IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v44y2018icp1-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Inventory growth cycles with debt-financed investment

Author

Listed:
  • Grasselli, Matheus R.
  • Nguyen-Huu, Adrien

Abstract

We propose a continuous-time stock-flow consistent model for inventory dynamics in an economy with firms, banks, and households. On the supply side, firms decide on production based on adaptive expectations for sales demand and a desired level of inventories. On the demand side, investment is determined as a function of utilization and profitability and can be financed by debt, whereas consumption is independently determined as a function of income and wealth. Prices adjust sluggishly to both changes in labour costs and inventory. Disequilibrium between expected sales and demand is absorbed by unplanned changes in inventory. This results in a five-dimensional dynamical system for wage share, employment rate, private debt ratio, expected sales, and capacity utilization. We analyze two limiting cases: the long-run dynamics provides a version of the Keen model with effective demand and varying inventories, whereas the short-run dynamics gives rise to behaviour that we interpret as Kitchin cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Grasselli, Matheus R. & Nguyen-Huu, Adrien, 2018. "Inventory growth cycles with debt-financed investment," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-13.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:1-13
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2018.01.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X16300947
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2018.01.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alan S. Blinder & Louis J. Maccini, 1991. "Taking Stock: A Critical Assessment of Recent Research on Inventories," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 73-96, Winter.
    2. Franke, Reiner, 1996. "A Metzlerian model of inventory growth cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 243-262, June.
    3. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
    4. Matheus R. Grasselli & Adrien Nguyen Huu, 2015. "Inflation and Speculation in a Dynamic Macroeconomic Model," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-26, July.
    5. Eugenio Caverzasi & Antoine Godin, 2013. "Stock-flow Consistent Modeling through the Ages," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_745, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Costa Lima, B. & Grasselli, M.R. & Wang, X.-S. & Wu, J., 2014. "Destabilizing a stable crisis: Employment persistence and government intervention in macroeconomics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 30-51.
    7. Wang, Pengfei & Wen, Yi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2014. "What inventories tell us about aggregate fluctuations—A tractable approach to (S,s) policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 196-217.
    8. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky’s “Financial Instability Hypothesis”," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
    9. Alan S. Blinder, 1981. "Retail Inventory Behavior and Business Fluctuations," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 443-520.
    10. Anwar Shaikh, 2009. "Economic Policy In A Growth Context: A Classical Synthesis Of Keynes And Harrod," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 455-494, July.
    11. Moses Abramovitz, 1950. "Inventories and Business Cycles, with Special Reference to Manufacturers' Inventories," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number abra50-1.
    12. Soon Ryoo, 2013. "The Paradox Of Debt And Minsky'S Financial Instability Hypothesis," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 64(1), pages 1-24, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Moreira, Helmar Nunes, 2019. "Some new insights on the empirics of Goodwin's growth-cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 42-54.
    2. repec:hal:cepnwp:hal-02012724 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Giraud, Gaël & Grasselli, Matheus, 2021. "Household debt: The missing link between inequality and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 901-927.
    4. Nguyen-Huu, Adrien & Pottier, Antonin, 2020. "Hicksian traverse revisited: Conditions for the energy transition," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 102-111.
    5. Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "Coupling cycle mechanisms: Minsky debt cycles and the multiplier-accelerator," Working Papers PKWP1904, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    6. Bovari, Emmanuel & Giraud, Gaël & Mc Isaac, Florent, 2018. "Coping With Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent Monetary Macrodynamics of Global Warming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 383-398.
    7. Emmanuel Bovari & Gaël Giraud & Florent McIsaac, 2018. "Carbon Pricing and Global Warming: A Stock-flow Consistent Macro-dynamic Approach," Working Paper 0a6be926-7c78-4aba-a60b-6, Agence française de développement.
    8. Jacobo, Juan, 2022. "A multi time-scale theory of economic growth and cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 143-155.
    9. 'Eric Herbert & and Gael Giraud & Aur'elie Louis-Napol'eon & Christophe Goupil, 2022. "Macroeconomic Dynamics in a finite world: the Thermodynamic Potential Approach," Papers 2204.02038, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    10. Matheus R Grasselli & Alexander Lipton, 2018. "The Broad Consequences of Narrow Banking," Papers 1810.05689, arXiv.org.
    11. Matheus R. Grasselli & Alexander Lipton, 2019. "The Broad Consequences Of Narrow Banking," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-22, February.
    12. Lorenzo Domenico & Maria Cristina Barbieri Góes & Ettore Gallo, 2024. "Distribution, capital intensity and public debt-to-GDP ratio: an input output—stock flow consistent model," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 41(2), pages 395-416, July.
    13. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Capital and inventory investments under quantity constraints: A microfounded Metzlerian model," MPRA Paper 111906, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bec Frédérique & Salem Melika Ben, 2013. "Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 335-343, May.
    2. Maican, Florin & Orth, Matilda, 2018. "Inventory Behavior, Demand, and Productivity in Retail," CEPR Discussion Papers 13308, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Bovari, Emmanuel & Giraud, Gaël & Mc Isaac, Florent, 2018. "Coping With Collapse: A Stock-Flow Consistent Monetary Macrodynamics of Global Warming," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 383-398.
    4. Gaël Giraud & Matheus GRASSELLI, 2017. "The macrodynamics of household debt, growth, and inequality," Working Paper c15af656-d7a4-485c-867f-5, Agence française de développement.
    5. Ogawa, Shogo, 2022. "Capital and inventory investments under quantity constraints: A microfounded Metzlerian model," MPRA Paper 111906, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Yi Wen, 2011. "Input and Output Inventory Dynamics," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 181-212, October.
    7. Maican, Florin & Orth, Matilda, 2021. "Determinants of economies of scope in retail," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    8. Giraud, Gaël & Grasselli, Matheus, 2021. "Household debt: The missing link between inequality and secular stagnation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 901-927.
    9. Soon Ryoo & Peter Skott, 2017. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Rules in an Unstable Economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(3), pages 500-548, July.
    10. Wang, Pengfei & Wen, Yi & Xu, Zhiwei, 2014. "What inventories tell us about aggregate fluctuations—A tractable approach to (S,s) policies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 196-217.
    11. Ogawa, Shogo, 2024. "Perceived and expected quantity constraints in inventory dynamics," MPRA Paper 120629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Zhiwei Xu & Yi Wen & pengfei Wang, 2012. "When Do Inventories Destabilize the Economy? ---A Tractable Approach to (S,s) Policies," 2012 Meeting Papers 288, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Barrett, Adam B., 2018. "Stability of Zero-growth Economics Analysed with a Minskyan Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 228-239.
    14. Maccini, Louis J. & Moore, Bartholomew & Schaller, Huntley, 2015. "Inventory behavior with permanent sales shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 290-313.
    15. Nalewaik, Jeremy & Pinto, Eugénio, 2015. "The response of capital goods shipments to demand over the business cycle," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 62-80.
    16. Jacobo, Juan, 2022. "A multi time-scale theory of economic growth and cycles," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 143-155.
    17. Frederique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(3), pages 2209-2222.
    18. Thomas A. Knetsch, 2005. "Evaluating the German Inventory Cycle Using Data from the Ifo Business Survey," Contributions to Economics, in: Jan-Egbert Sturm & Timo Wollmershäuser (ed.), Ifo Survey Data in Business Cycle and Monetary Policy Analysis, pages 61-92, Springer.
    19. Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J. & Moreira, Helmar Nunes, 2019. "Some new insights on the empirics of Goodwin's growth-cycle model," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 42-54.
    20. Emmanuel Bovari & Gaël Giraud & Florent McIsaac, 2018. "Carbon Pricing and Global Warming: A Stock-flow Consistent Macro-dynamic Approach," Working Paper 0a6be926-7c78-4aba-a60b-6, Agence française de développement.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic dynamics; Business cycles; Inventories; Disequilibrium analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:1-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.