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Effects of the business cycle on real exchange rate misalignments with respect to exchange rate regimes

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  • Jebeniani, Jihene
  • Trabelsi, Jamel

Abstract

This paper explores the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) misalignments and economic fundamentals with respect to the exchange rate regime choice. In a first step, using the technical inefficiency model, we measure RER misalignments and, more specifically, RER overvaluation. In a second step, we assess the effects of the main economic indicators and the choice of a country's exchange rate regime on RER overvaluation. Our empirical findings, based on nonlinear specifications and impulse response functions of Panel Vector Auto Regression (PVAR) estimations, reveal that for developing countries, and during the expansion and peak phases of the business cycle, the floating exchange rate regime may be used as a policy tool to contain the pressure in the exchange rate, and so limit overvaluation. Our findings also reveal that in the context of fixed and intermediate exchange rate regimes, an expansionary monetary policy is an effective tool to stabilize exchange rate fluctuations and mitigate overvaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jebeniani, Jihene & Trabelsi, Jamel, 2022. "Effects of the business cycle on real exchange rate misalignments with respect to exchange rate regimes," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 92-102.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:inteco:v:170:y:2022:i:c:p:92-102
    DOI: 10.1016/j.inteco.2022.02.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycle; Exchange rate regime; Output gap; Real exchange rate misalignments; Technical inefficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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