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Is there a stepping stone effect in drug use? Separating state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity within and between illicit drugs

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  • Deza, Monica

Abstract

Empirically, teenagers who use soft drugs are more likely to use hard drugs in the future. This pattern can be explained by a causal effect (i.e., state dependence between drugs or stepping-stone effects) or by unobserved characteristics that make people more likely to use both soft and hard drugs (i.e., correlated unobserved heterogeneity). I estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of alcohol, marijuana and hard drug use over multiple years, and separately identify the contributions of state dependence (within and between drugs) and unobserved heterogeneity. I find statistically significant “stepping-stone” effects from softer to harder drugs, and conclude that alcohol, marijuana and hard drugs are complements in utility.

Suggested Citation

  • Deza, Monica, 2015. "Is there a stepping stone effect in drug use? Separating state dependence from unobserved heterogeneity within and between illicit drugs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 184(1), pages 193-207.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:184:y:2015:i:1:p:193-207
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.08.005
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    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Dano, 2023. "Transition Probabilities and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Fixed Effects Logit Models," Papers 2303.00083, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    2. Michelle Sovinsky & Liana Jacobi & Alessandra Allocca & Tao Sun, 2024. "More than Joints: Multi-Substance Use, Choice Limitations, and Policy Implications," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2024_501, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    3. Michelle Sovinsky & Liana Jacobi & Alessandra Allocca & Tao Sun, 2023. "More than Joints: Multi-Substance Use, Choice Limitations, and Policy Implications," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 487, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    4. Yu-Wei Luke Chu, 2015. "Do Medical Marijuana Laws Increase Hard-Drug Use?," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 481-517.
    5. Li Donni, Paolo, 2019. "The unobserved pattern of material hardship and health among older Americans," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 31-42.
    6. Raymond J. March & Veeshan Rayamajhee & Glenn L. Furton, 2022. "Cloudy with a chance of munchies: Assessing the impact of recreational marijuana legalization on obesity," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(12), pages 2609-2629, December.
    7. Hansen, Jörgen & Davalloo, Golnaz, 2023. "Persistent Marijuana Use: Evidence from the NLSY," IZA Discussion Papers 16446, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    State dependence; Stepping-stone; Illicit drugs;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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