IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v244y2024ics0951832024000346.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement

Author

Listed:
  • Ren, Xin
  • Nane, Gabriela F.
  • Terwel, Karel C.
  • van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M.

Abstract

This study focuses on measuring the influence of critical Human and Organizational Factors (HOFs) on human error occurrence in structural design and construction tasks within the context of the Dutch construction industry. The primary research question addressed in this paper concerns the extent of HOFs’ contribution to human error occurrence. To answer this question, the Classical Model for Structured Expert Judgement (SEJ) is employed, enabling experts to provide their judgments on task Human Error Probability (HEP) influenced by different HOFs, which are subsequently aggregated mathematically. SEJ is chosen as a suitable approach due to the limited availability of applicable data in the construction sector. As a result, the impacts of HOFs are quantified as multipliers, representing the ratio between the observed or evaluated task HEP and its baseline value. These multipliers are then compared with corresponding multipliers from existing Human Reliability Analysis methods and studies. The findings reveal that fitness-for-duty, organizational characteristics and fragmentation exhibit the most pronounced negative effects, whereas complexity, attitude and fitness-for-duty demonstrate the most significant positive impacts on task performance. These results offer valuable insights that can be applied to enhance structural safety assurance practices.

Suggested Citation

  • Ren, Xin & Nane, Gabriela F. & Terwel, Karel C. & van Gelder, Pieter H.A.J.M., 2024. "Measuring the impacts of human and organizational factors on human errors in the Dutch construction industry using structured expert judgement," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024000346
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2024.109959
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832024000346
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2024.109959?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Preischl, Wolfgang & Hellmich, Mario, 2013. "Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 150-159.
    2. James Chang, Y. & Bley, Dennis & Criscione, Lawrence & Kirwan, Barry & Mosleh, Ali & Madary, Todd & Nowell, Rodney & Richards, Robert & Roth, Emilie M. & Sieben, Scott & Zoulis, Antonios, 2014. "The SACADA database for human reliability and human performance," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 117-133.
    3. Preischl, Wolfgang & Hellmich, Mario, 2016. "Human error probabilities from operational experience of German nuclear power plants, Part II," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 44-56.
    4. Podofillini, Luca & Reer, Bernhard & Dang, Vinh N., 2023. "A traceable process to develop Bayesian networks from scarce data and expert judgment: A human reliability analysis application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    5. Park, Jinkyun, 2024. "A framework to determine the holistic multiplier of performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis – An explanatory study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    6. John Quigley & Abigail Colson & Willy Aspinall & Roger M. Cooke, 2018. "Elicitation in the Classical Model," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Luis C. Dias & Alec Morton & John Quigley (ed.), Elicitation, chapter 0, pages 15-36, Springer.
    7. Andrew Atkinson, 1998. "Human error in the management of building projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 339-349.
    8. Rongen, G. & Morales-Nápoles, O. & Kok, M., 2022. "Expert judgment-based reliability analysis of the Dutch flood defense system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    9. Fergus Bolger & Gene Rowe, 2015. "The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 5-11, January.
    10. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Presley, Mary, 2021. "Selecting significant contextual factors and estimating their effects on operator reliability in computer-based control rooms," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    11. Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Yochan & Jung, Wondea, 2018. "Calculating nominal human error probabilities from the operation experience of domestic nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 215-225.
    12. Liu, Jianqiao & Zou, Yanhua & Wang, Wei & Zio, Enrico & Yuan, Chengwei & Wang, Taorui & Jiang, Jianjun, 2022. "A Bayesian belief network framework for nuclear power plant human reliability analysis accounting for dependencies among performance shaping factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    13. Cooke, Roger M. & Marti, Deniz & Mazzuchi, Thomas, 2021. "Expert forecasting with and without uncertainty quantification and weighting: What do the data say?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 378-387.
    14. Cooke, Roger M. & Goossens, Louis L.H.J., 2008. "TU Delft expert judgment data base," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(5), pages 657-674.
    15. Garthwaite, Paul H. & Kadane, Joseph B. & O'Hagan, Anthony, 2005. "Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 680-701, June.
    16. Fan, Shiqi & Yang, Zaili, 2023. "Towards objective human performance measurement for maritime safety: A new psychophysiological data-driven machine learning method," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    17. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2018. "Estimating the quantitative relation between PSFs and HEPs from full-scope simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 12-22.
    18. Paglioni, Vincent P. & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "Dependency definitions for quantitative human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    19. Michael Oppenheimer & Christopher M. Little & Roger M. Cooke, 2016. "Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(5), pages 445-451, May.
    20. Roger M. Cooke, 2015. "The Aggregation of Expert Judgment: Do Good Things Come to Those Who Weight?," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(1), pages 12-15, January.
    21. Willy Aspinall, 2010. "A route to more tractable expert advice," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7279), pages 294-295, January.
    22. Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Camliyurt, Gokhan & Aydin, Muhmmet & Akyuz, Emre & Gardoni, Paolo, 2023. "A bow-tie extended D-S evidence-HEART modelling for risk analysis of cargo tank cracks on oil/chemical tanker," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    23. Colson, Abigail R. & Cooke, Roger M., 2017. "Cross validation for the classical model of structured expert judgment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 109-120.
    24. Martine J Barons & Willy Aspinall, 2020. "Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement update," Papers 2010.15484, arXiv.org.
    25. Anca M. Hanea & Marissa F. McBride & Mark A. Burgman & Bonnie C. Wintle, 2018. "The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1781-1794, September.
    26. Deniz Marti & Thomas A. Mazzuchi & Roger M. Cooke, 2021. "Are Performance Weights Beneficial? Investigating the Random Expert Hypothesis," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane & Tim Bedford & Simon French (ed.), Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 53-82, Springer.
    27. Laumann, Karin & Rasmussen, Martin, 2016. "Suggested improvements to the definitions of Standardized Plant Analysis of Risk-Human Reliability Analysis (SPAR-H) performance shaping factors, their levels and multipliers and the nominal tasks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 287-300.
    28. He, Xuhong & Wang, Yao & Shen, Zupei & Huang, Xiangrui, 2008. "A simplified CREAM prospective quantification process and its application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 298-306.
    29. Alexandre K. Magnan & Robert Bell & Virginie K. E. Duvat & James D. Ford & Matthias Garschagen & Marjolijn Haasnoot & Carmen Lacambra & Inigo J. Losada & Katharine J. Mach & Mélinda Noblet & Devanatha, 2023. "Status of global coastal adaptation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(11), pages 1213-1221, November.
    30. Martine J Barons & Willy Aspinall, 2019. "Anticipated impacts of Brexit scenarios on UK food prices and implications for policies on poverty and health: a structured expert judgement approach," Papers 1904.03053, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    31. Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane, 2021. "An In-Depth Perspective on the Classical Model," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Anca M. Hanea & Gabriela F. Nane & Tim Bedford & Simon French (ed.), Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis, chapter 0, pages 225-256, Springer.
    32. Liu, Peng & Qiu, Yongping & Hu, Juntao & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2020. "Expert judgments for performance shaping Factors’ multiplier design in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    33. Sezer, Sukru Ilke & Akyuz, Emre & Gardoni, Paolo, 2023. "Prediction of human error probability under Evidential Reasoning extended SLIM approach: The case of tank cleaning in chemical tanker," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 238(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Park, Jinkyun, 2024. "A framework to determine the holistic multiplier of performance shaping factors in human reliability analysis – An explanatory study," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).
    2. Gayan Dharmarathne & Gabriela F. Nane & Andrew Robinson & Anca M. Hanea, 2023. "Shrinking the Variance in Experts’ “Classical” Weights Used in Expert Judgment Aggregation," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Park, Jooyoung & Boring, Ronald L. & Ulrich, Thomas A. & Lew, Roger & Lee, Sungheon & Park, Bumjun & Kim, Jonghyun, 2022. "A framework to collect human reliability analysis data for nuclear power plants using a simplified simulator and student operators," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Patriarca, Riccardo & Ramos, Marilia & Paltrinieri, Nicola & Massaiu, Salvatore & Costantino, Francesco & Di Gravio, Giulio & Boring, Ronald Laurids, 2020. "Human reliability analysis: Exploring the intellectual structure of a research field," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    5. Anca M. Hanea & Marissa F. McBride & Mark A. Burgman & Bonnie C. Wintle, 2018. "The Value of Performance Weights and Discussion in Aggregated Expert Judgments," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(9), pages 1781-1794, September.
    6. Fathy, Mohammad & Kazemzadeh Haghighi, Foojan & Ahmadi, Mohammad, 2024. "Uncertainty quantification of reservoir performance using machine learning algorithms and structured expert judgment," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    7. Jeremy Rohmer & Eric Chojnacki, 2021. "Forecast of environment systems using expert judgements: performance comparison between the possibilistic and the classical model," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 131-146, March.
    8. Hathout, Michel & Vuillet, Marc & Carvajal, Claudio & Peyras, Laurent & Diab, Youssef, 2019. "Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 377-392.
    9. Liu, Peng & Qiu, Yongping & Hu, Juntao & Tong, Jiejuan & Zhao, Jun & Li, Zhizhong, 2020. "Expert judgments for performance shaping Factors’ multiplier design in human reliability analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    10. Jung, Wondea & Park, Jinkyun & Kim, Yochan & Choi, Sun Yeong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2020. "HuREX – A framework of HRA data collection from simulators in nuclear power plants," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 194(C).
    11. Catelani, Marcantonio & Ciani, Lorenzo & Guidi, Giulia & Patrizi, Gabriele, 2021. "An enhanced SHERPA (E-SHERPA) method for human reliability analysis in railway engineering," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    12. Morais, Caroline & Estrada-Lugo, Hector Diego & Tolo, Silvia & Jacques, Tiago & Moura, Raphael & Beer, Michael & Patelli, Edoardo, 2022. "Robust data-driven human reliability analysis using credal networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    13. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun & Jung, Wondea, 2017. "A classification scheme of erroneous behaviors for human error probability estimations based on simulator data," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 1-13.
    14. Ayoub, Ali & Stankovski, Andrej & Kröger, Wolfgang & Sornette, Didier, 2021. "The ETH Zurich curated nuclear events database: Layout, event classification, and analysis of contributing factors," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    15. Peter Harrison Howard & Derek Sylvan, 2020. "Wisdom of the experts: Using survey responses to address positive and normative uncertainties in climate-economic models," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(2), pages 213-232, September.
    16. Alexander M. R. Bakker & Domitille Louchard & Klaus Keller, 2017. "Sources and implications of deep uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 140(3), pages 339-347, February.
    17. Kim, Yochan & Park, Jinkyun, 2019. "Incorporating prior knowledge with simulation data to estimate PSF multipliers using Bayesian logistic regression," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 210-217.
    18. Abigail R Colson & Itamar Megiddo & Gerardo Alvarez-Uria & Sumanth Gandra & Tim Bedford & Alec Morton & Roger M Cooke & Ramanan Laxminarayan, 2019. "Quantifying uncertainty about future antimicrobial resistance: Comparing structured expert judgment and statistical forecasting methods," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-18, July.
    19. Mohammad Yazdi, 2019. "A review paper to examine the validity of Bayesian network to build rational consensus in subjective probabilistic failure analysis," International Journal of System Assurance Engineering and Management, Springer;The Society for Reliability, Engineering Quality and Operations Management (SREQOM),India, and Division of Operation and Maintenance, Lulea University of Technology, Sweden, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, February.
    20. Mkrtchyan, L. & Podofillini, L. & Dang, V.N., 2016. "Methods for building Conditional Probability Tables of Bayesian Belief Networks from limited judgment: An evaluation for Human Reliability Application," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 93-112.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0951832024000346. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.