IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/quaeco/v87y2023icp224-234.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An empirical nexus between exchange rate and China's outward foreign direct investment: Implications for Pakistan under the China Pakistan economic corridor project

Author

Listed:
  • Degong, Prof. Ma
  • Ullah, Farid
  • Ullah, Raza
  • Arif, Muhammad

Abstract

This study spotlights the determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment in Pakistan under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor using time series data. The stationarity was checked through augmented dicky fuller tests, and an auto-regressive distributive lag bounds test confirm long-run association among exchange rate, inflation, corruption, law & order situation, and Chinese outward foreign direct investment. The study conducted auto-regressive distributive lag (ARDL) for the short-run and long-run equilibrium covering annual time series data from 1990 to 2017. The empirical results indicate that exchange rates, inflation, and corruption have a negative and statistically significant effect on China's outward foreign direct investment in the host country. In contrast, law and order situations have an insignificant association with outward foreign direct investment. The findings further demonstrate that the error correction term is negative and highly significant at a 1 % level of significance. This is another indication of a stable long-run association among the variables. The estimated error correction term coefficient is −0.102, recommends that the short-run disequilibrium can be corrected at the speed of 10 %. Moreover, in the short run, corruption, inflation, and law and order are significantly affecting outward foreign direct investment. At the same time, export has no significant impact on outward foreign direct investment in the short run.

Suggested Citation

  • Degong, Prof. Ma & Ullah, Farid & Ullah, Raza & Arif, Muhammad, 2023. "An empirical nexus between exchange rate and China's outward foreign direct investment: Implications for Pakistan under the China Pakistan economic corridor project," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 224-234.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:87:y:2023:i:c:p:224-234
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2020.12.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S106297692030171X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.qref.2020.12.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Liu, Hong & Li, Kequan, 2002. "Strategic Implications of Emerging Chinese Multinationals:: The Haier Case Study," European Management Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(6), pages 699-706, December.
    2. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Khan, Saleheen & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal, 2013. "The dynamic links between energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and trade in China: Fresh evidence from multivariate framework analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 8-21.
    3. Yi Huang & Prakash Loungani & Gewei Wang, 2014. "Minimum wages and firm employment: evidence from China," Globalization Institute Working Papers 173, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    4. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & da Cunha Lima, Luiza Leitão, 2018. "Effects of fiscal transparency on inflation and inflation expectations: Empirical evidence from developed and developing countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 26-37.
    5. Chuck C Y Kwok & Solomon Tadesse, 2006. "The MNC as an agent of change for host-country institutions: FDI and corruption," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 37(6), pages 767-785, November.
    6. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    7. Khan, A.H. & Kim, Y.-H., 1999. "Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan: Policy Issues and Operational Implications," Papers 66, Asian Development Bank.
    8. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 3, pages 89-120, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Ashok Babubudjnauth & Boopendra Seetanah, 2019. "An empirical investigation of the relationship between the real exchange rate and net FDI inflows in Mauritius," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(1), pages 63-74, November.
    10. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    12. Nigel Pain & Desirée Van Welsum, 2003. "Untying The Gordian Knot: The Multiple Links Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 823-846, December.
    13. Busse, Matthias & Hefeker, Carsten, 2007. "Political risk, institutions and foreign direct investment," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 397-415, June.
    14. Ullah, Subhan & Wang, Zheng & Stokes, Peter & Xiao, Wen, 2019. "Risk perceptions and risk management approaches of Chinese overseas investors: An empirical investigation," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 470-486.
    15. Rashid Menhas & Shahid Mahmood & Papel Tanchangya & Muhammad Nabeel Safdar & Safdar Hussain, 2019. "Sustainable Development under Belt and Road Initiative: A Case Study of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’s Socio-Economic Impact on Pakistan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(21), pages 1-24, November.
    16. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hye, Qazi Muhammad Adnan & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Leitão, Nuno Carlos, 2013. "Economic growth, energy consumption, financial development, international trade and CO2 emissions in Indonesia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 109-121.
    17. Mayneris, Florian & Poncet, Sandra & Zhang, Tao, 2018. "Improving or disappearing: Firm-level adjustments to minimum wages in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 20-42.
    18. Byung-Joo Lee, 2007. "Economic Fundamentals and Exchange Rates Under Different Exchange Rate Regimes: Korean Experience," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(1), pages 137-159, May.
    19. Peter J Buckley & L Jeremy Clegg & Adam R Cross & Xin Liu & Hinrich Voss & Ping Zheng, 2007. "The determinants of Chinese outward foreign direct investment," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 38(4), pages 499-518, July.
    20. Ivar Kolstad & Arne Wiig, 2013. "Digging in the dirt? Extractive industry FDI and corruption," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 369-383, November.
    21. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    22. Harald Hau & Yi Huang & Gewei Wang, 2020. "Firm Response to Competitive Shocks: Evidence from China’s Minimum Wage Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(6), pages 2639-2671.
    23. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
    24. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    25. Qin, Jie, 2000. "Exchange Rate Risk and Two-Way Foreign Direct Investment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(3), pages 221-231, July.
    26. Manop Udomkerdmongkol & Oliver Morrissey & Holger Görg, 2009. "Exchange Rates and Outward Foreign Direct Investment: US FDI in Emerging Economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 754-764, November.
    27. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2012. "Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2325-2339.
    28. Ma Degong & Farid Ullah & Muhammad Sualeh Khattak & Muhammad Anwar, 2018. "Do International Capabilities and Resources Configure Firm’s Sustainable Competitive Performance? Research within Pakistani SMEs," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-16, November.
    29. Jing Wang & Morley Gunderson, 2011. "Minimum Wage Impacts In China: Estimates From A Prespecified Research Design, 2000–2007," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 392-406, July.
    30. Byung-Joo Lee, 2007. "Economic fundamentals and exchange rates under different exchange rate regimes: Korean experience," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 10, pages 137-159, May.
    31. Anjum Aqeel & Mohammed Nishat, 2004. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 651-664.
    32. Jamuna Agarwal, 1980. "Determinants of foreign direct investment: A survey," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(4), pages 739-773, December.
    33. Benoît Mercereau, 2005. "FDI Flows to Asia: Did the Dragon Crowd Out the Tigers?," IMF Working Papers 2005/189, International Monetary Fund.
    34. Lacheheb, Miloud & Sirag, Abdalla, 2019. "Oil price and inflation in Algeria: A nonlinear ARDL approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 217-222.
    35. Long, Cheryl & Yang, Jin, 2016. "How do firms respond to minimum wage regulation in China? Evidence from Chinese private firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 267-284.
    36. Baek, H. Young & Kwok, Chuck C. Y., 2002. "Foreign exchange rates and the corporate choice of foreign entry mode," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 207-227, May.
    37. Avik Chakrabarti, 2001. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross‐Country Regressions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 89-114, February.
    38. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2013. "Linkages between inflation, economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 496-506.
    39. Degong Ma & Chun Lei & Farid Ullah & Raza Ullah & Qadar Bakhsh Baloch, 2019. "China’s One Belt and One Road Initiative and Outward Chinese Foreign Direct Investment in Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-13, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tolentino, Paz Estrella, 2010. "Home country macroeconomic factors and outward FDI of China and India," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 102-120, June.
    2. Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Babu, M. Suresh & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Does financial development intensify energy consumption in Saudi Arabia?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1022-1034.
    3. Eléazar Zerbo, 2017. "Energy consumption and economic growth in Sub-Saharan African countries: Further evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1720-1744.
    4. Tolentino, Paz Estrella, 2008. "The determinants of the outward foreign direct investment of China and India: Whither the home country?," MERIT Working Papers 2008-049, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    5. Roubaud, David & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2018. "Financial Development, Economic Growth, and Electricity Demand: A Sector Analysis of an Emerging Economy," MPRA Paper 87212, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 06 Jun 2018.
    6. Karaaslan, Abdulkerim & Çamkaya, Serhat, 2022. "The relationship between CO2 emissions, economic growth, health expenditure, and renewable and non-renewable energy consumption: Empirical evidence from Turkey," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 457-466.
    7. SBIA, Rashid & Al Rousan, Sahel, 2015. "Does Financial Development Induce Economic Growth in UAE? The Role of Foreign Direct Investment and Capitalization," MPRA Paper 64599, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    9. Bhattacharya, Mita & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Bhattacharya, Sankar, 2015. "The role of technology on the dynamics of coal consumption–economic growth: New evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 686-695.
    10. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "The role of natural gas consumption and trade in Tunisia's output," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-684.
    11. Fan, Haichao & Lin, Faqin & Tang, Lixin, 2018. "Minimum Wage and Outward FDI from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 1-19.
    12. Kahouli, Bassem, 2017. "The short and long run causality relationship among economic growth, energy consumption and financial development: Evidence from South Mediterranean Countries (SMCs)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 19-30.
    13. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mallick, Hrushikesh & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The role of globalization on the recent evolution of energy demand in India: Implications for sustainable development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 52-68.
    14. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    15. Sohail Abbas & Shazia Kousar & Amber Pervaiz, 2021. "Effects of energy consumption and ecological footprint on CO2 emissions: an empirical evidence from Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(9), pages 13364-13381, September.
    16. Muhammad Shahbaz & Hrushikesh Mallick & Mantu Kumar Mahalik & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2018. "Is globalization detrimental to financial development? Further evidence from a very large emerging economy with significant orientation towards policies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 574-595, February.
    17. Abdul Rehman & Hengyun Ma & Magdalena Radulescu & Crenguta Ileana Sinisi & Loredana Maria Paunescu & MD Shabbir Alam & Rafael Alvarado, 2021. "The Energy Mix Dilemma and Environmental Sustainability: Interaction among Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Nuclear Energy, Urban Agglomeration, and Economic Growth," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-21, November.
    18. Muhammad Shahbaz & Amatul Razzaq Chaudhary & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2020. "Is energy consumption sensitive to foreign capital inflows and currency devaluation in Pakistan?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(52), pages 5641-5658, June.
    19. Muhammad Shahbaz & Faridul Islam & Muhammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2016. "Finance–Growth–Energy Nexus and the Role of Agriculture and Modern Sectors: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Test Approach to Cointegration in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(5), pages 1037-1059, October.
    20. Mohammad Mafizur Rahman & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2013. "Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 14(1), pages 59-81, March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:87:y:2023:i:c:p:224-234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620167 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.