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The empirical similarity approach for volatility prediction

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  • Golosnoy, Vasyl
  • Hamid, Alain
  • Okhrin, Yarema

Abstract

In this paper we adapt the empirical similarity (ES) concept for the purpose of combining volatility forecasts originating from different models. Our ES approach is suitable for situations where a decision maker refrains from evaluating success probabilities of forecasting models but prefers to think by analogy. It allows to determine weights of the forecasting combination by quantifying distances between model predictions and corresponding realizations of the process of interest as they are perceived by decision makers. The proposed ES approach is applied for combining models in order to forecast daily volatility of the major stock market indices.

Suggested Citation

  • Golosnoy, Vasyl & Hamid, Alain & Okhrin, Yarema, 2014. "The empirical similarity approach for volatility prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 321-329.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:321-329
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2013.12.009
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    3. Imene Ben El Hadj Said & Skander Slim, 2022. "The Dynamic Relationship between Investor Attention and Stock Market Volatility: International Evidence," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-25, February.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Case based decisions; Empirical similarity; Forecasting combinations; Volatility forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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