IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v87y2016ip2p1003-1015.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of solar and wind forecast uncertainties on demand response of isolated microgrids

Author

Listed:
  • Neves, Diana
  • Brito, Miguel C.
  • Silva, Carlos A.

Abstract

A flexible load management may improve significantly the economic dispatch, especially for isolated energy systems with a significant share of renewables. For that purpose, renewable resources and load forecasts ought to be taken in account for optimal demand response programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Neves, Diana & Brito, Miguel C. & Silva, Carlos A., 2016. "Impact of solar and wind forecast uncertainties on demand response of isolated microgrids," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(P2), pages 1003-1015.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:87:y:2016:i:p2:p:1003-1015
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2015.08.075
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148115302755
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2015.08.075?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2012. "Agent-based modeling for trading wind power with uncertainty in the day-ahead wholesale electricity markets of single-sided auctions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 13-22.
    2. Kavasseri, Rajesh G. & Seetharaman, Krithika, 2009. "Day-ahead wind speed forecasting using f-ARIMA models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1388-1393.
    3. Neves, Diana & Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A., 2015. "Demand response modeling: A comparison between tools," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 288-297.
    4. Pina, André & Silva, Carlos & Ferrão, Paulo, 2012. "The impact of demand side management strategies in the penetration of renewable electricity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 128-137.
    5. O׳Connell, Niamh & Pinson, Pierre & Madsen, Henrik & O׳Malley, Mark, 2014. "Benefits and challenges of electrical demand response: A critical review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 686-699.
    6. Li, Gong & Shi, Jing, 2010. "On comparing three artificial neural networks for wind speed forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(7), pages 2313-2320, July.
    7. Neves, Diana & Silva, Carlos A., 2014. "Modeling the impact of integrating solar thermal systems and heat pumps for domestic hot water in electric systems – The case study of Corvo Island," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 113-124.
    8. Lei, Ma & Shiyan, Luan & Chuanwen, Jiang & Hongling, Liu & Yan, Zhang, 2009. "A review on the forecasting of wind speed and generated power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 915-920, May.
    9. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-Qi & Chen, Chao & Li, Yan-fei, 2010. "A hybrid statistical method to predict wind speed and wind power," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1857-1861.
    10. Cheng, William Y.Y. & Liu, Yubao & Liu, Yuewei & Zhang, Yongxin & Mahoney, William P. & Warner, Thomas T., 2013. "The impact of model physics on numerical wind forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 347-356.
    11. Neves, Diana & Silva, Carlos A. & Connors, Stephen, 2014. "Design and implementation of hybrid renewable energy systems on micro-communities: A review on case studies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 935-946.
    12. Neves, Diana & Silva, Carlos A., 2015. "Optimal electricity dispatch on isolated mini-grids using a demand response strategy for thermal storage backup with genetic algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 436-445.
    13. Montuori, Lina & Alcázar-Ortega, Manuel & Álvarez-Bel, Carlos & Domijan, Alex, 2014. "Integration of renewable energy in microgrids coordinated with demand response resources: Economic evaluation of a biomass gasification plant by Homer Simulator," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 15-22.
    14. Foley, Aoife M. & Leahy, Paul G. & Marvuglia, Antonino & McKeogh, Eamon J., 2012. "Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 1-8.
    15. Haydt, Gustavo & Leal, Vítor & Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A., 2011. "The relevance of the energy resource dynamics in the mid/long-term energy planning models," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 3068-3074.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huang, Pei & Sun, Yongjun, 2019. "A robust control of nZEBs for performance optimization at cluster level under demand prediction uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 215-227.
    2. Pedro, Hugo T.C. & Lim, Edwin & Coimbra, Carlos F.M., 2018. "A database infrastructure to implement real-time solar and wind power generation intra-hour forecasts," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 513-525.
    3. Robert Basmadjian & Amirhossein Shaafieyoun & Sahib Julka, 2021. "Day-Ahead Forecasting of the Percentage of Renewables Based on Time-Series Statistical Methods," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-23, November.
    4. Tianyao Zhang & Weibin Huang & Shijun Chen & Yanmei Zhu & Fuxing Kang & Yerong Zhou & Guangwen Ma, 2023. "The Scheduling Research of a Wind-Solar-Hydro Hybrid System Based on a Sand-Table Deduction Model at Ultra-Short-Term Scales," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(7), pages 1-18, April.
    5. Rasheed, Muhammad Babar & R-Moreno, María D., 2022. "Minimizing pricing policies based on user load profiles and residential demand responses in smart grids," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    6. Hu, Maomao & Xiao, Fu & Wang, Shengwei, 2021. "Neighborhood-level coordination and negotiation techniques for managing demand-side flexibility in residential microgrids," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Obara, Shin'ya & Sato, Katsuaki & Utsugi, Yuta, 2018. "Study on the operation optimization of an isolated island microgrid with renewable energy layout planning," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1211-1225.
    8. Mayank Singh & Rakesh Chandra Jha, 2019. "Object-Oriented Usability Indices for Multi-Objective Demand Side Management Using Teaching-Learning Based Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(3), pages 1-25, January.
    9. Fontenot, Hannah & Dong, Bing, 2019. "Modeling and control of building-integrated microgrids for optimal energy management – A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    10. Ahmed, Adil & Khalid, Muhammad, 2019. "A review on the selected applications of forecasting models in renewable power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 9-21.
    11. Agüera-Pérez, Agustín & Palomares-Salas, José Carlos & González de la Rosa, Juan José & Florencias-Oliveros, Olivia, 2018. "Weather forecasts for microgrid energy management: Review, discussion and recommendations," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 265-278.
    12. Weiwei Cui & Lin Li & Zhiqiang Lu, 2019. "Energy‐efficient scheduling for sustainable manufacturing systems with renewable energy resources," Naval Research Logistics (NRL), John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(2), pages 154-173, March.
    13. Young-Sik Jang & Mun-Kyeom Kim, 2017. "A Dynamic Economic Dispatch Model for Uncertain Power Demands in an Interconnected Microgrid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-16, March.
    14. Mohseni, Soheil & Brent, Alan C. & Kelly, Scott & Browne, Will N., 2022. "Demand response-integrated investment and operational planning of renewable and sustainable energy systems considering forecast uncertainties: A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. Nwulu, Nnamdi I. & Xia, Xiaohua, 2017. "Optimal dispatch for a microgrid incorporating renewables and demand response," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-28.
    16. Hu, Maomao & Xiao, Fu, 2020. "Quantifying uncertainty in the aggregate energy flexibility of high-rise residential building clusters considering stochastic occupancy and occupant behavior," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    17. Samu, Remember & Calais, Martina & Shafiullah, G.M. & Moghbel, Moayed & Shoeb, Md Asaduzzaman & Nouri, Bijan & Blum, Niklas, 2021. "Applications for solar irradiance nowcasting in the control of microgrids: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    18. Bracco, Stefano & Delfino, Federico & Ferro, Giulio & Pagnini, Luisa & Robba, Michela & Rossi, Mansueto, 2018. "Energy planning of sustainable districts: Towards the exploitation of small size intermittent renewables in urban areas," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C), pages 2288-2297.
    19. Zheng, Yingying & Jenkins, Bryan M. & Kornbluth, Kurt & Træholt, Chresten, 2018. "Optimization under uncertainty of a biomass-integrated renewable energy microgrid with energy storage," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 204-217.
    20. Neves, Diana & Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A., 2018. "Assessment of the potential use of demand response in DHW systems on isolated microgrids," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 989-998.
    21. Gandhi, Oktoviano & Zhang, Wenjie & Kumar, Dhivya Sampath & Rodríguez-Gallegos, Carlos D. & Yagli, Gokhan Mert & Yang, Dazhi & Reindl, Thomas & Srinivasan, Dipti, 2024. "The value of solar forecasts and the cost of their errors: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 189(PB).
    22. Pondini, Maddalena & Colla, Valentina & Signorini, Annamaria, 2017. "Models of control valve and actuation system for dynamics analysis of steam turbines," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 208-217.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Jie & Chen, Kuilin & Mori, Junichi & Rashid, Mudassir M., 2013. "A Gaussian mixture copula model based localized Gaussian process regression approach for long-term wind speed prediction," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 673-686.
    2. Ahmed, Adil & Khalid, Muhammad, 2019. "A review on the selected applications of forecasting models in renewable power systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 9-21.
    3. Tascikaraoglu, A. & Uzunoglu, M., 2014. "A review of combined approaches for prediction of short-term wind speed and power," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 243-254.
    4. Neves, Diana & Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A., 2018. "Assessment of the potential use of demand response in DHW systems on isolated microgrids," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 989-998.
    5. Neves, Diana & Pina, André & Silva, Carlos A., 2015. "Demand response modeling: A comparison between tools," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 288-297.
    6. Jung, Jaesung & Broadwater, Robert P., 2014. "Current status and future advances for wind speed and power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 762-777.
    7. Zjavka, Ladislav, 2015. "Wind speed forecast correction models using polynomial neural networks," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 998-1006.
    8. Jannik Schütz Roungkvist & Peter Enevoldsen, 2020. "Timescale classification in wind forecasting: A review of the state‐of‐the‐art," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(5), pages 757-768, August.
    9. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Liang, Xi-feng & Li, Yan-fei, 2015. "Wind speed forecasting approach using secondary decomposition algorithm and Elman neural networks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 183-194.
    10. Liu, Hui & Tian, Hong-qi & Li, Yan-fei, 2012. "Comparison of two new ARIMA-ANN and ARIMA-Kalman hybrid methods for wind speed prediction," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 415-424.
    11. Feijóo, Andrés & Villanueva, Daniel, 2016. "Assessing wind speed simulation methods," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 473-483.
    12. Niu, Tong & Wang, Jianzhou & Zhang, Kequan & Du, Pei, 2018. "Multi-step-ahead wind speed forecasting based on optimal feature selection and a modified bat algorithm with the cognition strategy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 213-229.
    13. Zhao, Yongning & Ye, Lin & Li, Zhi & Song, Xuri & Lang, Yansheng & Su, Jian, 2016. "A novel bidirectional mechanism based on time series model for wind power forecasting," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 793-803.
    14. Guzzi, Francesco & Neves, Diana & Silva, Carlos A., 2017. "Integration of smart grid mechanisms on microgrids energy modelling," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 321-330.
    15. Jha, Sunil Kr. & Bilalovic, Jasmin & Jha, Anju & Patel, Nilesh & Zhang, Han, 2017. "Renewable energy: Present research and future scope of Artificial Intelligence," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 297-317.
    16. Yakoub, Ghali & Mathew, Sathyajith & Leal, Joao, 2023. "Intelligent estimation of wind farm performance with direct and indirect ‘point’ forecasting approaches integrating several NWP models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PD).
    17. Neves, Diana & Silva, Carlos A., 2015. "Optimal electricity dispatch on isolated mini-grids using a demand response strategy for thermal storage backup with genetic algorithms," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 436-445.
    18. Akintayo Temiloluwa Abolude & Wen Zhou, 2018. "Assessment and Performance Evaluation of a Wind Turbine Power Output," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-15, August.
    19. Sandra Minerva Valdivia-Bautista & José Antonio Domínguez-Navarro & Marco Pérez-Cisneros & Carlos Jesahel Vega-Gómez & Beatriz Castillo-Téllez, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence in Wind Speed Forecasting: A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(5), pages 1-28, March.
    20. Daniel J. Sambor & Michelle Wilber & Erin Whitney & Mark Z. Jacobson, 2020. "Development of a Tool for Optimizing Solar and Battery Storage for Container Farming in a Remote Arctic Microgrid," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(19), pages 1-18, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:87:y:2016:i:p2:p:1003-1015. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.