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Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty

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  • Drew, Aaron
  • Hunt, Benjamin

Abstract

Simple rules for guiding monetary policy actions have been shown to achieve policy objectives effectively. In many of these simple rules, policy prescriptions depend on the economy's level of potential output. However, potential output is unobservable and is estimated with uncertainty. We examine the effects that this uncertainty has on the stabilisation properties of three classes of simple efficient policy rules. Although the stabilisation properties deteriorate under uncertainty, the deterioration is less pronounced for rules that use forecasts of inflation rather than just contemporaneous inflation. Under the uncertainty considered, the magnitudes of the efficient response coefficients tend to increase.
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Suggested Citation

  • Drew, Aaron & Hunt, Benjamin, 2000. "Efficient simple policy rules and the implications of potential output uncertainty," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 143-160.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jebusi:v:52:y:2000:i:1-2:p:143-160
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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