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Estimation and inference of change points in high-dimensional factor models

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  • Bai, Jushan
  • Han, Xu
  • Shi, Yutang

Abstract

In this paper, we consider the estimation of break points in high-dimensional factor models where the unobserved factors are estimated by principal component analysis (PCA). The factor loading matrix is assumed to have a structural break at an unknown time. We establish the conditions under which the least squares (LS) estimator is consistent for the break date. Our consistency result holds for both large and small breaks. We also find the LS estimator’s asymptotic distribution. Simulation results confirm that the break date can be accurately estimated by the LS even if the magnitudes of breaks are small. In two empirical applications, we implement the method to estimate break points in the U.S. stock market and U.S. macroeconomy, respectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Bai, Jushan & Han, Xu & Shi, Yutang, 2020. "Estimation and inference of change points in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 66-100.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:219:y:2020:i:1:p:66-100
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.08.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Duan, Jiangtao & Bai, Jushan & Han, Xu, 2023. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of break point in high-dimensional factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 209-236.
    2. Wang, Lu & Zhou, Ruichao & Wu, Jianhong, 2021. "Determining the number of breaks in large dimensional factor models with structural changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    3. Matteo Barigozzi & Marc Hallin, 2023. "Dynamic Factor Models: a Genealogy," Papers 2310.17278, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2024.
    4. Zhou, Ruichao & Wu, Jianhong, 2023. "Determining the number of change-points in high-dimensional factor models by cross-validation with matrix completion," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    5. Wang, Lu & Wu, Jianhong, 2022. "Estimation of high-dimensional factor models with multiple structural changes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    6. Giovanni Urga & Fa Wang, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," Papers 2205.12126, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2023.
    7. Bai, Jushan & Duan, Jiangtao & Han, Xu, 2024. "The likelihood ratio test for structural changes in factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 238(2).
    8. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2022. "Estimation and Inference for High Dimensional Factor Model with Regime Switching," MPRA Paper 117012, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2023.
    9. Wu, Jianhong, 2021. "Estimation of high dimensional factor model with multiple threshold-type regime shifts," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    10. Cui, Junfeng & Wang, Guanghui & Zou, Changliang & Wang, Zhaojun, 2023. "Change-point testing for parallel data sets with FDR control," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    11. Urga, Giovanni & Wang, Fa, 2024. "Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
    12. Ma, Chenchen & Tu, Yundong, 2023. "Group fused Lasso for large factor models with multiple structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 132-154.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Structural changes; High-dimensional factor models; Break point inference;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

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