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Price volatility in commodity markets with restricted participation

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  • Knaut, Andreas
  • Paschmann, Martin

Abstract

In commodity markets, price volatility may rise significantly if the product granularity increases. To gain insights into the underlying drivers, we analyze price volatility based on the example of German electricity markets. We develop a theoretical model to reproduce the price formation in the day-ahead and intraday auction which are sequential short-term electricity markets with 60-minute and 15-minute products. As cross-border trade is allowed in the day-ahead but not in the intraday auction, the model accounts for the impact of restricted market participation. The theoretical model is then transferred into an empirical analysis to first validate the modeling approach and second to comparatively assess the impact of increasing product granularity and restricted market participation. The empirical results indicate that the disproportional rise in quarter-hourly price volatility is mainly triggered by limited market participation and not only by the high volatility of renewable supply and demand. Since restricted market participation refers to a lack of market coupling, we derive a proxy for efficiency losses ranging from EUR 55 million to EUR 108 million that may be reduced if markets are coupled.

Suggested Citation

  • Knaut, Andreas & Paschmann, Martin, 2019. "Price volatility in commodity markets with restricted participation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 37-51.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:81:y:2019:i:c:p:37-51
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2019.03.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Rintamäki, Tuomas & Siddiqui, Afzal S. & Salo, Ahti, 2020. "Strategic offering of a flexible producer in day-ahead and intraday power markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(3), pages 1136-1153.
    3. Bonaldo, Cinzia & Caporin, Massimiliano & Fontini, Fulvio, 2022. "The relationship between day-ahead and future prices in electricity markets: An empirical analysis on Italy, France, Germany, and Switzerland," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    4. Marijanovic, Zorica & Theile, Philipp & Czock, Berit Hanna, 2022. "Value of short-term heating system flexibility – A case study for residential heat pumps on the German intraday market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 249(C).
    5. Daglish, Toby & de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza & Owen, Sally & Romano, Teresa, 2021. "Pricing effects of the electricity market reform in Brazil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    6. Jemma J. Makrygiorgou & Christos-Spyridon Karavas & Christos Dikaiakos & Ioannis P. Moraitis, 2023. "The Electricity Market in Greece: Current Status, Identified Challenges, and Arranged Reforms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-40, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity markets; Price volatility; Product granularity; Electricity market; Renewable market integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D47 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Market Design
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities
    • Q21 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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