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Does eductive stability imply evolutionary stability?

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  • Hommes, Cars
  • Wagener, Florian

Abstract

This note presents a simple example of a model in which the unique rational expectations (RE) steady state equilibrium is eductively stable in the sense of Guesnerie (2002), but where evolutionary learning, as introduced in Brock and Hommes (1997), does not necessarily converge to the RE steady state price. The example is a Muthian cobweb model where producers have heterogeneous expectations and select forecasting strategies based upon recent realized profits. By means of a simple three types example we show that a locally stable RE fundamental steady state may co-exists with a locally stable two-cycle. We also study the Muthian model with a large number of different producer types, and investigate conditions under which an evolutionary adaptive learning process based upon recent realized profits enforces global convergence to the stable RE steady state and when persistent periodic price fluctuations can arise.

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  • Hommes, Cars & Wagener, Florian, 2010. "Does eductive stability imply evolutionary stability?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 25-39, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:75:y:2010:i:1:p:25-39
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    1. Hommes, Cars & Li, Kai & Wagener, Florian, 2022. "Production delays and price dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 194(C), pages 341-362.
    2. Desgranges, Gabriel & Gauthier, Stéphane, 2016. "Rationalizability and efficiency in an asymmetric Cournot oligopoly," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 163-176.
    3. Berardi, Michele, 2022. "Beliefs asymmetry and price stability in a cobweb model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 401-415.
    4. Hector Calvo-Pardo, 2009. "Are the antiglobalists right? Gains-from-trade without a Walrasian auctioneer," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 38(3), pages 561-592, March.
    5. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6. Cars Hommes, 2010. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: some evidence from the lab," Post-Print hal-00753041, HAL.
    7. Bao, Te & Duffy, John, 2016. "Adaptive versus eductive learning: Theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 64-89.
    8. Anufriev, Mikhail & Assenza, Tiziana & Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico, 2013. "Interest Rate Rules And Macroeconomic Stability Under Heterogeneous Expectations," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(8), pages 1574-1604, December.
    9. Naimzada, Ahmad & Pireddu, Marina, 2020. "Eductive stability may not imply evolutionary stability in the presence of information costs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    10. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2021. "The opposite effect of rational expectations and differentiated information costs for heterogeneous fundamentalists on the stability of an evolutive Muthian cobweb model," Working Papers 460, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2021.
    11. Calvo Pardo, H., 2007. "Are the antiglobalists right? Gains-from-trade without a walrasian acutioneer," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0712, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    12. George W Evans & Roger Guesnerie & Bruce McGough, 2019. "Eductive Stability in Real Business Cycle Models," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(618), pages 821-852.
    13. Anufriev, M. & Assenza, T. & Hommes, C.H. & Massaro, D., 2008. "Interest Rate Rules with Heterogeneous Expectations," CeNDEF Working Papers 08-08, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    14. Bao, T. & Duffy, J., 2014. "Adaptive vs. eductive learning," Research Report 14002-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    15. repec:dgr:rugsom:14002-eef is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Gerunov, Anton, 2014. "Критичен Преглед На Основните Подходи За Моделиране На Икономическите Очаквания [A Critical Review of Major Approaches for Modeling Economic Expectations]," MPRA Paper 68797, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pecora, Nicolò & Spelta, Alessandro, 2017. "Managing monetary policy in a New Keynesian model with many beliefs types," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 53-58.
    18. Calvo Pardo, H., 2007. "Are the antiglobalists right? Gains-from-trade without a walrasian acutioneer," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 712, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    19. Nicolò Pecora & Alessandro Spelta, 2013. "Macroeconomic Stability and Heterogeneous Expectations," DEM Working Papers Series 037, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    20. Naimzada, Ahmad & Pireddu, Marina, 2020. "Rational expectations (may) lead to complex dynamics in a Muthian cobweb model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 415-432.
    21. Jawadi, Fredj & Namouri, Hela & Ftiti, Zied, 2018. "An analysis of the effect of investor sentiment in a heterogeneous switching transition model for G7 stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 469-484.

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