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Consumption smoothing or consumption binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil

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  • Garber, Gabriel
  • Mian, Atif
  • Ponticelli, Jacopo
  • Sufi, Amir

Abstract

Brazil initiated a major credit expansion program through government banks in 2011. The program primarily targeted public sector workers with offers of payroll-backed loans. Using individual-level administrative data we find that the program led to a 15 percentage point rise in debt to initial income for public sector workers. We develop a new method for estimating workers' expected income growth, and show that “consumption smoothing” cannot explain the rise in consumer borrowing. Instead, the evidence supports “consumption binging”: less financially sophisticated workers borrowed more at high real interest rates, and experienced both higher consumption volatility and lower average consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • Garber, Gabriel & Mian, Atif & Ponticelli, Jacopo & Sufi, Amir, 2024. "Consumption smoothing or consumption binging? The effects of government-led consumer credit expansion in Brazil," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:156:y:2024:i:c:s0304405x24000576
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103834
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit booms; Payroll loans; Credit card expenditure;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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