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A climate stress test on the financial vulnerability of Italian households and firms

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  • Faiella, Ivan
  • Lavecchia, Luciano
  • Michelangeli, Valentina
  • Mistretta, Alessandro

Abstract

This study presents a novel methodological framework for assessing the exposure of the Italian financial system to climate policy risks, using a micro-founded approach. By combining survey and administrative data with energy accounts and energy prices, we estimate the energy demand elasticity of Italian households and firms at the micro-level and we use this information to simulate the effects of four one-off carbon taxes (corresponding to €50, €100, €200 and €800 per ton of CO2) on their income and profits. To compute if (and how) carbon taxes might affect the share of financially vulnerable agents and the debt at risk, these estimates are employed as an input for the microsimulation models used to monitor financial stability at the Bank of Italy. According to our results, a level of carbon taxation within the range of €50−200 per ton does not have a sizeable effect on the share of financially vulnerable agents. The micro approach allows us to take into account the heterogeneous transmission channels of climate risks and indicates that the financial risks stemming from climate shocks are limited overall and specific to individual households and industries.

Suggested Citation

  • Faiella, Ivan & Lavecchia, Luciano & Michelangeli, Valentina & Mistretta, Alessandro, 2022. "A climate stress test on the financial vulnerability of Italian households and firms," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 396-417.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:44:y:2022:i:2:p:396-417
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2021.11.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrea Colabella & Luciano Lavecchia & Valentina Michelangeli & Raffaella Pico, 2023. "To eat or to heat: are energy bills squeezing people's spending?," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 800, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Francesco Caloia & David-Jan Jansen, 2021. "Flood risk and financial stability: Evidence from a stress test for the Netherlands," Working Papers 730, DNB.
    4. Aiello, Maria Alessia & Angelico, Cristina, 2023. "Climate change and credit risk: The effect of carbon tax on Italian banks' business loan default rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 187-201.
    5. Di Virgilio, Stefano & Faiella, Ivan & Mistretta, Alessandro & Narizzano, Simone, 2024. "Assessing credit risk sensitivity to climate and energy shocks: Towards a common minimum standards in line with the ECB climate agenda," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 552-568.
    6. Maria Alessia Aiello, 2024. "Climate supervisory shocks and bank lending: empirical evidence from microdata," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1465, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Emambakhsh, Tina & Fuchs, Maximilian & Kördel, Simon & Kouratzoglou, Charalampos & Lelli, Chiara & Pizzeghello, Riccardo & Salleo, Carmelo & Spaggiari, Martina, 2023. "The Road to Paris: stress testing the transition towards a net-zero economy," Occasional Paper Series 328, European Central Bank.
    8. François Koulischer & Pauline Perray & Thi Thu Huyen Tran, 2022. "COVID-19 and the Mortgage Market in Luxembourg," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, March.
    9. Jozef Kalman & Jan Klacso & Roman Vasil & Juraj Zeman, 2023. "What's the Cost of "Saving the Planet" for Banks? Assessing the Indirect Impact of Climate Transition Risks on Slovak Banks' Loan Portfolios," Working and Discussion Papers WP 7/2023, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Carbon tax; Climate stress test; Financial vulnerability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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