IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/labeco/v51y2018icp25-37.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Effectiveness of early retirement disincentives: Individual welfare, distributional and fiscal implications

Author

Listed:
  • Bönke, Timm
  • Kemptner, Daniel
  • Lüthen, Holger

Abstract

In aging societies, information on how to reform pension systems is essential to policy makers. This study scrutinizes effects of early retirement disincentives on retirement behavior, individual welfare, pensions and public budget. We employ administrative pension data and a detailed model of the German tax and social security system to estimate a structural dynamic retirement model. We find that retirement behavior is strongly influenced by the level of disincentives. Further, disincentives come at the cost of increasing inequality and individual welfare losses. Still, net public returns are about three times as high as monetarized individual welfare losses. Our estimates also suggest that similar levels of net public returns, if achieved by indiscriminating pension cuts, are associated with individual welfare losses that are more than twice as high.

Suggested Citation

  • Bönke, Timm & Kemptner, Daniel & Lüthen, Holger, 2018. "Effectiveness of early retirement disincentives: Individual welfare, distributional and fiscal implications," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 25-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:51:y:2018:i:c:p:25-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.labeco.2017.11.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927537117300842
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.labeco.2017.11.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Antonczyk, Dirk & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Sommerfeld, Katrin, 2010. "Rising wage inequality, the decline of collective bargaining, and the gender wage gap," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 835-847, October.
    3. Gustman, Alan L. & Steinmeier, Thomas L., 2015. "Effects of social security policies on benefit claiming, retirement and saving," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 51-62.
    4. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    5. Day Manoli & Kathleen J. Mullen & Mathis Wagner, 2015. "Policy Variation, Labor Supply Elasticities, And A Structural Model Of Retirement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(4), pages 1702-1717, October.
    6. Hanel, Barbara, 2010. "Financial incentives to postpone retirement and further effects on employment -- Evidence from a natural experiment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 474-486, June.
    7. John Rust & Christopher Phelan, 1997. "How Social Security and Medicare Affect Retirement Behavior in a World of Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(4), pages 781-832, July.
    8. Holger Lüthen, 2016. "Rates of Return and Early Retirement Disincentives: Evidence from a German Pension Reform," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 17(2), pages 206-233, May.
    9. Laun, Tobias & Wallenius, Johanna, 2015. "A life cycle model of health and retirement: The case of Swedish pension reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 127-136.
    10. Timm Bönke & Giacomo Corneo & Holger Lüthen, 2015. "Lifetime Earnings Inequality in Germany," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 33(1), pages 171-208.
    11. Timm Bönke & Carsten Schröder & Katharina Schulte, 2010. "Incomes and Inequality in the Long Run: The Case of German Elderly," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 11(4), pages 487-510, November.
    12. Haan, Peter & Prowse, Victoria, 2014. "Longevity, life-cycle behavior and pension reform," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 582-601.
    13. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2009. "Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts: Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1224-1233, December.
    14. Diamond, P. A. & Mirrlees, J. A., 1978. "A model of social insurance with variable retirement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 295-336, December.
    15. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2007. "Future Social Security Entitlements and the Retirement Decision," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(2), pages 234-246, May.
    16. van der Klaauw, Wilbert & Wolpin, Kenneth I., 2008. "Social security and the retirement and savings behavior of low-income households," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 21-42, July.
    17. repec:bla:scandj:v:103:y:2001:i:3:p:505-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Jonathan Gruber & David A. Wise, 2007. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number grub07-1.
    19. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
    20. Timm Bönke & Sebastian Eichfelder, 2010. "Horizontal Equity in the German Tax-Benefit System: A Simulation Approach for Employees," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 66(3), pages 295-331, September.
    21. Richard Blundell & Costas Meghir & Sarah Smith, 2002. "Pension Incentives and the Pattern of Early Retirement," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(478), pages 153-170, March.
    22. repec:bla:germec:v:11:y:2010:i::p:487-510 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Axel Borsch‐Supan & Anette Reil‐Held, 2001. "How Much is Transfer and How Much is Insurance in a Pay‐as‐you‐go System? The German Case," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 103(3), pages 505-524, September.
    24. Giacomo Corneo & Johannes König & Carsten Schröder, 2018. "Distributional Effects of Subsidizing Retirement Savings Accounts: Evidence from Germany," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 74(4), pages 415-445, December.
    25. Staubli, Stefan & Zweimüller, Josef, 2013. "Does raising the early retirement age increase employment of older workers?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 17-32.
    26. Kadir Atalay & Garry F. Barrett, 2015. "The Impact of Age Pension Eligibility Age on Retirement and Program Dependence: Evidence from an Australian Experiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(1), pages 71-87, March.
    27. Day Manoli & Kathleen J. Mullen & Mathis Wagner, 2015. "Policy Variation, Labor Supply Elasticities, And A Structural Model Of Retirement," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 53(4), pages 1702-1717, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Antje Mertens & Laura Romeu-Gordo, 2023. "Retirement in Western Germany – How Workplace Tasks Influence Its Timing," Work, Employment & Society, British Sociological Association, vol. 37(2), pages 467-485, April.
    2. Andersen, Asbjørn Goul & Markussen, Simen & Røed, Knut, 2021. "Pension reform and the efficiency-equity trade-off: Impacts of removing an early retirement subsidy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    3. Lorenz, Svenja & Zwick, Thomas & Bruns, Mona, 2022. "Beware of the employer: Financial incentives for employees may fail to prolong old-age employment," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 21(C).
    4. Mona Larsen & Peder J. Pedersen, 2017. "Labour force activity after 65: what explain recent trends in Denmark, Germany and Sweden? [Arbeitsmarktbeteiligung von über 65-Jährigen: Ursachen für die jüngsten Entwicklungstrends in Dänemark, D," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 50(1), pages 15-27, August.
    5. Laub, Natalie & Boockmann, Bernhard & Kroczek, Martin, 2023. "Tightening Access to Early Retirement: Who Can Adapt?," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277625, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Baldermann, Claudia & Salvati, Nicola & Schmid, Timo, 2016. "Robust small area estimation under spatial non-stationarity," Discussion Papers 2016/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Songül Tolan, 2017. "The Effect of Partial Retirement on Labor Supply, Public Balances and the Income Distribution: Evidence from a Structural Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1679, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Kemptner, Daniel & Timm, Boenke & Holger, Luethen, 2014. "The introduction of disincentives for early retirement and its effect on labor market participation," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100446, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Blundell, R. & French, E. & Tetlow, G., 2016. "Retirement Incentives and Labor Supply," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 457-566, Elsevier.
    4. Kemptner, Daniel, 2019. "Health-related life cycle risks and public insurance," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 227-245.
    5. Engels, Barbara & Geyer, Johannes & Haan, Peter, 2017. "Pension incentives and early retirement," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 216-231.
    6. Hanel, Barbara & Riphahn, Regina T., 2012. "The timing of retirement — New evidence from Swiss female workers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 718-728.
    7. Haan, Peter & Tolan, Songül, 2019. "Labor supply and fiscal effects of partial retirement – The role of entry age and the timing of pension benefits," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 14(C).
    8. Haan, Peter & Prowse, Victoria, 2014. "Longevity, life-cycle behavior and pension reform," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 582-601.
    9. Fürstenau, Elisabeth & Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Weinhardt, Felix, 2023. "Working life and human capital investment: Causal evidence from a pension reform," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    10. Alfonso Sánchez-Martin & J. García-Pérez & Sergi Jiménez-Martín, 2014. "Delaying the Normal and Early Retirement Ages in Spain: Behavioural and Welfare Consequences for Employed and Unemployed Workers," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 341-375, December.
    11. Ye, Han, 2018. "The Effect of Pension Subsidies on Retirement Timing of Older Women: Evidence from a Regression Kink Design," IZA Discussion Papers 11831, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Kurz, Elisabeth & Weinhardt, Felix, 2020. "Working Life and Human Capital Investment: Causal Evidence from Pension Reform," IZA Discussion Papers 12891, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Korfhage, Thorben, 2019. "Long-run consequences of informal elderly care and implications of public long-term care insurance," Ruhr Economic Papers 813, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Kemptner, Daniel, 2019. "Health-related life cycle risks and public insurance," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 65, pages 227-245.
    15. Jiayi Wen, 2018. "Occupational Retirement and Pension Reform: The Roles of Physical and Cognitive Health," Working Papers 2018-12-04, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University, revised 28 May 2023.
    16. Niklas Gohl & Peter Haan & Elisabeth Kurz & Felix Weinhardt, 2021. "Working life and human capital investment," CEP Discussion Papers dp1753, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    17. Holger Lüthen, 2016. "Rates of Return and Early Retirement Disincentives: Evidence from a German Pension Reform," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 17(2), pages 206-233, May.
    18. Gohl, Niklas & Haan, Peter & Kurz, Elisabeth & Weinhardt, Felix Julian, 2021. "Working life and human capital investment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    19. Todd Morris, 2022. "The unequal burden of retirement reform: Evidence from Australia," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 592-619, April.
    20. Riphahn, Regina T. & Schrader, Rebecca, 2023. "Reforms of an early retirement pathway in Germany and their labor market effects," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(3), pages 304-330, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic discrete choice; Retirement; Tax and pension system; Pension reform;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:labeco:v:51:y:2018:i:c:p:25-37. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/labeco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.