IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v47y2014icp288-295.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling long run comovements in equity markets: A flexible approach

Author

Listed:
  • Martins, Luis F.
  • Gabriel, Vasco J.

Abstract

International equity markets linkages are characterized by nonlinear dependence and asymmetries. We investigate shifts in long run comovements in stock markets by means of an ‘interrupted’ Markov switching cointegration specification. This flexible approach allow us to study to what extent documented changes in global integration are permanent, or whether market linkages are subject to changes. Using an illustrative sample from 1980 to 2012 for USA, UK and Hong Kong stock price indices, we find evidence of interrupted cointegration across these markets between May 1997 and April 2002, which is consistent with the decoupling of stock prices from fundamentals during the dot-com bubble.

Suggested Citation

  • Martins, Luis F. & Gabriel, Vasco J., 2014. "Modelling long run comovements in equity markets: A flexible approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 288-295.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:288-295
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.05.029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426614001964
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.05.029?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balke, Nathan S & Fomby, Thomas B, 1997. "Threshold Cointegration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(3), pages 627-645, August.
    2. repec:bla:jcmkts:v:48:y:2010:i::p:641-660 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Acharya, Viral V. & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2005. "Asset pricing with liquidity risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 375-410, August.
    4. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
    5. Garcia, René & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "Dependence structure and extreme comovements in international equity and bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1954-1970, August.
    6. Granger, Clive W.J. & YOON, GAWON, 2002. "Hidden Cointegration," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9qn5f61j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    7. Campbell, John Y., 1987. "Stock returns and the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 373-399, June.
    8. Hansen, Peter Reinhard, 2003. "Structural changes in the cointegrated vector autoregressive model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 261-295, June.
    9. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & John Moore, 2002. "Evil Is the Root of All Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 62-66, May.
    10. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2009. "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(6), pages 2201-2238, June.
    11. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    12. Bierens, Herman J. & Martins, Luis F., 2010. "Time-Varying Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(5), pages 1453-1490, October.
    13. Saikkonen, Pentti & Choi, In, 2004. "Cointegrating Smooth Transition Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(2), pages 301-340, April.
    14. Francq, C. & Zakoian, J. -M., 2001. "Stationarity of multivariate Markov-switching ARMA models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 339-364, June.
    15. In Choi & Pentti Saikkonen, 2004. "Testing linearity in cointegrating smooth transition regressions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(2), pages 341-365, December.
    16. B. P. M. McCabe & S. J. Leybourne & Y. Shin, 1997. "A Parametric approach to testing the null of cointegration," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 395-413, July.
    17. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
    18. Laura E. Kodres & Matthew Pritsker, 2002. "A Rational Expectations Model of Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 769-799, April.
    19. Park, Joon Y. & Hahn, Sang B., 1999. "Cointegrating Regressions With Time Varying Coefficients," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 664-703, October.
    20. Corhay, A. & Tourani Rad, A. & Urbain, J. -P., 1993. "Common stochastic trends in European stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 385-390.
    21. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    22. Lutkepohl, Helmut & Saikkonen, Pentti & Trenkler, Carsten, 2003. "Comparison of tests for the cointegrating rank of a VAR process with a structural shift," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 201-229, April.
    23. Umutlu, Mehmet & Akdeniz, Levent & Altay-Salih, Aslihan, 2010. "The degree of financial liberalization and aggregated stock-return volatility in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 509-521, March.
    24. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2005. "Testing for contagion: a conditional correlation analysis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 476-489, June.
    25. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    26. Ramchand, Latha & Susmel, Raul, 1998. "Volatility and cross correlation across major stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 397-416, October.
    27. Haldane, A G & Hall, S G, 1991. "Sterling's Relationship with the Dollar and the Deutschemark: 1976-89," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(406), pages 436-443, May.
    28. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    29. Raj Aggarwal & Brian Lucey & Cal Muckley, 2010. "Dynamics of Equity Market Integration in Europe: Impact of Political Economy Events," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(3), pages 641-660, June.
    30. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    31. Siklos, Pierre L. & Granger, Clive W.J., 1997. "Regime-Sensitive Cointegration With An Application To Interest-Rate Parity," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(3), pages 640-657, September.
    32. Zacharias Psaradakis & Martin Sola & Fabio Spagnolo, 2004. "On Markov error-correction models, with an application to stock prices and dividends," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 69-88.
    33. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    34. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
    35. Kim, Jae-Young, 2003. "Inference On Segmented Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 620-639, August.
    36. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    37. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Time-Varying World Market Integration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 403-444, June.
    38. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock market linkages in emerging markets: implications for international portfolio diversification," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 91-106, April.
    39. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    40. Leybourne, S J & McCabe, B P M, 1999. "Modified Stationarity Tests with Data-Dependent Model-Selection Rules," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(2), pages 264-270, April.
    41. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
    42. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    43. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501.
    44. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    45. Shin, Yongcheol, 1994. "A Residual-Based Test of the Null of Cointegration Against the Alternative of No Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 91-115, March.
    46. Hall, Stephen G & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 1997. "Cointegration and Changes in Regime: The Japanese Consumption Function," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 151-168, March-Apr.
    47. Favero, Carlo A. & Giavazzi, Francesco, 2002. "Is the international propagation of financial shocks non-linear?: Evidence from the ERM," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 231-246, June.
    48. Zhongjun Qu, 2007. "Searching for cointegration in a dynamic system," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(3), pages 580-604, November.
    49. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    50. Seo, Byeongseon, 1998. "Tests For Structural Change In Cointegrated Systems," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 222-259, April.
    51. Corradi, Valentina & Distaso, Walter & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2012. "International market links and volatility transmission," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 117-141.
    52. Mr. Ray Yeu-Tien Chou & Mr. Victor Ng & Lynn K. Pi, 1994. "Cointegration of International Stock Market Indices," IMF Working Papers 1994/094, International Monetary Fund.
    53. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, March.
    54. Manning, Neil, 2002. "Common trends and convergence? South East Asian equity markets, 1988-1999," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 183-202, April.
    55. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Do house prices hedge inflation in the US? A quantile cointegration approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 15-26.
    2. Lei Wu & Qingbin Meng & Kuan Xu, 2015. "'Slow-burn' spillover and 'fast and furious' contagion: a study of international stock markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(6), pages 933-958, June.
    3. Aye, Goodness C. & Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Is gold an inflation-hedge? Evidence from an interrupted Markov-switching cointegration model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 77-84.
    4. Chikashi Tsuji, 2016. "Did the expectations channel work? Evidence from quantitative easing in Japan, 2001–06," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1210996-121, December.
    5. Luca Cattivelli & Federico Antonioli, 2023. "When cointegration is interrupted: Price transmission analysis in the Italian dairy‐feed industry," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 744-761, July.
    6. Zhang, Yaojie & Ma, Feng & Liao, Yin, 2020. "Forecasting global equity market volatilities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1454-1475.
    7. Jin, Daxiang & He, Mengxi & Xing, Lu & Zhang, Yaojie, 2022. "Forecasting China's crude oil futures volatility: How to dig out the information of other energy futures volatilities?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Chlibi Souhir & Jawadi Fredj & Sellami Mohamed, 2017. "Modeling threshold effects in stock price co-movements: a vector nonlinear cointegration approach," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 47-63, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vasco Gabriel & Luis Martins, 2011. "Cointegration tests under multiple regime shifts: An application to the stock price–dividend relationship," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 639-662, December.
    2. Miller, Stephen M. & Martins, Luis Filipe & Gupta, Rangan, 2019. "A Time-Varying Approach Of The Us Welfare Cost Of Inflation," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 775-797, March.
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-474 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. M. Barari & Brian Lucey & S. Voronkova, 2008. "Reassessing co-movements among G7 equity markets: evidence from iShares," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(11), pages 863-877.
    5. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    6. Daiki Maki, 2013. "Detecting cointegration relationships under nonlinear models: Monte Carlo analysis and some applications," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 605-625, August.
    7. Vasco J. Gabriel & Martin Sola & Zacharias Psaradakis, 2001. "A simple method for testing cointegration subject to regime changes," NIPE Working Papers 15/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    8. Eiji Kurozumi & Yoichi Arai, 2007. "Efficient estimation and inference in cointegrating regressions with structural change," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(4), pages 545-575, July.
    9. Matteo Mogliani, 2010. "Residual-based tests for cointegration and multiple deterministic structural breaks: A Monte Carlo study," Working Papers halshs-00564897, HAL.
    10. Gabriel, Vasco J. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2002. "A simple method of testing for cointegration subject to multiple regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 213-221, July.
    11. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    12. Aye, Goodness C. & Chang, Tsangyao & Gupta, Rangan, 2016. "Is gold an inflation-hedge? Evidence from an interrupted Markov-switching cointegration model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 77-84.
    13. Giovanna Bua & Carmine Trecroci, 2019. "International equity markets interdependence: bigger shocks or contagion in the 21st century?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(1), pages 43-69, February.
    14. Cai, Charlie X. & Mobarek, Asma & Zhang, Qi, 2017. "International stock market leadership and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 150-162.
    15. Avishek Bhandari, 2020. "A wavelet analysis of inter-dependence, contagion and long memory among global equity markets," Papers 2003.14110, arXiv.org.
    16. Lucey, Brian M. & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2008. "Russian equity market linkages before and after the 1998 crisis: Evidence from stochastic and regime-switching cointegration tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1303-1324, December.
    17. Haug Alfred A & Beyer Andreas & Dewald William, 2011. "Structural Breaks and the Fisher Effect," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-31, May.
    18. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Masih, A. Mansur M., 2016. "Contagion and interdependence across Asia-Pacific equity markets: An analysis based on multi-horizon discrete and continuous wavelet transformations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 363-377.
    19. John Beirne & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Marianne Schulze-Ghattas & Nicola Spagnolo, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers and Contagion from Mature to Emerging Stock Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(5), pages 1060-1075, November.
    20. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    21. Yang, Lixiong & Lee, Chingnun & Shie, Fu Shuen, 2014. "How close a relationship does a capital market have with other markets? A reexamination based on the equal variance test," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 198-226.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets; Financial integration; Long run analysis; Local nonstationarity; Markov switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:288-295. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.