IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/renene/v199y2022icp689-696.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Is ethanol production responsible for the increase in corn prices?

Author

Listed:
  • Kocak, Emrah
  • Bilgili, Faik
  • Bulut, Umit
  • Kuskaya, Sevda

Abstract

This paper aims to investigate the effects of the production of ethanol, a renewable biofuel, oil prices, population, and exchange rate on corn prices in the US (1985:m1-2020:m7) using a nonlinear smooth transition model. According to the findings, (i) ethanol production (β1 = 0.072, p < 0.01) has an increasing effect on corn prices. (ii) Oil prices (β2 = 0.064, p < 0.05) and population (β3 = 0.851, p < 0.01) put a pressure on corn prices. (iii) The increase in the real exchange rate (β4 = −2.142, p < 0.01) has a decreasing effect on corn prices. The estimation results provide several critical policy implications for ethanol-food competition within the framework of sustainable development policies. First, ethanol production puts pressure on corn prices. Second, policy-oriented research on the biofuel-food competition can provide guidance to ensure sustainability. Finally, in the transformation process of the ethanol industry, technological innovations (use of second or third-generation biofuels) can moderate the food-fuel nexus.

Suggested Citation

  • Kocak, Emrah & Bilgili, Faik & Bulut, Umit & Kuskaya, Sevda, 2022. "Is ethanol production responsible for the increase in corn prices?," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 689-696.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:199:y:2022:i:c:p:689-696
    DOI: 10.1016/j.renene.2022.08.146
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960148122013258
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.renene.2022.08.146?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Bulut, Ümit, 2020. "Estimation of the co-movements between biofuel production and food prices: A wavelet-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    2. David Zilberman & Gal Hochman & Deepak Rajagopal & Steve Sexton & Govinda Timilsina, 2013. "The Impact of Biofuels on Commodity Food Prices: Assessment of Findings," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 95(2), pages 275-281.
    3. Fredj Jawadi & Souhir Chlibi & Abdoulkarim Idi Cheffou, 2019. "Computing stock price comovements with a three-regime panel smooth transition error correction model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 274(1), pages 331-345, March.
    4. Ricardo J. Caballero, 2010. "Macroeconomics after the Crisis: Time to Deal with the Pretense-of-Knowledge Syndrome," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(4), pages 85-102, Fall.
    5. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    6. Piesse, Jenifer & Thirtle, Colin, 2009. "Three bubbles and a panic: An explanatory review of recent food commodity price events," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 119-129, April.
    7. Bahel, Eric & Marrouch, Walid & Gaudet, Gérard, 2013. "The economics of oil, biofuel and food commodities," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 599-617.
    8. Li, Jun & Zhao, Renyong & Xu, Youjie & Wu, Xiaorong & Bean, Scott R. & Wang, Donghai, 2022. "Fuel ethanol production from starchy grain and other crops: An overview on feedstocks, affecting factors, and technical advances," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 223-239.
    9. Algieri, Bernardina, 2014. "The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 227-247.
    10. Grafton, R. Quentin & Kompas, Tom & Long, Ngo Van & To, Hang, 2014. "US biofuels subsidies and CO2 emissions: An empirical test for a weak and a strong green paradox," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 550-555.
    11. Ajanovic, Amela, 2011. "Biofuels versus food production: Does biofuels production increase food prices?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 2070-2076.
    12. Christopher L. Gilbert, 2010. "How to Understand High Food Prices," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 398-425, June.
    13. Ahmed, Maruf Yakubu & Sarkodie, Samuel Asumadu, 2021. "COVID-19 pandemic and economic policy uncertainty regimes affect commodity market volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    15. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1479-1505, October.
    16. Deborah Bentivoglio & Adele Finco & Mirian Rumenos Piedade Bacchi, 2016. "Interdependencies between Biofuel, Fuel and Food Prices: The Case of the Brazilian Ethanol Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(6), pages 1-16, June.
    17. Berger, Jurij & Dalheimer, Bernhard & Brümmer, Bernhard, 2021. "Effects of variable EU import levies on corn price volatility," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    18. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2006. "Testing For Cointegration In Nonlinear Smooth Transition Error Correction Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(2), pages 279-303, April.
    19. Danish I. Godil & Zhang Yu & Arshian Sharif & Rimsha Usman & Syed Abdul Rehman Khan, 2021. "Investigate the role of technology innovation and renewable energy in reducing transport sector CO2 emission in China: A path toward sustainable development," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 694-707, July.
    20. Parra, Juan Carlos & Wodon, Quentin, 2008. "Comparing the impact of food and energy price shocks on consumers : a social accounting matrix analysis for Ghana," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4741, The World Bank.
    21. Anthony Paris, 2018. "On the link between oil and agricultural commodity prices: Do biofuels matter?," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 155, pages 48-60.
    22. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Bulut, Ümit & Kuşkaya, Sevda, 2017. "Can biomass energy be an efficient policy tool for sustainable development?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 830-845.
    23. Duarte, Rosa & Pinilla, Vicente & Serrano, Ana, 2013. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for water use? A panel smooth transition regression approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 518-527.
    24. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Bulut, Ümit & Sualp, M. Nedim, 2016. "How did the US economy react to shale gas production revolution? An advanced time series approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 116(P1), pages 963-977.
    25. Fowowe, Babajide, 2016. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Evidence from South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 149-157.
    26. Baffes, John, 2007. "Oil spills on other commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 126-134, September.
    27. Chowdhury, Mohammad Ashraful Ferdous & Meo, Muhammad Saeed & Uddin, Ajim & Haque, Md. Mahmudul, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of energy price on commodity price: New evidence from NARDL and time frequency wavelet approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    28. Lopez Barrera, Emiliano & Hertel, Thomas, 2021. "Global food waste across the income spectrum: Implications for food prices, production and resource use," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    29. Serra, Teresa & Zilberman, David, 2013. "Biofuel-related price transmission literature: A review," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 141-151.
    30. Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2017. "Time-frequency contained co-movement of crude oil and world food prices: A wavelet-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 230-239.
    31. Hossain, A. K. M. Nurul & Serletis, Apostolos, 2020. "Biofuel substitution in the U.S. transportation sector," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    32. Chakona, Gamuchirai & Shackleton, Charlie M., 2019. "Food insecurity in South Africa: To what extent can social grants and consumption of wild foods eradicate hunger?," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 87-94.
    33. Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlík & Stefan Frank & Amanda Palazzo & Hugo Valin, 2019. "Publisher Correction: Tackling food consumption inequality to fight hunger without pressuring the environment," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(12), pages 1149-1150, December.
    34. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    35. Sathre, Roger & Gustavsson, Leif, 2021. "A lifecycle comparison of natural resource use and climate impact of biofuel and electric cars," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    36. Renzaho, Andre M.N. & Kamara, Joseph K. & Toole, Michael, 2017. "Biofuel production and its impact on food security in low and middle income countries: Implications for the post-2015 sustainable development goals," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 503-516.
    37. Justas Streimikis & Tomas Baležentis, 2020. "Agricultural sustainability assessment framework integrating sustainable development goals and interlinked priorities of environmental, climate and agriculture policies," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(6), pages 1702-1712, November.
    38. Li, Bingshuo & Yang, Tianhua & Li, Rundong & Kai, Xingping, 2020. "Co-generation of liquid biofuels from lignocellulose by integrated biochemical and hydrothermal liquefaction process," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    39. Samuel Kwaku Agyei & Zangina Isshaq & Siaw Frimpong & Anokye Mohammed Adam & Ahmed Bossman & Oliver Asiamah, 2021. "COVID‐19 and food prices in sub‐Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 102-113, April.
    40. Bradbear, Catherine & Friel, Sharon, 2013. "Integrating climate change, food prices and population health," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 56-66.
    41. Mohamed Behnassi & Mahjoub El Haiba, 2022. "Implications of the Russia–Ukraine war for global food security," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 754-755, June.
    42. Robert S. Pindyck, 2001. "The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-30.
    43. Manel Youssef & Khaled Mokni, 2021. "On the Nonlinear Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the World Food Prices Under Different Markets Conditions," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 73-95, January.
    44. Tomoko Hasegawa & Petr Havlík & Stefan Frank & Amanda Palazzo & Hugo Valin, 2019. "Tackling food consumption inequality to fight hunger without pressuring the environment," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 2(9), pages 826-833, September.
    45. Monteiro, Nathalia & Altman, Ira & Lahiri, Sajal, 2012. "The impact of ethanol production on food prices: The role of interplay between the U.S. and Brazil," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 193-199.
    46. Key, Nigel, 2019. "Farm size and productivity growth in the United States Corn Belt," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 186-195.
    47. Koçak, Emrah & Şarkgüneşi, Aykut, 2017. "The renewable energy and economic growth nexus in Black Sea and Balkan countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 51-57.
    48. Lima, Cristiane Rocha Albuquerque & de Melo, Gabriel Rivas & Stosic, Borko & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Cross-correlations between Brazilian biofuel and food market: Ethanol versus sugar," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 513(C), pages 687-693.
    49. Kristin Linnerud & Erling Holden & Morten Simonsen, 2021. "Closing the sustainable development gap: A global study of goal interactions," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 738-753, July.
    50. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    51. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    52. Dick, Ndukwe Agbai & Wilson, Paul, 2018. "Analysis of the inherent energy-food dilemma of the Nigerian biofuels policy using partial equilibrium model: The Nigerian Energy-Food Model (NEFM)," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 500-514.
    53. Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2022. "The nexus of renewable energy equity and agricultural commodities in the United States: Evidence of regime-switching and price bubbles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    54. Teresa Serra & David Zilberman & José M. Gil & Barry K. Goodwin, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. corn‐ethanol‐oil‐gasoline price system," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 42(1), pages 35-45, January.
    55. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2019. "Energy and Food Security: Linkages through Price Volatility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 796-806.
    56. Bilgili, Faik, 2012. "The impact of biomass consumption on CO2 emissions: Cointegration analyses with regime shifts," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(7), pages 5349-5354.
    57. Christopher L. Gilbert & Harriet Kasidi Mugera, 2020. "Competitive Storage, Biofuels and the Corn Price," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 71(2), pages 384-411, June.
    58. Iddrisu, Abdul-Aziz & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    59. Simla Tokgoz & Wei Zhang & Siwa Msangi & Prapti Bhandary, 2012. "Biofuels and the Future of Food: Competition and Complementarities," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-22, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Johnson, David R. & Geldner, Nathan B. & Liu, Jing & Baldos, Uris Lantz & Hertel, Thomas, 2023. "Reducing US biofuels requirements mitigates short-term impacts of global population and income growth on agricultural environmental outcomes," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    2. Kübra Akyol Özcan, 2023. "Food Price Bubbles: Food Price Indices of Turkey, the FAO, the OECD, and the IMF," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-21, June.
    3. Usman, Ojonugwa & Iorember, Paul Terhemba & Ozkan, Oktay & Alola, Andrew Adewale, 2024. "Dampening energy security-related uncertainties in the United States: The role of green energy-technology investment and operation of transnational corporations," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 289(C).
    4. Tanaka, Tetsuji & Guo, Jin & Wang, Xiufang, 2023. "Did biofuel production strengthen the comovements between food and fuel prices? Evidence from ethanol-related markets in the United States," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bilgili, Faik & Kocak, Emrah & Kuskaya, Sevda & Bulut, Umit, 2022. "Co-movements and causalities between ethanol production and corn prices in the USA: New evidence from wavelet transform analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    2. Bilgili, Faik & Koçak, Emrah & Kuşkaya, Sevda & Bulut, Ümit, 2020. "Estimation of the co-movements between biofuel production and food prices: A wavelet-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    3. Yoon, Seong-Min, 2022. "On the interdependence between biofuel, fossil fuel and agricultural food prices: Evidence from quantile tests," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 536-545.
    4. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek, 2019. "The relationship between fuel and food prices: Methods, outcomes, and lessons for commodity price risk management," CAMA Working Papers 2019-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Filip, Ondrej & Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2019. "Food versus fuel: An updated and expanded evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 152-166.
    6. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 outbreak on multi-scale asymmetric spillovers between food and oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    7. Cheng, Sheng & Cao, Yan, 2019. "On the relation between global food and crude oil prices: An empirical investigation in a nonlinear framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 422-432.
    8. Zhuo Chen & Bo Yan & Hanwen Kang, 2022. "Dynamic correlation between crude oil and agricultural futures markets," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1798-1849, August.
    9. Cao, Yan & Cheng, Sheng & Li, Xinran, 2024. "Co-movements between heterogeneous crude oil and food markets: Does temperature change really matter?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    10. Guo, Jin & Tanaka, Tetsuji, 2022. "Energy security versus food security: An analysis of fuel ethanol- related markets using the spillover index and partial wavelet coherence approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    11. Cheng, Natalie Fang Ling & Hasanov, Akram Shavkatovich & Poon, Wai Ching & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "The US-China trade war and the volatility linkages between energy and agricultural commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    12. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Tail dependence risk and spillovers between oil and food prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 195-209.
    13. Shokoohi, Zeinab & Saghaian, Sayed, 2022. "Nexus of energy and food nutrition prices in oil importing and exporting countries: A panel VAR model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    14. Wei Su, Chi & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Tao, Ran & Oana-Ramona, Lobonţ, 2019. "Do oil prices drive agricultural commodity prices? Further evidence in a global bio-energy context," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 691-701.
    15. Agus Widarjono & Indah Susantun & Sarastri M. Ruchba & Ari Rudatin, 2020. "Oil and Food Prices for a Net Oil Importing-country: How Are Related in Indonesia?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(5), pages 255-263.
    16. Umar Muhammad Gummi & Yang Rong & Utiya Bello & Abdulhamid Sillah Umar & Asiya Mu'azu, 2021. "On the Analysis of Food and Oil Markets in Nigeria: What Prices Tell Us from Asymmetric and Partial Structural Change Modeling?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 52-64.
    17. Mokni, Khaled & Ben-Salha, Ousama, 2020. "Asymmetric causality in quantiles analysis of the oil-food ‏ ‏nexus since the 1960s," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "Causality and predictability in distribution: The ethanol–food price relation revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 152-160.
    19. Sun, Yunpeng & Gao, Pengpeng & Raza, Syed Ali & Shah, Nida & Sharif, Arshian, 2023. "The asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the world food prices: Fresh evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    20. Umit BULUT, 2021. "The response of monetary policy to the COVID-19 pandemic in Turkey. The path of a credit-based economic recovery," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 231-238, Spring.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:renene:v:199:y:2022:i:c:p:689-696. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/renewable-energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.