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Financial contagion risk and the stochastic discount factor

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  • Piccotti, Louis R.

Abstract

I provide evidence that financial contagion risk is an important source of the equity risk premium. Banks’ contributions to aggregate financial contagion are estimated in a state space framework and linked to systemic risk. Greater bank connectedness today leads to increased systemic risk 3–12 months later. More contagious banks earn significantly greater risk-adjusted returns than less contagious ones and the tradable high contagion-minus-low contagion bank portfolio is priced in the cross-section of stock returns. Stocks that co-move more strongly with contagious banks have greater expected returns. These results are robust to factor model specification, test assets, and time period considered.

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  • Piccotti, Louis R., 2017. "Financial contagion risk and the stochastic discount factor," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 230-248.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:77:y:2017:i:c:p:230-248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2017.01.012
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