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Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on sovereign default risk

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  • Kanno, Masayasu

Abstract

This study contributes to pandemic-related risk assessment in terms of evaluating the impact on sovereign default risk of macroeconomic factors, as well as COVID-19 deaths and related fiscal policies in G7+5 countries in 2020. To this end, we derive sovereign probabilities of defaults (PDs) and hazard rates from sovereign credit default swap spreads and constant maturity treasury yields. In all countries except Canada, China, and South Africa, risk-neutral PD and hazard rate curves peaked early in the first wave. We evaluate the fluctuation of the credit risk premium and find that it fluctuates at a lower level in a range from Aa to Ba. The logistic panel regression models show that new COVID-19 deaths and related fiscal policies significantly contribute to sovereign default risk. We explore two correlation-based networks associated with a metric distance. In the sovereign default risk network, central nations in terms of weighted-degree centrality affect other nations through economic activities. To conclude, this study extends financial research on sovereign default risk management under a pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Kanno, Masayasu, 2024. "Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on sovereign default risk," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:68:y:2024:i:c:s0275531923003240
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.102198
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Sovereign default risk; Probability of default (PD); Panel regression; Fiscal policy; Correlation-based network;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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