IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v213y2019i2p297-320.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Simulated likelihood estimators for discretely observed jump–diffusions

Author

Listed:
  • Giesecke, K.
  • Schwenkler, G.

Abstract

This paper develops an unbiased Monte Carlo approximation to the transition density of a jump–diffusion process with state-dependent drift, volatility, jump intensity, and jump magnitude. The approximation is used to construct a likelihood estimator of the parameters of a jump–diffusion observed at fixed time intervals that need not be short. The estimator is asymptotically unbiased for any sample size. It has the same large-sample asymptotic properties as the true but uncomputable likelihood estimator. Numerical results illustrate its properties.

Suggested Citation

  • Giesecke, K. & Schwenkler, G., 2019. "Simulated likelihood estimators for discretely observed jump–diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 213(2), pages 297-320.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:213:y:2019:i:2:p:297-320
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.01.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304407619301460
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.01.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    2. S. G. Kou, 2002. "A Jump-Diffusion Model for Option Pricing," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(8), pages 1086-1101, August.
    3. Lo, Andrew W., 1988. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Generalized Itô Processes with Discretely Sampled Data," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 231-247, August.
    4. Kristensen, Dennis & Shin, Yongseok, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic models with nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 76-94.
    5. Casella, Bruno & Roberts, Gareth O., 2011. "Exact Simulation of Jump-Diffusion Processes with Monte Carlo Applications," MPRA Paper 95217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Detemple, Jerome & Garcia, Rene & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2006. "Asymptotic properties of Monte Carlo estimators of diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(1), pages 1-68, September.
    7. Chang, Jinyuan & Chen, Songxi, 2011. "On the Approximate Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Diffusion Processes," MPRA Paper 46279, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Darrell Duffie & Jun Pan & Kenneth Singleton, 2000. "Transform Analysis and Asset Pricing for Affine Jump-Diffusions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1343-1376, November.
    9. Filipović, Damir & Mayerhofer, Eberhard & Schneider, Paul, 2013. "Density approximations for multivariate affine jump-diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 93-111.
    10. Christophe Andrieu & Arnaud Doucet & Roman Holenstein, 2010. "Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo methods," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(3), pages 269-342, June.
    11. Kay Giesecke & Dmitry Smelov, 2013. "Exact Sampling of Jump Diffusions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 894-907, August.
    12. Carrasco, Marine & Chernov, Mikhail & Florens, Jean-Pierre & Ghysels, Eric, 2007. "Efficient estimation of general dynamic models with a continuum of moment conditions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 529-573, October.
    13. Peter W. Glynn & Ward Whitt, 1992. "The Asymptotic Efficiency of Simulation Estimators," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 40(3), pages 505-520, June.
    14. Giorgos Sermaidis & Omiros Papaspiliopoulos & Gareth O. Roberts & Alexandros Beskos & Paul Fearnhead, 2013. "Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Exact Inference for Diffusions," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 40(2), pages 294-321, June.
    15. Chen, Songxi & Peng, Liang & Yu, Cindy, 2013. "Parameter Estimation and Model Testing for Markov Processes via Conditional Characteristic Functions," MPRA Paper 46273, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ai[dieresis]t-Sahalia, Yacine & Yu, Jialin, 2006. "Saddlepoint approximations for continuous-time Markov processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 507-551, October.
    17. Yu, Jialin, 2007. "Closed-form likelihood approximation and estimation of jump-diffusions with an application to the realignment risk of the Chinese Yuan," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1245-1280, December.
    18. P. A. W Lewis & G. S. Shedler, 1979. "Simulation of nonhomogeneous poisson processes by thinning," Naval Research Logistics Quarterly, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 26(3), pages 403-413, September.
    19. Nan Chen & Zhengyu Huang, 2013. "Localization and Exact Simulation of Brownian Motion-Driven Stochastic Differential Equations," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 38(3), pages 591-616, August.
    20. Bruno Casella & Gareth O. Roberts, 2011. "Exact Simulation of Jump-Diffusion Processes with Monte Carlo Applications," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 449-473, September.
    21. George J. Jiang & John L. Knight, 2010. "ECF estimation of Markov models where the transition density is unknown," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 13(2), pages 245-270, July.
    22. Li, Chenxu & Chen, Dachuan, 2016. "Estimating jump–diffusions using closed-form likelihood expansions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 51-70.
    23. Flávio B. Gonçalves & Gareth O. Roberts, 2014. "Exact Simulation Problems for Jump-Diffusions," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 907-930, December.
    24. Singleton, Kenneth J., 2001. "Estimation of affine asset pricing models using the empirical characteristic function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 111-141, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guay, François & Schwenkler, Gustavo, 2021. "Efficient estimation and filtering for multivariate jump–diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 251-275.
    2. Xiangdong Liu & Jiahui Wu & Xianglong Li, 2023. "Research on Financial Default Model with Stochastic Intensity Using Filtered Likelihood Method," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guay, François & Schwenkler, Gustavo, 2021. "Efficient estimation and filtering for multivariate jump–diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 223(1), pages 251-275.
    2. Li, Chenxu & Chen, Dachuan, 2016. "Estimating jump–diffusions using closed-form likelihood expansions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 51-70.
    3. Yang, Nian & Chen, Nan & Wan, Xiangwei, 2019. "A new delta expansion for multivariate diffusions via the Itô-Taylor expansion," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 256-288.
    4. Herrmann, Samuel & Massin, Nicolas, 2023. "Exact simulation of the first passage time through a given level of jump diffusions," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 203(C), pages 553-576.
    5. H. Peter Boswijk & Roger J. A. Laeven & Evgenii Vladimirov, 2022. "Estimating Option Pricing Models Using a Characteristic Function-Based Linear State Space Representation," Papers 2210.06217, arXiv.org.
    6. Recchioni, Maria Cristina & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2017. "From bond yield to macroeconomic instability: A parsimonious affine model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(3), pages 1116-1135.
    7. Todorov, Viktor & Tauchen, George & Grynkiv, Iaryna, 2011. "Realized Laplace transforms for estimation of jump diffusive volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(2), pages 367-381, October.
    8. Kay Giesecke & Dmitry Smelov, 2013. "Exact Sampling of Jump Diffusions," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 61(4), pages 894-907, August.
    9. Kristensen, Dennis & Shin, Yongseok, 2012. "Estimation of dynamic models with nonparametric simulated maximum likelihood," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 167(1), pages 76-94.
    10. Kozarski, R., 2013. "Pricing and hedging in the VIX derivative market," Other publications TiSEM 221fefe0-241e-4914-b6bd-c, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    11. Torben G. Andersen & Luca Benzoni & Jesper Lund, 2002. "An Empirical Investigation of Continuous‐Time Equity Return Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1239-1284, June.
    12. repec:wyi:journl:002108 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Wan, Xiangwei & Yang, Nian, 2021. "Hermite expansion of transition densities and European option prices for multivariate diffusions with jumps," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    14. Jakobsen, Nina Munkholt & Sørensen, Michael, 2019. "Estimating functions for jump–diffusions," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 129(9), pages 3282-3318.
    15. Moreno, Manuel & Serrano, Pedro & Stute, Winfried, 2011. "Statistical properties and economic implications of jump-diffusion processes with shot-noise effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 656-664, November.
    16. Dennis Kristensen & Young Jun Lee & Antonio Mele, 2023. "Closed-form approximations of moments and densities of continuous-time Markov models," Papers 2308.09009, arXiv.org.
    17. Hermann, Simone & Ickstadt, Katja & Müller, Christine H., 2018. "Bayesian prediction for a jump diffusion process – With application to crack growth in fatigue experiments," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 83-96.
    18. Filipović, Damir & Mayerhofer, Eberhard & Schneider, Paul, 2013. "Density approximations for multivariate affine jump-diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 93-111.
    19. Dotsis, George & Psychoyios, Dimitris & Skiadopoulos, George, 2007. "An empirical comparison of continuous-time models of implied volatility indices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(12), pages 3584-3603, December.
    20. Zongwu Cai & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Some Recent Developments in Nonparametric Finance," Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
    21. Wanmo Kang & Jong Mun Lee, 2019. "Unbiased Sensitivity Estimation of One-Dimensional Diffusion Processes," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 44(1), pages 334-353, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unbiased density estimator; Jump–diffusions; Likelihood inference; Asymptotic efficiency; Computational efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:213:y:2019:i:2:p:297-320. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.