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Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues

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  • Strumbelj, E.
  • Sikonja, M. Robnik

Abstract

In this paper we examine the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts by analyzing 10,699 matches from six major European soccer leagues and the corresponding odds from 10 different online bookmakers. We show that the odds from some bookmakers are better forecasts than those of others, and provide empirical evidence that (a) the effectiveness of using bookmaker odds as forecasts has increased over time, and (b) bookmakers offer more effective forecasts for some soccer leagues for than others.

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  • Strumbelj, E. & Sikonja, M. Robnik, 2010. "Online bookmakers' odds as forecasts: The case of European soccer leagues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 482-488, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:26:y::i:3:p:482-488
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    Cited by:

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    7. Christian Deutscher & David Winkelmann & Marius Otting, 2020. "Bookmakers' mispricing of the disappeared home advantage in the German Bundesliga after the COVID-19 break," Papers 2008.05417, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2020.
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