IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v390y2011i13p2531-2548.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Interest rates factor model

Author

Listed:
  • Lee, Sangwook
  • Kim, Min Jae
  • Kim, Soo Yong

Abstract

Interdependence of the interest rates of the US, the UK, and Japan is analyzed in this work by means of spectral analysis and network methods. A predominant effective factor in the interest rate market is which country floats a bond issue, and a minor effective factor is time to maturity of bonds. Power-law cross-correlation among different countries is analyzed by the detrended cross-correlation analysis method. Long-range cross-correlation is found between the first factors of interest rate, while there is no cross-correlation between some of the second factors. The tail dependency is indicated by tail indices from Archimedean copulas, including an empirical copula. In contrast to other pairs, the US–UK first factor pair has tail dependencies in both the upper-tail and lower-tail. Dynamic properties of interest rate are modeled by a stochastic volatility model. The properties of mean reverting and volatility clustering are observed and reflected in this model. The proposed simulation method combines the dependence structures and the factor dynamics model; it simultaneously describes the interest rates of different countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Sangwook & Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Soo Yong, 2011. "Interest rates factor model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(13), pages 2531-2548.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:13:p:2531-2548
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2011.03.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437111001944
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2011.03.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dong-Hee Kim & Hawoong Jeong, 2005. "Systematic analysis of group identification in stock markets," Papers physics/0503076, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2005.
    2. Tóth, Bence & Kertész, János, 2006. "Increasing market efficiency: Evolution of cross-correlations of stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 360(2), pages 505-515.
    3. Fernandez, Viviana, 2008. "Copula-based measures of dependence structure in assets returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(14), pages 3615-3628.
    4. Kanas, Angelos, 2008. "On real interest rate dynamics and regime switching," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2089-2098, October.
    5. Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F., 1996. "Long-term dependence in stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 253-259, December.
    6. Alexander M. Petersen & Fengzhong Wang & Shlomo Havlin & H. Eugene Stanley, 2009. "Quantitative law describing market dynamics before and after interest-rate change," Papers 0903.0010, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2010.
    7. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Vasiliki Plerou & Luis A. Nunes Amaral & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of fluctuations of financial market indices," Papers cond-mat/9905305, arXiv.org.
    8. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1993. "Long-memory inflation uncertainty: evidence from the term structure of interest rates," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 681-708.
    9. Youngki Lee & Luis A. N. Amaral & David Canning & Martin Meyer & H. Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Universal features in the growth dynamics of complex organizations," Papers cond-mat/9804100, arXiv.org.
    10. Cornelia Savu & Mark Trede, 2008. "Goodness-of-fit tests for parametric families of Archimedean copulas," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(2), pages 109-116.
    11. Kwapień, J & Drożdż, S & Speth, J, 2004. "Time scales involved in emergent market coherence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(1), pages 231-242.
    12. Tóth, Bence & Kertész, János, 2007. "On the origin of the Epps effect," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(1), pages 54-58.
    13. Yong-Ki Ma & Jeong-Hoon Kim, 2010. "Pricing the credit default swap rate for jump diffusion default intensity processes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 809-817.
    14. D. Sornette, 1998. "``String'' formulation of the Dynamics of the Forward Interest Rate Curve," Papers cond-mat/9802136, arXiv.org.
    15. D. Sornette, 1998. "“String” formulation of the dynamics of the forward interest rate curve," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 3(1), pages 125-137, May.
    16. Tabak, Benjamin M. & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2005. "The long-range dependence behavior of the term structure of interest rates in Japan," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 350(2), pages 418-426.
    17. Peter Cotton & Jean‐Pierre Fouque & George Papanicolaou & Ronnie Sircar, 2004. "Stochastic Volatility Corrections for Interest Rate Derivatives," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 173-200, April.
    18. P. Gopikrishnan & M. Meyer & L.A.N. Amaral & H.E. Stanley, 1998. "Inverse cubic law for the distribution of stock price variations," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 3(2), pages 139-140, July.
    19. Bence Toth & Janos Kertesz, 2007. "On the origin of the Epps effect," Papers physics/0701110, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2007.
    20. Cornelia Savu & Mark Trede, 2010. "Hierarchies of Archimedean copulas," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(3), pages 295-304.
    21. V. Plerou & P. Gopikrishnan & L. A. N. Amaral & M. Meyer & H. E. Stanley, 1999. "Scaling of the distribution of price fluctuations of individual companies," Papers cond-mat/9907161, arXiv.org.
    22. G. Bonanno & G. Caldarelli & F. Lillo & S. Micciché & N. Vandewalle & R. Mantegna, 2004. "Networks of equities in financial markets," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 38(2), pages 363-371, March.
    23. Wang, Zong-Run & Chen, Xiao-Hong & Jin, Yan-Bo & Zhou, Yan-Ju, 2010. "Estimating risk of foreign exchange portfolio: Using VaR and CVaR based on GARCH–EVT-Copula model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4918-4928.
    24. Claudio Albanese & Toufik Bellaj & Guillaume Gimonet & Giacomo Pietronero, 2011. "Coherent global market simulations and securitization measures for counterparty credit risk," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20.
    25. Goldstein, Robert S, 2000. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates as a Random Field," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(2), pages 365-384.
    26. Eom, Cheoljun & Oh, Gabjin & Jung, Woo-Sung & Jeong, Hawoong & Kim, Seunghwan, 2009. "Topological properties of stock networks based on minimal spanning tree and random matrix theory in financial time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(6), pages 900-906.
    27. Woo Chang Kim & John Mulvey, 2009. "Evaluating style investment—Does a fund market defined along equity styles add value?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(6), pages 637-651.
    28. Parameswaran Gopikrishnan & Martin Meyer & Luis A Nunes Amaral & H Eugene Stanley, 1998. "Inverse Cubic Law for the Probability Distribution of Stock Price Variations," Papers cond-mat/9803374, arXiv.org, revised May 1998.
    29. Francis A. Longstaff & Pedro Santa‐Clara & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2001. "The Relative Valuation of Caps and Swaptions: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2067-2109, December.
    30. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1992. "Interest Rate Volatility and the Term Structure: A Two-Factor General Equilibrium Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1259-1282, September.
    31. L. Kullmann & J. Kertesz & K. Kaski, 2002. "Time dependent cross correlations between different stock returns: A directed network of influence," Papers cond-mat/0203256, arXiv.org, revised May 2002.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lloyd, S. P., 2017. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Interest Rate Channel: Signalling and Portfolio Rebalancing," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1735, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Bueno-Guerrero, Alberto, 2022. "A Quantum Mechanics for interest rate derivatives markets," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    3. Mensi, Walid & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Zeitun, Rami & Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2017. "Diversification potential of Asian frontier, BRIC emerging and major developed stock markets: A wavelet-based value at risk approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 130-147.
    4. Kim, Min Jae & Kim, Sehyun & Jo, Yong Hwan & Kim, Soo Yong, 2011. "Dependence structure of the commodity and stock markets, and relevant multi-spread strategy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3842-3854.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Ludovico Minati & Pawe{l} O'swik{e}cimka & Marek Stanuszek, 2020. "Multiscale characteristics of the emerging global cryptocurrency market," Papers 2010.15403, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
    2. Stanley, H. Eugene & Plerou, Vasiliki & Gabaix, Xavier, 2008. "A statistical physics view of financial fluctuations: Evidence for scaling and universality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3967-3981.
    3. Siqueira, Erinaldo Leite & Stošić, Tatijana & Bejan, Lucian & Stošić, Borko, 2010. "Correlations and cross-correlations in the Brazilian agrarian commodities and stocks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(14), pages 2739-2743.
    4. Stanley, H.Eugene, 2003. "Statistical physics and economic fluctuations: do outliers exist?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 318(1), pages 279-292.
    5. Stanley, H.E. & Amaral, L.A.N. & Gabaix, X. & Gopikrishnan, P. & Plerou, V., 2001. "Similarities and differences between physics and economics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 299(1), pages 1-15.
    6. Stanley, H.E. & Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki, 2007. "Economic fluctuations and statistical physics: Quantifying extremely rare and less rare events in finance," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 382(1), pages 286-301.
    7. Stanley, H.E & Amaral, L.A.N & Gopikrishnan, P & Plerou, V, 2000. "Scale invariance and universality of economic fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 31-41.
    8. Stanley, H.E. & Gopikrishnan, P. & Plerou, V. & Amaral, L.A.N., 2000. "Quantifying fluctuations in economic systems by adapting methods of statistical physics," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 339-361.
    9. Marcin Wk{a}torek & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z, 2021. "Financial Return Distributions: Past, Present, and COVID-19," Papers 2107.06659, arXiv.org.
    10. Peng Yue & Qing Cai & Wanfeng Yan & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2020. "Information flow networks of Chinese stock market sectors," Papers 2004.08759, arXiv.org.
    11. Lautier, Delphine & Raynaud, Franck, 2011. "Statistical properties of derivatives: A journey in term structures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(11), pages 2009-2019.
    12. T. T. Chen & B. Zheng & Y. Li & X. F. Jiang, 2017. "New approaches in agent-based modeling of complex financial systems," Papers 1703.06840, arXiv.org.
    13. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2016. "Dynamical cross-correlation of multiple time series Ising model," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 455-468, December.
    14. Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2003. "Understanding the cubic and half-cubic laws of financial fluctuations," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 1-5.
    15. Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2007. "Statistical properties of daily ensemble variables in the Chinese stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 383(2), pages 497-506.
    16. Carvalho, Rui & Penn, Alan, 2004. "Scaling and universality in the micro-structure of urban space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 332(C), pages 539-547.
    17. Michael C. Munnix & Rudi Schafer, 2011. "A Copula Approach on the Dynamics of Statistical Dependencies in the US Stock Market," Papers 1102.1099, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
    18. Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034, Decembrie.
    19. Gabaix, Xavier & Gopikrishnan, Parameswaran & Plerou, Vasiliki & Eugene Stanley, H., 2008. "Quantifying and understanding the economics of large financial movements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 303-319, January.
    20. Gautier Marti & Frank Nielsen & Miko{l}aj Bi'nkowski & Philippe Donnat, 2017. "A review of two decades of correlations, hierarchies, networks and clustering in financial markets," Papers 1703.00485, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2020.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:390:y:2011:i:13:p:2531-2548. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.