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Volatility forecast with the regularity modifications

Author

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  • Zhu, Qinwen
  • Diao, Xundi
  • Wu, Chongfeng

Abstract

The promising empirical results presented using high-frequency data show that the log-volatility behaves essentially as a fractional Brownian motion (fBm) with a Hurst exponent smaller than 0.5. Motivated by these findings, we propose the autoregressive rough volatility (ARRV) model, which combines the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) process and time series models to forecast volatility. We apply this model to the VIX index by adopting the fBm approximation technique, and our results indicate that the ARRV model can significantly improve VIX out-of-sample forecast accuracy, particularly during turbulent times.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhu, Qinwen & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2023. "Volatility forecast with the regularity modifications," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PA).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:58:y:2023:i:pa:s154461232300380x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2023.104008
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Autoregressive rough volatility model; Volatility forecasting; VIX index; High frequency data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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