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Flexible lease contracts in the fleet replacement problem with alternative fuel vehicles: A real-options approach

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  • Ansaripoor, Amir H.
  • Oliveira, Fernando S.

Abstract

We study the use of flexible lease contacts in the fleet portfolio management problem of a firm that aims to minimize its cost and risk (Recursive Expected Conditional Value at Risk), simultaneously, in a stochastic multi-period setting by deciding which technologies to use in its fleet. We propose a model using real options (return and swap) to model contract flexibility and to account for different uncertainties (CO2 prices, fuel prices, mileage covered by a vehicle, fuel consumption, and technological). We analyse how fuel price uncertainty and technological progress influence the value of the options. We validate the results using a real-world case study conducted in the UK.

Suggested Citation

  • Ansaripoor, Amir H. & Oliveira, Fernando S., 2018. "Flexible lease contracts in the fleet replacement problem with alternative fuel vehicles: A real-options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(1), pages 316-327.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:266:y:2018:i:1:p:316-327
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.09.010
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    Cited by:

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    3. Paolo Falbo & Giorgio Ferrari & Giorgio Rizzini & Maren Diane Schmeck, 2021. "Optimal switch from a fossil-fueled to an electric vehicle," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 1147-1178, December.
    4. Paolo Falbo & Giorgio Ferrari & Giorgio Rizzini & Maren Diane Schmeck, 2020. "Optimal switch from a fossil-fueled to an electric vehicle," Papers 2012.09493, arXiv.org.
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    6. Chuan-Chuan Ko & Chien-Yu Liu & Zan-Yu Chen & Jing Zhou, 2019. "Sustainable Development Economic Strategy Model for Reducing Carbon Emission by Using Real Options Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(19), pages 1-14, October.
    7. Raquel J. Fonseca & Luísa Cunha, 2023. "Real options in health insurance decisions: the Portuguese ADSE system," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(6), pages 1-17, June.
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    9. Shields, Brett A. & Seif, Javad & Yu, Andrew Junfang, 2019. "Parallel machine replacement with shipping decisions," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C), pages 62-71.
    10. Winkelmann, Jonas & Spinler, Stefan & Neukirchen, Thomas, 2024. "Green transport fleet renewal using approximate dynamic programming: A case study in German heavy-duty road transportation," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

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