IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v159y2024ics0378426623002479.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Back to the funding ratio! Addressing the duration puzzle and retirement income risk of defined contribution pension plans

Author

Listed:
  • Mantilla-Garcia, Daniel
  • Martellini, Lionel
  • Garcia-Huitrón, Manuel E.
  • Martinez-Carrasco, Miguel A.

Abstract

Effective risk management in pension funds requires the use of appropriate long-term risk and performance indicators. However, Defined Contribution (DC) pension plans currently rely on short-term metrics that don't align with the retirement income goals of beneficiaries. Against this backdrop, we introduce a funding ratio measure for DC plans defined as the plan assets divided by accrued benefits derived from any given (defined) stream of contributions. The funding ratio's denominator is the present value of the total retirement income achievable if all contributions had been invested in fully amortizing fixed-income portfolios called retirement bonds. We also use the retirement bonds to introduce a class of target-income strategies that can effectively reduce income risk as retirement approaches, but also secure minimum funding ratio levels. These simple asset allocation rules strongly dominate the standard target-date fund strategies routinely used by DC plans, in terms of retirement outcomes for beneficiaries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mantilla-Garcia, Daniel & Martellini, Lionel & Garcia-Huitrón, Manuel E. & Martinez-Carrasco, Miguel A., 2024. "Back to the funding ratio! Addressing the duration puzzle and retirement income risk of defined contribution pension plans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s0378426623002479
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.107061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426623002479
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2023.107061?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim Peijnenburg & Theo Nijman & Bas J.M. Werker, 2017. "Health Cost Risk: A Potential Solution to the Annuity Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1598-1625, August.
    2. Gregorio Impavido & Esperanza Lasagabaster & Manuel Garcia-Huitron, 2010. "New Policies for Mandatory Defined Contribution Pensions : Industrial Organization Models and Investment Products," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2462, December.
    3. Gregorio Impavido & Esperanza Lasagabaster & Manuel Garcia-Huitron, 2010. "New Policies for Mandatory Defined Contribution Pensions : Industrial Organization Models and Investment Products," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2462, September.
    4. Milevsky, Moshe A. & Salisbury, Thomas S., 2015. "Optimal retirement income tontines," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 91-105.
    5. Robert Novy‐Marx & Joshua Rauh, 2011. "Public Pension Promises: How Big Are They and What Are They Worth?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1211-1249, August.
    6. James M. Poterba, 2014. "Retirement Security in an Aging Population," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 1-30, May.
    7. Baker, George P, 1992. "Incentive Contracts and Performance Measurement," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(3), pages 598-614, June.
    8. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe, 2021. "The cost of diversification over time, and a simple way to improve target-date funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    9. Wachter, Jessica A., 2002. "Portfolio and Consumption Decisions under Mean-Reverting Returns: An Exact Solution for Complete Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 63-91, March.
    10. LuisM. Viceira & John Y. Campbell, 2001. "Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 99-127, March.
    11. Pashchenko, Svetlana, 2013. "Accounting for non-annuitization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 53-67.
    12. Michael J. Brennan & Yihong Xia, 2000. "Stochastic Interest Rates and the Bond-Stock Mix," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 4(2), pages 197-210.
    13. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    14. Manfred Gilli & Stefan Große & Enrico Schumann, 2010. "Calibrating the Nelson–Siegel–Svensson model," Working Papers 031, COMISEF.
    15. Kim, Tong Suk & Omberg, Edward, 1996. "Dynamic Nonmyopic Portfolio Behavior," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 9(1), pages 141-161.
    16. Canner, Niko & Mankiw, N Gregory & Weil, David N, 1997. "An Asset Allocation Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 181-191, March.
    17. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    18. Horneff, Vanya & Maurer, Raimond & Mitchell, Olivia S., 2020. "Putting the pension back in 401(k) retirement plans: Optimal versus default deferred longevity income annuities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    19. Taejin Han & Dariusz Stańko, 2020. "Pension scheme fees and charge ratios in 44 countries: A comparative study," International Social Security Review, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(1), pages 99-137, January.
    20. Brown, Jeffrey R., 2001. "Private pensions, mortality risk, and the decision to annuitize," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(1), pages 29-62, October.
    21. Kim Peijnenburg & Theo Nijman & Bas J.M. Werker, 2017. "Health Cost Risk: A Potential Solution to the Annuity Puzzle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(603), pages 1598-1625, August.
    22. Servaas van Bilsen & Ilja A Boelaars & A. Lans Bovenberg, 2020. "The Duration Puzzle in Life-Cycle Investment," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(6), pages 1271-1311.
    23. Menahem E. Yaari, 1965. "Uncertain Lifetime, Life Insurance, and the Theory of the Consumer," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 32(2), pages 137-150.
    24. Martellini, Lionel & Milhau, Vincent, 2012. "Dynamic allocation decisions in the presence of funding ratio constraints," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(4), pages 549-580, October.
    25. John Y. Campbell & Luis M. Viceira, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions when Expected Returns are Time Varying," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(2), pages 433-495.
    26. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    27. Rudolf, Markus & Ziemba, William T., 2004. "Intertemporal surplus management," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 975-990, February.
    28. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    29. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark J. Warshawsky, 1990. "The Cost of Annuities: Implications for Saving Behavior and Bequests," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 135-154.
    30. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    31. Detemple, Jérôme & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2008. "Dynamic asset liability management with tolerance for limited shortfalls," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 281-294, December.
    32. Nicholas Barberis, 2000. "Investing for the Long Run when Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 225-264, February.
    33. Benjamin M. Friedman & Mark Warshawsky, 1988. "Annuity Prices and Saving Behavior in the United States," NBER Chapters, in: Pensions in the U.S. Economy, pages 53-84, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    34. Munk, Claus & Sorensen, Carsten & Nygaard Vinther, Tina, 2004. "Dynamic asset allocation under mean-reverting returns, stochastic interest rates, and inflation uncertainty: Are popular recommendations consistent with rational behavior?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 141-166.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
    2. Munk, Claus & Sorensen, Carsten & Nygaard Vinther, Tina, 2004. "Dynamic asset allocation under mean-reverting returns, stochastic interest rates, and inflation uncertainty: Are popular recommendations consistent with rational behavior?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 141-166.
    3. Ferstl, Robert & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2011. "Asset-liability management under time-varying investment opportunities," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 182-192, January.
    4. Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization," Discussion Paper 2006-78, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    5. Koijen, R.S.J. & Nijman, T.E. & Werker, B.J.M., 2006. "Optimal Portfolio Choice with Annuitization," Other publications TiSEM e0ee89d5-4a5f-4c70-a7ee-d, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Yeung Lewis Chanb & M. Viceira, 2013. "A multivariate model of strategic asset allocation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part II, chapter 39, pages 809-848, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Weinbaum, David, 2005. "Subsistence consumption, habit formation and the demand for long-term bonds," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 273-287.
    8. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin‐Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2007. "Portfolio Choice over the Life‐Cycle when the Stock and Labor Markets Are Cointegrated," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2123-2167, October.
    9. Wolfram Horneff & Raimond Maurer & Michael Stamos, 2006. "Life-Cycle Asset Allocation with Annuity Markets: Is Longevity Insurance a Good Deal?," Working Papers wp146, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    10. Daniel Giamouridis & Athanasios Sakkas & Nikolaos Tessaromatis, 2017. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Liabilities," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(2), pages 254-291, March.
    11. Horneff, Wolfram J. & Maurer, Raimond H. & Stamos, Michael Z., 2008. "Life-cycle asset allocation with annuity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3590-3612, November.
    12. Penaranda, Francisco, 2007. "Portfolio choice beyond the traditional approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24481, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. John H. Cochrane, 2014. "A Mean-Variance Benchmark for Intertemporal Portfolio Theory," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 1-49, February.
    14. Sørensen, Carsten & Trolle, Anders Bjerre, 2006. "Dynamic asset allocation and latent variables," Working Papers 2004-8, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Finance.
    15. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    16. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    17. Castaneda, Pablo & Rudolph, Heinz P., 2011. "Upgrading investment regulations in second pillar pension systems : a proposal for Colombia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5775, The World Bank.
    18. Maenhout, Pascal J., 2006. "Robust portfolio rules and detection-error probabilities for a mean-reverting risk premium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 136-163, May.
    19. Costanza Torricelli, 2009. "Models For Household Portfolios And Life-Cycle Allocations In The Presence Of Labour Income And Longevity Risk," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0017, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    20. Munk, Claus, 2008. "Portfolio and consumption choice with stochastic investment opportunities and habit formation in preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 3560-3589, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:159:y:2024:i:c:s0378426623002479. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.