017. "Standards as a driving force that influences emerging technological trajectories in the converging world of the Internet and things: An investigation of the M2M/IoT patent network," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(7), pages 1234-1254.
    23. Junmo Kim & Juneseuk Shin, 2018. "Mapping extended technological trajectories: integration of main path, derivative paths, and technology junctures," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 1439-1459, September.
    24. Bodo, Peter, 2016. "MADness in the method: On the volatility and irregularity of technology diffusion," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 2-11.
    25. Martinelli, Arianna, 2012. "An emerging paradigm or just another trajectory? Understanding the nature of technological changes using engineering heuristics in the telecommunications switching industry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 414-429.
    26. Ann Bartel & Casey Ichniowski & Kathryn Shaw, 2007. "How Does Information Technology Affect Productivity? Plant-Level Comparisons of Product Innovation, Process Improvement, and Worker Skills," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(4), pages 1721-1758.
    27. Joan Penner‐Hahn & J. Myles Shaver, 2005. "Does international research and development increase patent output? An analysis of Japanese pharmaceutical firms," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(2), pages 121-140, February.
    28. Adam M. Kleinbaum & Toby E. Stuart & Michael L. Tushman, 2013. "Discretion Within Constraint: Homophily and Structure in a Formal Organization," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 24(5), pages 1316-1336, October.
    29. John S. Liu & Louis Y.Y. Lu, 2012. "An integrated approach for main path analysis: Development of the Hirsch index as an example," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(3), pages 528-542, March.
    30. Robinson, Douglas K.R. & Lagnau, Axel & Boon, Wouter P.C., 2019. "Innovation pathways in additive manufacturing: Methods for tracing emerging and branching paths from rapid prototyping to alternative applications," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 733-750.
    31. Sarah Kaplan & Keyvan Vakili, 2015. "The double-edged sword of recombination in breakthrough innovation," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(10), pages 1435-1457, October.
    32. Hunter, David R. & Handcock, Mark S. & Butts, Carter T. & Goodreau, Steven M. & Morris, Martina, 2008. "ergm: A Package to Fit, Simulate and Diagnose Exponential-Family Models for Networks," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 24(i03).
    33. Ron Boschma & Anne L. J. ter Wal, 2007. "Knowledge Networks and Innovative Performance in an Industrial District: The Case of a Footwear District in the South of Italy," Industry and Innovation, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 177-199.
    34. Julio Sanchez-Choliz & Francisco Fatas-Villafranca & Gloria Jarne & Isabel Perez-Grasa, 2008. "Endogenous Cyclical Growth With A Sigmoidal Diffusion Of Innovations," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 241-268.
    35. John S. Liu & Louis Y.Y. Lu, 2012. "An integrated approach for main path analysis: Development of the Hirsch index as an example," Journal of the American Society for Information Science and Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 63(3), pages 528-542, March.
    36. Pantano, Eleonora & Vannucci, Virginia, 2019. "Who is innovating? An exploratory research of digital technologies diffusion in retail industry," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 297-304.
    37. Garud, Raghu & Karnoe, Peter, 2003. "Bricolage versus breakthrough: distributed and embedded agency in technology entrepreneurship," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 277-300, February.
    38. Boh, Wai Fong & Evaristo, Roberto & Ouderkirk, Andrew, 2014. "Balancing breadth and depth of expertise for innovation: A 3M story," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 349-366.
    39. Kevin J. Stiroh & Dale W. Jorgenson, 1999. "Information Technology and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 109-115, May.
    40. Dutta, Amitava & Puvvala, Abhinay & Roy, Rahul & Seetharaman, Priya, 2017. "Technology diffusion: Shift happens — The case of iOS and Android handsets," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 28-43.
    41. Elena Ketteni, 2009. "Information technology and economic performance in U.S industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 844-865, August.
    42. Brennecke, Julia & Rank, Olaf, 2017. "The firm’s knowledge network and the transfer of advice among corporate inventors—A multilevel network study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 768-783.
    43. Popkova, Elena G. & De Bernardi, Paola & Tyurina, Yuliya G. & Sergi, Bruno S., 2022. "A theory of digital technology advancement to address the grand challenges of sustainable development," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    44. Nambisan, Satish & Wright, Mike & Feldman, Maryann, 2019. "The digital transformation of innovation and entrepreneurship: Progress, challenges and key themes," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(8), pages 1-1.
    45. Wang, Lei & Chen, Yangyang & Ramsey, Thomas Stephen & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D., 2021. "Will researching digital technology really empower green development?," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    46. Elena Ketteni, 2009. "Information technology and economic performance in U.S industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 844-865, August.
    47. Youngjin Yoo & Ola Henfridsson & Kalle Lyytinen, 2010. "Research Commentary ---The New Organizing Logic of Digital Innovation: An Agenda for Information Systems Research," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 21(4), pages 724-735, December.
    48. Jade Yu-Chieh Lo & Mark Thomas Kennedy, 2015. "Approval in Nanotechnology Patents: Micro and Macro Factors That Affect Reactions to Category Blending," Organization Science, INFORMS, vol. 26(1), pages 119-139, February.
    49. Li, Ganglei & Shao, Yunfei, 2023. "How do top management team characteristics affect digital orientation? Exploring the internal driving forces of firm digitalization," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    50. Bercovitz, Janet & Feldman, Maryann, 2011. "The mechanisms of collaboration in inventive teams: Composition, social networks, and geography," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 81-93, February.
    51. Ruihua Joy Jiang & Qingjiu Tom Tao & Michael D. Santoro, 2010. "Alliance portfolio diversity and firm performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(10), pages 1136-1144, October.
    52. Eric Bartelsman & George van Leeuwen & Michael Polder, 2017. "CDM using a cross-country micro moments database," Economics of Innovation and New Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1-2), pages 168-182, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Chen, Yu-Long & Kumar, Vimal & Daim, Tugrul & Verma, Pratima & Kao, Fang-Chen & Liu, Ruirong, 2023. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of E-payment technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    2. Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Bhatt, Priyanka C. & Kumar, Vimal & Chen, Hsueh-Chen & Chang, Yu-Hsin & Su, Fang-Pei, 2021. "Identifying the impact of patent family on the patent trajectory: A case of thin film solar cells technological trajectories," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2).
    3. Alessandri, Enrico, 2023. "Identifying technological trajectories in the mining sector using patent citation networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Ichiro Watanabe & Soichiro Takagi, 2021. "Technological Trajectory Analysis of Patent Citation Networks: Examining the Technological Evolution of Computer Graphic Processing Systems," The Review of Socionetwork Strategies, Springer, vol. 15(1), pages 1-25, June.
    5. Hwang, Seonho & Shin, Juneseuk, 2019. "Extending technological trajectories to latest technological changes by overcoming time lags," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 142-153.
    6. Flavia Filippin, 2021. "Do main paths reflect technological trajectories? Applying main path analysis to the semiconductor manufacturing industry," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(8), pages 6443-6477, August.
    7. Ichiro Watanabe & Soichiro Takagi, 2022. "NK model-based analysis of technological trajectories: a study on the technological field of computer graphic processing systems," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 119-140, April.
    8. Wang, Lili & Jiang, Shan & Zhang, Shiyun, 2020. "Mapping technological trajectories and exploring knowledge sources: A case study of 3D printing technologies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Chen, Liang & Xu, Shuo & Zhu, Lijun & Zhang, Jing & Xu, Haiyun & Yang, Guancan, 2022. "A semantic main path analysis method to identify multiple developmental trajectories," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    10. Shih-Chang Hung & John S. Liu & Louis Y. Y. Lu & Yu-Chiang Tseng, 2014. "Technological change in lithium iron phosphate battery: the key-route main path analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(1), pages 97-120, July.
    11. Qu, Guannan & Chen, Jin & Zhang, Ruhao & Wang, Luyao & Yang, Yayu, 2023. "Technological search strategy and breakthrough innovation: An integrated approach based on main-path analysis," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    12. Jakob Hoffmann & Johannes Glückler, 2023. "Technological Cohesion and Convergence: A Main Path Analysis of the Bioeconomy, 1900–2020," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-17, August.
    13. Martin Ho & Henry CW Price & Tim S Evans & Eoin O'Sullivan, 2023. "Order in Innovation," Papers 2302.13076, arXiv.org.
    14. Bhatt, Priyanka C. & Lai, Kuei-Kuei & Drave, Vinayak A. & Lu, Tzu-Chuen & Kumar, Vimal, 2023. "Patent analysis based technology innovation assessment with the lens of disruptive innovation theory: A case of blockchain technological trajectories," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    15. Junmo Kim & Juneseuk Shin, 2018. "Mapping extended technological trajectories: integration of main path, derivative paths, and technology junctures," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 116(3), pages 1439-1459, September.
    16. Kim, Erin H.J. & Jeong, Yoo Kyung & Kim, YongHwan & Song, Min, 2022. "Exploring scientific trajectories of a large-scale dataset using topic-integrated path extraction," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1).
    17. John S. Liu & Louis Y. Y. Lu & Mei Hsiu-Ching Ho, 2019. "A few notes on main path analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 119(1), pages 379-391, April.
    18. Dejing Kong & Jianzhong Yang & Lingfeng Li, 2020. "Early identification of technological convergence in numerical control machine tool: a deep learning approach," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(3), pages 1983-2009, December.
    19. Mei Hsiu-Ching Ho & Vincent H. Lin & John S. Liu, 2014. "Exploring knowledge diffusion among nations: a study of core technologies in fuel cells," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 100(1), pages 149-171, July.
    20. Ying Huang & Donghua Zhu & Yue Qian & Yi Zhang & Alan L. Porter & Yuqin Liu & Ying Guo, 2017. "A hybrid method to trace technology evolution pathways: a case study of 3D printing," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 111(1), pages 185-204, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:teinso:v:75:y:2023:i:c:s0160791x23002038. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/technology-in-society .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.