IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jebusi/v52y2000i1-2p87-100.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity

Author

Listed:
  • Orphanides, Athanasios
  • Porter, Richard D.

Abstract

This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation using the P* model. The recursive estimates of equilibrium velocity are obtained by applying regression trees and least squares methods to a standard representation of M2 demand, namely a model in which the velocity of M2 depends on the opportunity cost of holding M2 instruments. Equilibrium velocity is defined as the level of velocity that would be expected to obtain if deposit rates were at their long-run average (equilibrium) value. We simulate the alternative models to obtain real-time forecasts of inflation and evaluate the performance of the forecasts obtained from the alternative models. We find that while a $P^*$ model assuming a constant equilibrium velocity does not provide accurate inflation forecasts in the 1990s, a model based on our time-varying equilibrium velocity estimates does quite well.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Orphanides, Athanasios & Porter, Richard D., 2000. "P revisited: money-based inflation forecasts with a changing equilibrium velocity," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 87-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:52:y:2000:i:1-2:p:87-100
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0148-6195(99)00028-4
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Athanasios Orphanides & Brian K. Reid & David H. Small, 1994. "The empirical properties of a monetary aggregate that adds bond and stock funds to M2," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 31-51.
    2. Evan F. Koenig, 1994. "The P* model of inflation revisited," Working Papers 9414, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    3. Hallman, Jeffrey J & Porter, Richard D & Small, David H, 1991. "Is the Price Level Tied to the M2 Monetary Aggregate in the Long Run?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(4), pages 841-858, September.
    4. Joshua N. Feinman & Richard D. Porter, 1992. "The continuing weakness in the M2," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 209, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Sean Collins & William C. Whitesell, 1996. "A minor redefinition of M2," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 96-7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlson, John B. & Craig, Ben & Schwarz, Jeffrey C., 2000. "Structural uncertainty and breakpoint tests: an application to equilibrium velocity1," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 101-115.
    2. Evan F. Koenig, 1996. "Forecasting M2 growth: an exploration in real time," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q II, pages 16-26.
    3. Gauger, Jean, 1998. "Economic Impacts on the Money Supply Process," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 553-577, July.
    4. Scharnagl, Michael, 1996. "Geldmengenaggregate unter Berücksichtigung struktureller Veränderungen an den Finanzmärkten," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 1996,02, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Mr. David Cook & Woon Gyu Choi, 2007. "Financial Market Risk and U.S. Money Demand," IMF Working Papers 2007/089, International Monetary Fund.
    6. John V. Duca, 1994. "Would the addition of bond or equity funds make M2 a better indicator of nominal GDP?," Economic and Financial Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Q IV, pages 1-14.
    7. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 199-228, August.
    8. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Averaging forecasts from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 5-29, January.
    9. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    10. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    11. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2015. "A “Working” Solution To The Question Of Nominal Gdp Targeting," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(3), pages 508-534, April.
    12. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    13. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Does the P* Model Provide Any Rationale for Monetary Targeting?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 1(1), pages 69-81, February.
    15. Madsen, Jakob B., 2002. "The share market boom and the recent disinflation in the OECD countries: the tax-effects, the inflation-illusion and the risk-aversion hypotheses reconsidered1," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 115-141.
    16. Chaubal Aditi, 2018. "P-star model for India: a nonlinear approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(5), pages 1-28, December.
    17. Melecky, Martin, 2008. "An alternative framework for foreign exchange risk management of sovereign debt," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4458, The World Bank.
    18. Richard G. Anderson & Barry E. Jones & Travis D. Nesmith, 1997. "Special report: The monetary services index project of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: introduction to the St. Louis monetary services index project," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 25-30.
    19. Yash P. Mehra, 1995. "Some key empirical determinants of short-term nominal interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 33-51.
    20. William A. Barnett, 2000. "Which Road Leads to Stable Money Demand?," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: The Theory of Monetary Aggregation, pages 577-592, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:52:y:2000:i:1-2:p:87-100. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-economics-and-business .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.