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Unraveling the structural sources of oil production and their impact on CO2 emissions

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  • Herwartz, Helmut
  • Theilen, Bernd
  • Wang, Shu

Abstract

In this study, we examine the structural short- and long-run effects of oil supply and demand shocks on the production of crude oil. Among these, oil supply shocks are the major determinant of oil production. Furthermore, we adopt local projections to elicit that oil supply and aggregate demand shocks are significant drivers of CO2 emissions, whereas oil-specific demand shocks have only limited impact on overall emissions in the short-, mid-, and long-term. These findings underscore the limitations of current demand-side policies within a selected group of countries, emphasizing the necessity for global support and binding commitments to effectively reduce emissions from oil production and meet the climate targets set by the Paris Agreement in 2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Herwartz, Helmut & Theilen, Bernd & Wang, Shu, 2024. "Unraveling the structural sources of oil production and their impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:132:y:2024:i:c:s0140988324001968
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.107488
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fossil fuels; Oil demand and supply shocks; CO2 emissions; Climate change; Energy policy; Global crude oil market; Oil demand and supply elasticity; Structural VAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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