IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reveco/v75y2021icp330-365.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic-systematic risk in financial system: A dynamic ranking based on expectiles

Author

Listed:
  • Garcia-Jorcano, Laura
  • Sanchis-Marco, Lidia

Abstract

We provide an international comparison of rankings for systematic and systemic risk in the financial system and examine whether both types of risk co-exist. The rankings are based on the information provided by a coherent downside risk measure, the expected shortfall (ES), which we compute from expectiles. Using rolling windows, we obtain dynamic rankings for different banks as well as for financial services and insurance firms from different international regions using principal components analysis (PCA). The main evidence for ES5% indicates that banks from Asia are the most systematic and insurance groups from Europe are the most systemic during a crisis period. Our results have implications for supervisors regarding the regulation of financial firms, as well as for investors regarding the incorporation of diversifiable and non-diversifiable risks in their portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Garcia-Jorcano, Laura & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia, 2021. "Systemic-systematic risk in financial system: A dynamic ranking based on expectiles," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 330-365.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:75:y:2021:i:c:p:330-365
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2021.04.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056021000666
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.iref.2021.04.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nucera, Federico & Schwaab, Bernd & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2016. "The information in systemic risk rankings," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 461-475.
    2. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Giannozzi, Alessandro & Menchetti, Fiammetta & Roggi, Oliviero, 2020. "The beauty contest between systemic and systematic risk measures: Assessing the empirical performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 316-332.
    3. Acharya, Viral V., 2009. "A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 224-255, September.
    4. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
    5. Kuan, Chung-Ming & Yeh, Jin-Huei & Hsu, Yu-Chin, 2009. "Assessing value at risk with CARE, the Conditional Autoregressive Expectile models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 261-270, June.
    6. Faisal Baluch & Stanley Mutenga & Chris Parsons, 2011. "Insurance, Systemic Risk and the Financial Crisis," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 36(1), pages 126-163, January.
    7. Eling, Martin & Pankoke, David, 2012. "Systemic Risk in the Insurance Sector – What Do We Know?," Working Papers on Finance 1222, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    8. Castro, Carlos & Ferrari, Stijn, 2014. "Measuring and testing for the systemically important financial institutions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-14.
    9. Diane Pierret, 2015. "Systemic Risk and the Solvency-Liquidity Nexus of Banks," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(3), pages 193-227, June.
    10. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    11. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    12. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2015. "A comparison of Expected Shortfall estimation models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 14-47.
    13. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    15. J. David Cummins & Mary A. Weiss, 2014. "Systemic Risk and The U.S. Insurance Sector," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 81(3), pages 489-528, September.
    16. Straetmans, Stefan & Chaudhry, Sajid M., 2015. "Tail risk and systemic risk of US and Eurozone financial institutions in the wake of the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 191-223.
    17. Alexander, Carol & Sheedy, Elizabeth, 2008. "Developing a stress testing framework based on market risk models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2220-2236, October.
    18. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    19. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2012. "Systemic Risk Contributions," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 42(1), pages 55-83, October.
    20. Michiel Bijlsma & Sander Muns, 2011. "Systemic risk across sectors; Are banks different?," CPB Discussion Paper 175, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    21. Jon Danielsson & Kevin R. James & Marcela Valenzuela & Ilknur Zer, 2016. "Can We Prove a Bank Guilty of Creating Systemic Risk? A Minority Report," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 795-812, June.
    22. Scott E. Harrington, 2009. "The Financial Crisis, Systemic Risk, and the Future of Insurance Regulation," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(4), pages 785-819, December.
    23. Gong, Xiao-Li & Liu, Xi-Hua & Xiong, Xiong & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Financial systemic risk measurement based on causal network connectedness analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 290-307.
    24. Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao & Zhu, Haibin, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 2036-2049, November.
    25. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Nikola Tarashev & Claudio Borio & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2009. "The systemic importance of financial institutions," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    27. Belkacem Abdous & Bruno Remillard, 1995. "Relating quantiles and expectiles under weighted-symmetry," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 47(2), pages 371-384, June.
    28. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    29. Aigner, D J & Amemiya, Takeshi & Poirier, Dale J, 1976. "On the Estimation of Production Frontiers: Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Parameters of a Discontinuous Density Function," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 17(2), pages 377-396, June.
    30. Becker, Kent G & Finnerty, Joseph E & Gupta, Manoj, 1990. "The Intertemporal Relation between the U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1297-1306, September.
    31. Billio, Monica & Caporin, Massimiliano & Frattarolo, Lorenzo & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2023. "Networks in risk spillovers: A multivariate GARCH perspective," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-29.
    32. White, Halbert & Kim, Tae-Hwan & Manganelli, Simone, 2015. "VAR for VaR: Measuring tail dependence using multivariate regression quantiles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 169-188.
    33. Fuchun Li & Héctor Pérez Saiz, 2016. "Measuring Systemic Risk Across Financial Market Infrastructures," Staff Working Papers 16-10, Bank of Canada.
    34. Susanne Emmer & Marie Kratz & Dirk Tasche, 2013. "What is the best risk measure in practice? A comparison of standard measures," Papers 1312.1645, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2015.
    35. Lars Peter Hansen, 2013. "Challenges in Identifying and Measuring Systemic Risk," NBER Chapters, in: Risk Topography: Systemic Risk and Macro Modeling, pages 15-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Sylvain Benoît & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2013. "A Theoretical and Empirical Comparison of Systemic Risk Measures," Working Papers halshs-00746272, HAL.
    37. Zigrand, Jean-Pierre, 2014. "Systems and systemic risk in finance and economics," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 61220, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    38. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    39. Haugom, Erik & Ray, Rina & Ullrich, Carl J. & Veka, Steinar & Westgaard, Sjur, 2016. "A parsimonious quantile regression model to forecast day-ahead value-at-risk," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 196-207.
    40. Sedunov, John, 2016. "What is the systemic risk exposure of financial institutions?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 71-87.
    41. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
    42. Giglio, Stefano & Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2016. "Systemic risk and the macroeconomy: An empirical evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 457-471.
    43. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    44. Viral Acharya & Robert Engle & Matthew Richardson, 2012. "Capital Shortfall: A New Approach to Ranking and Regulating Systemic Risks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 59-64, May.
    45. van Oordt, Maarten R. C. & Zhou, Chen, 2016. "Systematic Tail Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 685-705, April.
    46. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    47. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    48. Villafuerte , James & Yap, Josef T., 2015. "Managing Capital Flows in Asia: An Overview of Key Issues," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 464, Asian Development Bank.
    49. Sobotka, Fabian & Kneib, Thomas, 2012. "Geoadditive expectile regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 755-767.
    50. Newey, Whitney K & Powell, James L, 1987. "Asymmetric Least Squares Estimation and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(4), pages 819-847, July.
    51. James W. Taylor, 2008. "Estimating Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Using Expectiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 231-252, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Laura Garcia-Jorcano & Lidia Sanchis-Marco, 2023. "Measuring Systemic Risk Using Multivariate Quantile-Located ES Models," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 1-72.
    2. Ellis, Scott & Sharma, Satish & Brzeszczyński, Janusz, 2022. "Systemic risk measures and regulatory challenges," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    3. Moratis, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2021. "Measuring the systemic importance of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Anna Denkowska & Stanisław Wanat, 2020. "A Tail Dependence-Based MST and Their Topological Indicators in Modeling Systemic Risk in the European Insurance Sector," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, April.
    5. Das, Sanjiv R. & Kalimipalli, Madhu & Nayak, Subhankar, 2022. "Banking networks, systemic risk, and the credit cycle in emerging markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Matteo Foglia & Eliana Angelini, 2021. "The triple (T3) dimension of systemic risk: Identifying systemically important banks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 7-26, January.
    7. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.
    8. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    9. Eita, Joel Hinaunye & Ngobese, Sibusiso Blessing & Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass, 2020. "An empirical analysis of systemic and macroeconomic risk in South Africa: an application of the quantile regression," MPRA Paper 101493, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    11. Bierth, Christopher & Irresberger, Felix & Weiß, Gregor N.F., 2015. "Systemic risk of insurers around the globe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 232-245.
    12. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Denisa Banulescu-Radu & Christophe Hurlin & Jérémy Leymarie & Olivier Scaillet, 2021. "Backtesting Marginal Expected Shortfall and Related Systemic Risk Measures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(9), pages 5730-5754, September.
    14. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Giannozzi, Alessandro & Menchetti, Fiammetta & Roggi, Oliviero, 2020. "The beauty contest between systemic and systematic risk measures: Assessing the empirical performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 316-332.
    15. van de Leur, Michiel C.W. & Lucas, André & Seeger, Norman J., 2017. "Network, market, and book-based systemic risk rankings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 84-90.
    16. Kanga, Désiré & Soumaré, Issouf & Amenounvé, Edoh, 2023. "Can corporate financing through the stock market create systemic risk? Evidence from the BRVM securities market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    17. Ebrahimi Kahou, Mahdi & Lehar, Alfred, 2017. "Macroprudential policy: A review," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 92-105.
    18. Abendschein, Michael & Grundke, Peter, 2018. "On the ranking consistency of global systemic risk measures: empirical evidence," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181623, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    19. Edward M. H. Lin & Edward W. Sun & Min-Teh Yu, 2018. "Systemic risk, financial markets, and performance of financial institutions," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 579-603, March.
    20. Marina Brogi & Valentina Lagasio & Luca Riccetti, 2021. "Systemic risk measurement: bucketing global systemically important banks," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 319-351, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Expectiles; Expected shortfall; Systematic risk; Systemic risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:75:y:2021:i:c:p:330-365. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620165 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.