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Cryptocurrency returns under empirical asset pricing

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  • Dunbar, Kwamie
  • Owusu-Amoako, Johnson

Abstract

This study examines the predictability of cryptocurrency returns based on investors' risk premia. Prior studies that have examined the predictability of cryptocurrencies using various economic risk factors have reported mixed results. Our out-of-sample evidence identifies the existence of a significant return predictability of cryptocurrencies based on the cryptocurrency market risk premium. Consistent with capital asset pricing theory (CAPM), our results show that investors often require higher positive returns before taking on any additional risks, particularly in terms of riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. Tests involving the CAPM model demonstrates that the three largest cryptocurrencies have significant exposures to the proposed market factor with insignificant intercepts, demonstrating that the market factor explains average cryptocurrency returns very well.

Suggested Citation

  • Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2022. "Cryptocurrency returns under empirical asset pricing," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:82:y:2022:i:c:s1057521922001776
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102216
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    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Irfan & Mubeen Abdur Rehman & Sarah Nawazish & Yu Hao, 2023. "Performance Analysis of Gold- and Fiat-Backed Cryptocurrencies: Risk-Based Choice for a Portfolio," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-15, February.
    2. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Predictability of crypto returns: The impact of trading behavior," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    3. Zhang, Zehua & Zhao, Ran, 2023. "Good volatility, bad volatility, and the cross section of cryptocurrency returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Dunbar, Kwamie & Owusu-Amoako, Johnson, 2023. "Role of hedging on crypto returns predictability: A new habit-based explanation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cryptocurrency; CAPM; Crypto market risk premium; Empirical asset pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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