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Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Halicioglu, Ferda

Abstract

Previous studies that have assessed the short-run and the long-run effects of exchange rate changes on Turkey’s trade balance with its major partners relied upon a linear adjustment process that could not find much support for favorable effects of exchange rate changes. In this paper, once we separate real appreciations from real depreciations via the partial sum concept and introduce nonlinearity into the estimation and testing procedure, we show that the effects of exchange rate changes are asymmetric. More precisely, while lira appreciation does not have any significant effects on Turkey’s bilateral trade balances, lira depreciation has significantly favorable effects on Turkey’s trade balance with its European partners (France, Germany, Italy, Portugal, and Great Britain).

Suggested Citation

  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Halicioglu, Ferda, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on Turkish bilateral trade balances," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 279-296.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:41:y:2017:i:2:p:279-296
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2016.07.001
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    Cited by:

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    3. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
    4. Makrem Ben Doudou & Ridha Nouira & Sami Saafi & Aram Belhadj, 2022. "Do exchange rate changes have threshold effects on the trade balance? Evidence from Tunisia," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 511-537, February.
    5. Bilgin, Cevat, 2020. "Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on Exports: A Sectoral Nonlinear Cointegration Analysis for Turkey," MPRA Paper 101316, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Aftab, Muhammad, 2022. "Who Has Benefitted from Malaysia-Pakistan Free Trade Agreement? An Industry Level Analysis," Journal of Economic Development, The Economic Research Institute, Chung-Ang University, vol. 47(2), pages 20-38, June.
    7. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2021. "Estimating a bilateral J‐curve between the UK and the Euro area: An asymmetric analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 89(2), pages 223-237, March.
    8. Munir Ahmad & Gul Jabeen & Syed Ahsan Ali Shah & Abdul Rehman & Fayyaz Ahmad & Cem Işik, 2022. "Assessing long- and short-run dynamic interplay among balance of trade, aggregate economic output, real exchange rate, and CO2 emissions in Pakistan," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 7283-7323, May.
    9. Emmanuel Uche & Sunday Ikedinobi Nwamiri, 2022. "Dynamic Effects of Exchange Rate Movements on Productivity Levels: New Evidence From Nigeria Based on NARDL," Journal of Development Policy and Practice, , vol. 7(1), pages 96-111, January.
    10. Brun,Martin & Gambetta,Juan Pedro & Varela,Gonzalo J., 2020. "Slow Rockets and Fast Feathers or the Link between Exchange Rates and Exports : A Case Study for Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9353, The World Bank.
    11. Sharma, Chandan & Pal, Debdatta, 2018. "Exchange rate volatility and India's cross-border trade: A pooled mean group and nonlinear cointegration approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 230-246.
    12. Yixiao Jiang & George K. Zestos & Zachary Timmerman, 2020. "A Vector Error Correction Model for Japanese Real Exports," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 48(3), pages 297-311, September.
    13. Md. Golam Kibria & Ismay Jahan & Jannatul Mawa, 2021. "Asymmetric effect of financial development and energy consumption on environmental degradation in South Asia? New evidence from non-linear ARDL analysis," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(4), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Real Exchange Rate and the Dynamics of Services Trade Balance in the UK: A Linear and Non-linear ARDL Analysis," MPRA Paper 106703, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Nathan Audu & Titus Obiezue, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Trade in Services Nexus in Nigeria: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 8(1), pages 79-96, January.
    16. Sharaf, Mesbah Fathy & Shahen, Abdelhalem Mahmoud, 2023. "Asymmetric impact of real effective exchange rate changes on domestic output revisited: evidence from Egypt," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 2-15.
    17. Javed Iqbal & Sitara Jabeen & Misbah Nosheen & Mark Wohar, 2024. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on Pakistan–Japan Commodity Trade: Evidence from Non-linear ARDL Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(3), pages 657-732, September.
    18. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Is There a J-Curve Effect in the Services Trade in Canada? A Panel Data Analysis," MPRA Paper 106704, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Linear ARDL; Nonlinear ARDL; Asymmetry; Turkey; Bilateral trade balance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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