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Survival in speculative markets

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  • Dindo, Pietro

Abstract

In this paper, I consider an exchange economy with complete markets where agents have heterogeneous beliefs and, possibly, preferences, and investigate the Market Selection Hypothesis that speculation rewards the agent with the most accurate beliefs. First, on the methodological level, I derive the relative consumption dynamics as a function of agents' effective discount factors, related to consumption decisions across time, and agents' effective beliefs, related to consumption decisions across states. Sufficient conditions for agents' survival, either in isolation or in a group, depend on the relative size of effective discount factors and on the relative accuracy of effective beliefs. Then, I show that in economies where agents maximize an Epstein–Zin utility the Market Selection Hypothesis fails: there exist parametrizations where the agent with correct beliefs vanishes and parametrizations where beliefs heterogeneity persists in the long run. Results are robust to local changes of beliefs, risk preferences, and the aggregate endowment process. These failures are shown not to occur when agents' Epstein–Zin utility has a subjective expected utility representation due to an interdependence of effective discount factors and effective beliefs.

Suggested Citation

  • Dindo, Pietro, 2019. "Survival in speculative markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 1-43.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jetheo:v:181:y:2019:i:c:p:1-43
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jet.2019.02.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Massari, Filippo, 2019. "Market selection in large economies: a matter of luck," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(2), May.
    2. Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2022. "Strategically Biased Learning In Market Interactions," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 25(02n03), pages 1-18, March.
    3. Saki Bigio & Eduardo Zilberman, 2020. "Speculation-Driven Business Cycles," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 865, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Dindo, Pietro & Massari, Filippo, 2020. "The wisdom of the crowd in dynamic economies," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 15(4), November.
    5. Norman, Thomas W.L., 2020. "Market selection with an endogenous state," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 51-59.
    6. Giulio Bottazzi & Daniele Giachini, 2020. "Selection in incomplete markets and the CAPM portfolio rule," LEM Papers Series 2020/29, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Bottazzi, Giulio & Giachini, Daniele & Ottaviani, Matteo, 2023. "Market selection and learning under model misspecification," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Hirshleifer, David & Lo, Andrew W. & Zhang, Ruixun, 2023. "Social contagion and the survival of diverse investment styles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    9. Wang, Hailong & Hu, Duni, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs with herding behaviors and asset pricing in two goods world," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2019. "Momentum and reversal in financial markets with persistent heterogeneity," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 455-487, December.
    11. Lei Shi & Yajun Xiao, 2021. "Dynamic Asset Pricing with Interactions between Short-Sale and Borrowing Constraints [Multiplicity in general financial equilibrium with portfolio constraints]," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 886-923.
    12. Giulio Bottazzi & Pietro Dindo & Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Long-run heterogeneity in an exchange economy with fixed-mix traders," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 66(2), pages 407-447, August.
    13. Daniele Giachini, 2018. "Rationality and Asset Prices under Belief Heterogeneity," LEM Papers Series 2018/07, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    14. Han, Kookyoung, 2021. "Self-enforcement, heterogeneous agents, and long-run survival," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    15. Pohl, Walter & Schmedders, Karl & Wilms, Ole, 2021. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous agents and long-run risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(3), pages 941-964.
    16. Bottazzi, Giulio & Dindo, Pietro, 2022. "Drift criteria for persistence of discrete stochastic processes on the line," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    17. Daniele Giachini, 2021. "Rationality and asset prices under belief heterogeneity," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 207-233, January.
    18. Massari, Filippo, 2017. "Markets with heterogeneous beliefs: A necessary and sufficient condition for a trader to vanish," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 190-205.
    19. Li, Kai & Liu, Jun, 2023. "Extrapolative asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Heterogeneous beliefs; Speculation; Market selection hypothesis; Asset pricing; Optimal growth portfolio; Epstein–Zin utility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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