IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v49y2022ics1544612322003762.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The looming crisis in the Chinese stock market? Left-tail exposure analysis of Chinese stocks to Evergrande

Author

Listed:
  • Deev, Oleg
  • Lyócsa, Štefan
  • Výrost, Tomáš

Abstract

We estimate and explain the time-varying left-tail dependence between the returns of the China Evergrande Group, a prominent real estate developer in financial distress, and 275 liquid shares traded on major Chinese stock markets. Our sample starts on 15th October 2015, and ends on 29th April 2022. The analysis reveals that the most exposed were shares of larger corporations (in terms of market capitalization) and those in the real estate and utilities sectors. On the other hand, A-shares and shares in the information technology, health care, or even consumer sectors tend to be less exposed.

Suggested Citation

  • Deev, Oleg & Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš, 2022. "The looming crisis in the Chinese stock market? Left-tail exposure analysis of Chinese stocks to Evergrande," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:49:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322003762
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.103154
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612322003762
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2022.103154?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dave Chiou & Joe Zhou & Megan Walters, 2021. "The Leverage Game: From Offshore to Onshore," Management for Professionals, in: Bing Wang & Tobias Just (ed.), Understanding China’s Real Estate Markets, edition 1, pages 139-157, Springer.
    2. Garman, Mark B & Klass, Michael J, 1980. "On the Estimation of Security Price Volatilities from Historical Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 67-78, January.
    3. Han, Heejoon & Linton, Oliver & Oka, Tatsushi & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2016. "The cross-quantilogram: Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 193(1), pages 251-270.
    4. Shi, Guangping & Liu, Xiaoxing & Zhang, Xu, 2017. "Time-varying causality between stock and housing markets in China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 227-232.
    5. Tianyang Li & Daye Li & Ming Men, 2021. "Size effect in China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(37), pages 4358-4370, August.
    6. Hu, Zhijun & Kutan, Ali M. & Sun, Ping-Wen, 2018. "Is U.S. economic policy uncertainty priced in China's A-shares market? Evidence from market, industry, and individual stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 207-220.
    7. Dave Chiou & Joe Zhou & Megan Walters, 2021. "The Leverage Game: From Offshore to Onshore," Management for Professionals, in: Bing Wang & Tobias Just (ed.), Understanding China’s Real Estate Markets, edition 2, pages 139-157, Springer.
    8. Deev, Oleg & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2020. "Connectedness of financial institutions in Europe: A network approach across quantiles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    9. Guidi, Francesco & Savva, Christos S. & Ugur, Mehmet, 2016. "Dynamic co-movements and diversification benefits: The case of the Greater China region, the UK and the US equity markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 59-78.
    10. Jansen, Maarten & Swinkels, Laurens & Zhou, Weili, 2021. "Anomalies in the China A-share market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Lyócsa, Štefan & Výrost, Tomáš & Plíhal, Tomáš, 2021. "A tale of tails : New evidence on the growth-return nexus," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    12. Baumöhl, Eduard & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2014. "Volatility and dynamic conditional correlations of worldwide emerging and frontier markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 175-183.
    13. Cho, Dooyeon & Han, Heejoon, 2021. "The tail behavior of safe haven currencies: A cross-quantilogram analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Baumöhl, Eduard & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2019. "Quantile coherency networks of international stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-129.
    15. Shuangqi Li & Qi‐an Chen, 2021. "Do the Shanghai–Hong Kong & Shenzhen–Hong Kong Stock Connect programs enhance co‐movement between the Mainland Chinese, Hong Kong, and U.S. stock markets?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 2871-2890, April.
    16. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hernandez, Jose Areola & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Zakaria, Muhammad, 2018. "A global network topology of stock markets: Transmitters and receivers of spillover effects," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 2136-2153.
    17. Jozef Baruník & Tobias Kley, 2019. "Quantile coherency: A general measure for dependence between cyclical economic variables," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 22(2), pages 131-152.
    18. Qian, Biyu & Wang, Gang-Jin & Feng, Yusen & Xie, Chi, 2022. "Partial cross-quantilogram networks: Measuring quantile connectedness of financial institutions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    19. Cincinelli, Peter & Pellini, Elisabetta & Urga, Giovanni, 2022. "Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A panel Granger causality analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Xiaoquan Wang & Xinyue Wang & Zheng Zhong & Junnan Yao, 2021. "The impact of US–China trade war on Chinese firms: Evidence from stock market reactions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(7), pages 579-583, April.
    21. Han, Yang & Zhang, Haotian & Zhao, Yong, 2021. "Structural evolution of real estate industry in China: 2002-2017," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 45-56.
    22. Haoyuan Ding & Guoyong Liang & Tong Qi & Jiezhou Ying, 2020. "Tail causalities between monetary supply and real estate prices in China," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 82-95, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Guowen & Jing, Zhongbo & Li, Jingyu & Feng, Yuyao, 2023. "Drivers of risk correlation among financial institutions: A study based on a textual risk disclosure perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Extreme spillovers across Asian-Pacific currencies: A quantile-based analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Maghyereh, Aktham & Abdoh, Hussein, 2020. "Tail dependence between Bitcoin and financial assets: Evidence from a quantile cross-spectral approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    3. Huang, Jionghao & Li, Ziruo & Xia, Xiaohua, 2021. "Network diffusion of international oil volatility risk in China's stock market: Quantile interconnectedness modelling and shock decomposition analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1-39.
    4. Deev, Oleg & Lyócsa, Štefan, 2020. "Connectedness of financial institutions in Europe: A network approach across quantiles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 550(C).
    5. Qian, Biyu & Wang, Gang-Jin & Feng, Yusen & Xie, Chi, 2022. "Partial cross-quantilogram networks: Measuring quantile connectedness of financial institutions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    6. Jiang, Yonghong & Lie, Jiayi & Wang, Jieru & Mu, Jinqi, 2021. "Revisiting the roles of cryptocurrencies in stock markets: A quantile coherency perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 21-34.
    7. Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Elie Bouri & Ladislav Kristoufek & Tareq Saeed, 2021. "Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on the US equity sectors: Evidence from quantile return spillovers," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-23, December.
    8. Kumar, Satish & Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2021. "Does geopolitical risk improve the directional predictability from oil to stock returns? Evidence from oil-exporting and oil-importing countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Baumöhl, Eduard & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2019. "Quantile coherency networks of international stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-129.
    10. Iulia Lupu & Gheorghe Hurduzeu & Radu Lupu, 2022. "How Is the ESG Reflected in European Financial Stability?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-14, August.
    11. Gu, Xin & Zhang, Weiqiang & Cheng, Sang, 2021. "How do investors in Chinese stock market react to external uncertainty? An event study to the Sino-US disputes," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    12. Khalfaoui, Rabeh & Baumöhl, Eduard & Sarwar, Suleman & Výrost, Tomáš, 2021. "Connectedness between energy and nonenergy commodity markets: Evidence from quantile coherency networks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    13. Baur, Dirk G. & Hoang, Lai T., 2021. "A crypto safe haven against Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    14. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Pham, Linh & Senthilkumar, Arunachalam & Karim, Sitara, 2022. "Oil shocks and BRIC markets: Evidence from extreme quantile approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    15. Mahdi Ghaemi Asl & Oluwasegun B. Adekoya & Muhammad Mahdi Rashidi, 2023. "Quantiles dependence and dynamic connectedness between distributed ledger technology and sectoral stocks: enhancing the supply chain and investment decisions with digital platforms," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 327(1), pages 435-464, August.
    16. Lyócsa, Štefan & Baumöhl, Eduard, 2015. "Similarity of emerging market returns under changing market conditions: Markets in the ASEAN-4, Latin America, Middle East, and BRICs," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 253-268.
    17. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Qureshi, Fiza & Arif, Muhammad & Balli, Faruk, 2021. "Asymmetric relationship between gold and Islamic stocks in bearish, normal and bullish market conditions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    18. Shahzad, Umer & Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Tedeschi, Marco, 2023. "Is there any market state-dependent contribution from Blockchain-enabled solutions to ESG investments? Evidence from conventional and Islamic ESG stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 139-154.
    19. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Yousaf, Imran & Karim, Sitara & Yarovaya, Larisa & Ali, Shoaib, 2023. "Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    20. Sohag, Kazi & Sokolova, Yulia & Vilamová, Šárka & Blueschke, Dmitri, 2023. "Volatility transmission from critical minerals prices to green investments," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:49:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322003762. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.