IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/reensy/v243y2024ics0951832023007330.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Weaponized disinformation spread and its impact on multi-commodity critical infrastructure networks

Author

Listed:
  • Jamalzadeh, Saeed
  • Mettenbrink, Lily
  • Barker, Kash
  • González, Andrés D.
  • Radhakrishnan, Sridhar
  • Johansson, Jonas
  • Bessarabova, Elena

Abstract

The well-publicized disinformation campaigns surrounding recent elections, pandemic vaccination adoption, as well as supply-chain disruptions and shortages have made historical problems of disinformation more apparent. When disinformation targets transportation infrastructure, supply chains can be disrupted, resulting in commodities shortages such as food and fuel, consequently jeopardizing the health and safety of communities. This research proposes an integrated epidemiological-optimization model that quantifies the impacts of weaponized disinformation on infrastructure networks that transport multiple commodities. The model aims to minimize the overall weighted shortage of commodities caused by different disinformation spread rates. Results show that disinformation weaponized against transportation infrastructure, potentially targeting a particular geographical region or a particular commodity, can have wide-ranging impacts across different commodities. The proposed model is applied to the multi-commodity Swedish railway network carrying 14 different categories of commodities over 1360 supply and demand nodes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jamalzadeh, Saeed & Mettenbrink, Lily & Barker, Kash & González, Andrés D. & Radhakrishnan, Sridhar & Johansson, Jonas & Bessarabova, Elena, 2024. "Weaponized disinformation spread and its impact on multi-commodity critical infrastructure networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 243(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:243:y:2024:i:c:s0951832023007330
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2023.109819
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832023007330
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109819?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2014. "How do oil price shocks affect consumer prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 313-323.
    2. Robert Wiedmer & Judith M. Whipple & Stanley E. Griffis & Clay M. Voorhees, 2020. "Resource Scarcity Perceptions in Supply Chains: The Effect of Buyer Altruism on the Propensity for Collaboration," Journal of Supply Chain Management, Institute for Supply Management, vol. 56(4), pages 45-64, October.
    3. Chen, Ning & Zhu, Xuzhen & Chen, Yanyan, 2019. "Information spreading on complex networks with general group distribution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 671-676.
    4. Lin, Chen & Xiao, Hui & Kou, Gang & Peng, Rui, 2020. "Defending a series system with individual protection, overarching protection, and disinformation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    5. Jiang, Meiling & Gao, Qingwu & Zhuang, Jun, 2021. "Reciprocal spreading and debunking processes of online misinformation: A new rumor spreading–debunking model with a case study," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 565(C).
    6. Bairong Wang & Jun Zhuang, 2018. "Rumor response, debunking response, and decision makings of misinformed Twitter users during disasters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(3), pages 1145-1162, September.
    7. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    8. Liu, Enze & Barker, Kash & Chen, Hong, 2022. "A multi-modal evacuation-based response strategy for mitigating disruption in an intercity railway system," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    9. Bettencourt, Luís M.A. & Cintrón-Arias, Ariel & Kaiser, David I. & Castillo-Chávez, Carlos, 2006. "The power of a good idea: Quantitative modeling of the spread of ideas from epidemiological models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 364(C), pages 513-536.
    10. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    11. Peng, R. & Zhai, Q.Q. & Levitin, G., 2016. "Defending a single object against an attacker trying to detect a subset of false targets," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 137-147.
    12. Stuermer, Martin, 2017. "Industrialization and the demand for mineral commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 16-27.
    13. Gao, Liping & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Saba, Richard, 2013. "How Does the Oil Price Shock Affect Consumers?," MPRA Paper 49565, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Mohamad Darayi & Kash Barker & Joost R. Santos, 2017. "Component Importance Measures for Multi-Industry Vulnerability of a Freight Transportation Network," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1111-1136, December.
    15. Liu, Qiming & Li, Tao & Sun, Meici, 2017. "The analysis of an SEIR rumor propagation model on heterogeneous network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 372-380.
    16. Maximilian Auffhammer & Edward Rubin, 2018. "Natural Gas Price Elasticities and Optimal Cost Recovery Under Consumer Heterogeneity: Evidence from 300 million natural gas bills," NBER Working Papers 24295, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Liang, Zhenglin & Jiang, Chen & Sun, Muxia & Xue, Zongqi & Li, Yan-Fu, 2023. "Resilience analysis for confronting the spreading risk of contagious diseases," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    18. Carmi, Elinor & Yates, Simeon J. & Lockley, Eleanor & Pawluczuk, Alicja, 2020. "Data citizenship: Rethinking data literacy in the age of disinformation, misinformation, and malinformation," Internet Policy Review: Journal on Internet Regulation, Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG), Berlin, vol. 9(2), pages 1-22.
    19. Rithika Dulam & Kazuo Furuta & Taro Kanno, 2021. "Consumer Panic Buying: Realizing Its Consequences and Repercussions on the Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-24, April.
    20. Gururaghav Raman & Bedoor AlShebli & Marcin Waniek & Talal Rahwan & Jimmy Chih-Hsien Peng, 2020. "How weaponizing disinformation can bring down a city’s power grid," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(8), pages 1-14, August.
    21. Pythagoras N. Petratos & Alessio Faccia, 2023. "Fake news, misinformation, disinformation and supply chain risks and disruptions: risk management and resilience using blockchain," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 327(2), pages 735-762, August.
    22. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    23. Taichi Murayama & Shoko Wakamiya & Eiji Aramaki & Ryota Kobayashi, 2021. "Modeling the spread of fake news on Twitter," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-16, April.
    24. Ilalokhoin, Ohis & Pant, Raghav & Hall, Jim W., 2023. "A model and methodology for resilience assessment of interdependent rail networks – Case study of Great Britain's rail network," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).
    25. Meng, Xueyu & Han, Sijie & Wu, Leilei & Si, Shubin & Cai, Zhiqiang, 2022. "Analysis of epidemic vaccination strategies by node importance and evolutionary game on complex networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 219(C).
    26. Jesse Edgerton, 2012. "Agency Problems in Public Firms: Evidence from Corporate Jets in Leveraged Buyouts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2187-2213, December.
    27. Seale, James L., Jr. & Regmi, Anita & Bernstein, Jason, 2003. "International Evidence On Food Consumption Patterns," Technical Bulletins 33580, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    28. Ben R. Craig & Tom Phelan & Jan-Peter Siedlarek & Jared Steinberg, 2020. "Improving Epidemic Modeling with Networks," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2020(23), pages 1-8, September.
    29. Sourav Chowdhury & Suparna Roychowdhury & Indranath Chaudhuri, 2021. "Universality and herd immunity threshold: Revisiting the SIR model for COVID-19," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 32(10), pages 1-33, October.
    30. Peng, Rui & Xiao, Hui & Guo, Jianjun & Lin, Chen, 2020. "Defending a parallel system against a strategic attacker with redundancy, protection and disinformation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    31. Darayi, Mohamad & Barker, Kash & Nicholson, Charles D., 2019. "A multi-industry economic impact perspective on adaptive capacity planning in a freight transportation network," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C), pages 356-368.
    32. McCarter, Matthew & Barker, Kash & Johansson, Jonas & Ramirez-Marquez, Jose E., 2018. "A bi-objective formulation for robust defense strategies in multi-commodity networks," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 154-161.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    2. Christina Anderl & Guglielmo Maria Caporale, 2024. "Functional Oil Price Expectations Shocks and Inflation," CESifo Working Paper Series 10998, CESifo.
    3. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2021. "Oil price pass-through into consumer prices: Evidence from U.S. weekly data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    4. Zhang, Wen, 2022. "China’s government spending and global inflation dynamics: The role of the oil price channel," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Abdoul G. Sam & Babatunde O. Abidoye & Sihle Mashaba, 2021. "Climate change and household welfare in sub-Saharan Africa: empirical evidence from Swaziland," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(2), pages 439-455, April.
    6. Patrick Blagrave & Peter Elliott & Mr. Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Mr. Douglas Hostland & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Fan Zhang, 2013. "Adding China to the Global Projection Model," IMF Working Papers 2013/256, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jonathan M. Nzuma & Rakhal Sarker, 2010. "An error corrected almost ideal demand system for major cereals in Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 43-50, January.
    8. Schmidhuber, J., 2006. "The nutrition transition to 2030: Why developing countries are likely to bear the major burden," Proceedings “Schriften der Gesellschaft für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften des Landbaues e.V.”, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA), vol. 41, March.
    9. Steffen Huck & Gabriele K. Ruchala & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2007. "Pricing and Trust," Discussion Papers 07-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    10. Valin, Hugo & Havlik, Petr & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael, 2012. "Impacts of Alternative Climate Change Mitigation Policies on Food Consumption under various Diet Scenarios," Conference papers 332253, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Amanda M. Countryman & Amy D. Hagerman, 2017. "Retrospective Economic Analysis of Foot and Mouth Disease Eradication in the Latin American Beef Sector," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 257-273, April.
    12. Razmi, Fatemeh & Azali, M. & Chin, Lee & Shah Habibullah, Muzafar, 2016. "The role of monetary transmission channels in transmitting oil price shocks to prices in ASEAN-4 countries during pre- and post-global financial crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 581-591.
    13. repec:ken:wpaper:0601 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Pierre Dubois & Rachel Griffith & Aviv Nevo, 2014. "Do Prices and Attributes Explain International Differences in Food Purchases?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 832-867, March.
    15. Rahul Anand & Eswar S. Prasad, 2010. "Optimal Price Indices for Targeting Inflation Under Incomplete Markets," NBER Working Papers 16290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Muhammad, Andrew & Meade, Birgit Gisela Saager & Regmi, Anita & Seale, James L., 2011. "International Evidence on Food Consumption Patterns: An Update Using 2005 International Comparison Program Data," Technical Bulletins 120252, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    17. Hong, Chang & Liefert, William M. & Wang, Sun Ling, 2017. "Exchange Rates, Income Growth, and Chinese Agricultural Imports," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258447, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    18. Bakucs Zoltán & Fertő Imre & Marreiros Cristina Galamba, 2014. "Socio-Economic Status and the Structural Change of Dietary Intake in Hungary," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 2(1), pages 5-19, October.
    19. Christophe Gouel, 2014. "Food Price Volatility and Domestic Stabilization Policies in Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: The Economics of Food Price Volatility, pages 261-306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Arega D. Alene & V. M. Manyong & Eric F. Tollens & Steffen Abele, 2009. "Efficiency–equity tradeoffs and the scope for resource reallocation in agricultural research: evidence from Nigeria," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 40(1), pages 1-14, January.
    21. Drabik, Dusan & Ciaian, Pavel & Pokrivcak, Jan, 2014. "Biofuels and vertical price transmission: the case of the U.S. corn, ethanol and food markets," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182697, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:reensy:v:243:y:2024:i:c:s0951832023007330. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.