Reinforced urn processes for credit risk models
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2014.08.003
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000.
"Stability of rating transitions,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
- Pamela Nickell & William Perraudin & Simone Varotto, 2001. "Stability of ratings transitions," Bank of England working papers 133, Bank of England.
- J. E. Griffin, 2011. "Inference in Infinite Superpositions of Non-Gaussian Ornstein--Uhlenbeck Processes Using Bayesian Nonparametic Methods," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 519-549, Summer.
- Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2010.
"Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 306-316, August.
- Mark J Jensen & John M Maheu, 2008. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," Working Papers tecipa-314, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2009. "Bayesian Semiparametric Stochastic Volatility Modeling," Working Paper series 23_09, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2008. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Scott, James, 1981. "The probability of bankruptcy: A comparison of empirical predictions and theoretical models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-344, September.
- Maria Kalli & Stephen G. Walker & Paul Damien, 2013. "Modeling the Conditional Distribution of Daily Stock Index Returns: An Alternative Bayesian Semiparametric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 371-383, October.
- Mezzetti, Maura & Muliere, Pietro & Bulla, Paolo, 2007. "An application of reinforced urn processes to determining maximum tolerated dose," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(7), pages 740-747, April.
- Keisuke Hirano, 2002. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference in Autoregressive Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 781-799, March.
- Muliere, Pietro & Secchi, Piercesare & G. Walker, Stephen, 2003. "Reinforced random processes in continuous time," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 117-130, March.
- Merton, Robert C, 1974.
"On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
- Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2014.
"Beta-product dependent Pitman–Yor processes for Bayesian inference,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 49-72.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen, 2013. "Beta-Product Dependent Pitman-Yor Processes for Bayesian Inference," Working Papers 2013:13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Altman, Edward I., 1998. "The importance and subtlety of credit rating migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(10-11), pages 1231-1247, October.
- Nicholas M. Kiefer, 2011.
"Default estimation, correlated defaults, and expert information,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 173-192, March.
- Kiefer, Nicholas M., 2008. "Default Estimation, Correlated Defaults, and Expert Information," Working Papers 08-02, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- Epifani, I. & Fortini, S. & Ladelli, L., 2002. "A characterization for mixtures of semi-Markov processes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(4), pages 445-457, December.
- Asquith, Paul & Mullins, David W, Jr & Wolff, Eric D, 1989. " Original Issue High Yield Bonds: Aging Analyses of Defaults, Exchanges, and Calls," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 923-952, September.
- Olkin, Ingram & Liu, Ruixue, 2003. "A bivariate beta distribution," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 62(4), pages 407-412, May.
- Altman, Edward I, 1989. " Measuring Corporate Bond Mortality and Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(4), pages 909-922, September.
- Wilcox, Jw, 1973. "Prediction Of Business Failure Using Accounting Data," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11, pages 163-179.
- Taddy, Matthew A., 2010. "Autoregressive Mixture Models for Dynamic Spatial Poisson Processes: Application to Tracking Intensity of Violent Crime," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(492), pages 1403-1417.
- Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002.
"Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
- Anil Bangia & Francis X. Diebold & Til Schuermann, 2000. "Ratings Migration and the Business Cycle, With Application to Credit Portfolio Stress Testing," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-26, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Lorenzo Trippa & Peter Müller & Wesley Johnson, 2011. "The multivariate beta process and an extension of the Polya tree model," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 17-34.
- Pasquale Cirillo & Jürg Hüsler & Pietro Muliere, 2013. "Alarm Systems and Catastrophes from a Diverse Point of View," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 821-839, December.
- Cirillo, Pasquale & Hüsler, Jürg, 2011. "Extreme shock models: An alternative perspective," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 25-30, January.
- Fortini, Sandra & Ladelli, Lucia & Petris, Giovanni & Regazzini, Eugenio, 0. "On mixtures of distributions of Markov chains," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 100(1-2), pages 147-165, July.
- Ed McKenzie, 1985. "An Autoregressive Process for Beta Random Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 31(8), pages 988-997, August.
- Muliere, P. & Secchi, P. & Walker, S. G., 2000. "Urn schemes and reinforced random walks," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 59-78, July.
- Pasquale Cirillo & Jürg Hüsler & Pietro Muliere, 2010. "A Nonparametric Urn-Based Approach To Interacting Failing Systems With An Application To Credit Risk Modeling," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(08), pages 1223-1240.
- Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2011. "Stick-breaking autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 383-396, June.
- Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
- Altman, Edward I. & Haldeman, Robert G. & Narayanan, P., 1977. "ZETATM analysis A new model to identify bankruptcy risk of corporations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 29-54, June.
- Emanuele Amerio & Pietro Muliere & Piercesare Secchi, 2004. "Reinforced Urn Processes For Modeling Credit Default Distributions," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(04), pages 407-423.
- Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Cheng, Dan & Cirillo, Pasquale, 2018. "A reinforced urn process modeling of recovery rates and recovery times," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-17.
- Dan Cheng & Pasquale Cirillo, 2019. "An Urn-Based Nonparametric Modeling of the Dependence between PD and LGD with an Application to Mortgages," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-21, July.
- Souto Arias, Luis A. & Cirillo, Pasquale, 2021. "Joint and survivor annuity valuation with a bivariate reinforced urn process," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 174-189.
- Tarun Chitra & Alex Evans, 2020. "Why Stake When You Can Borrow?," Papers 2006.11156, arXiv.org.
- Andrea Arfè & Stefano Peluso & Pietro Muliere, 2021. "The semi-Markov beta-Stacy process: a Bayesian non-parametric prior for semi-Markov processes," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 1-15, April.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Bassetti, Federico & Casarin, Roberto & Leisen, Fabrizio, 2014.
"Beta-product dependent Pitman–Yor processes for Bayesian inference,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 49-72.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Fabrizio Leisen, 2013. "Beta-Product Dependent Pitman-Yor Processes for Bayesian Inference," Working Papers 2013:13, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse seemingly unrelated regression model (SUR)," Working Papers 2016:20, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Altman, Edward I. & Saunders, Anthony, 1997.
"Credit risk measurement: Developments over the last 20 years,"
Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1721-1742, December.
- Edward I. Altman & Anthony Saunders, 1996. "Credit Risk Measurement: Developments over the Last 20 Years," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 96-3, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Eriksson, Kent & Jonsson, Sara & Lindbergh, Jessica & Lindstrand, Angelika, 2014. "Modeling firm specific internationalization risk: An application to banks’ risk assessment in lending to firms that do international business," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 1074-1085.
- Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Rossini, Luca, 2019.
"Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 97-115.
- Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Luca Rossini, 2016. "Bayesian nonparametric sparse VAR models," Papers 1608.02740, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018.
"Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 675-685, April.
- Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Bayesian nonparametric calibration and combination of predictive distributions," Working Paper 2015/03, Norges Bank.
- Roberto Casarin & Federico Bassetti & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2015. "Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions," Working Papers 2015:04, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Edward I. Altman, 1996.
"Corporate Bond and Commercial Loan Portfolio Analysis,"
New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires
96-6, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
- Edward Altman, 1996. "Corporate Bond and Commercial Loan Portfolio Analysis," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 96-41, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Brian BARNARD, 2017. "Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Decomposing Rating Migration Matrices from Market Data via Default Probability Term Structures," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5(1), pages 49-72.
- Brian BARNARD, 2017. "Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Decomposing Rating Migration Matrices from Market Data via Default Probability Term Structures," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 5, pages 49-72.
- Pasquale Cirillo & Jürg Hüsler & Pietro Muliere, 2013. "Alarm Systems and Catastrophes from a Diverse Point of View," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 821-839, December.
- Michael Kalkbrener & Natalie Packham, 2024. "A Markov approach to credit rating migration conditional on economic states," Papers 2403.14868, arXiv.org.
- Brian BARNARD, 2018. "Rating Migration and Bond Valuation: Ahistorical Interest Rate and Default Probability Term Structures," Expert Journal of Finance, Sprint Investify, vol. 6(1), pages 16-30.
- Van Laere, Elisabeth & Baesens, Bart, 2010. "The development of a simple and intuitive rating system under Solvency II," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 500-510, June.
- Kadam, Ashay & Lenk, Peter, 2008. "Bayesian inference for issuer heterogeneity in credit ratings migration," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2267-2274, October.
- Pesaran, M. Hashem & Schuermann, Til & Treutler, Bjorn-Jakob & Weiner, Scott M., 2006.
"Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1211-1261, August.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & April, "undated". "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-13, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- Til Schuermann & Björn-Jakob Treutler & Scott M. Weiner & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 995, CESifo.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Schuermann, T. & Treutler, B-J. & Weiner, S.M., 2003. "Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0330, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Michael C. Munnix & Rudi Schafer & Thomas Guhr, 2011. "A Random Matrix Approach to Credit Risk," Papers 1102.3900, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2011.
- Correa, Arnildo & Marins, Jaqueline & Neves, Myrian & da Silva, Antonio Carlos, 2014.
"Credit Default and Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation of Brazilian Retail Loans,"
Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 68(3), September.
- Arnildo da Silva Correa & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Myrian Beatriz Eiras das Neves & Antonio Carlos Magalhães da Silva, 2011. "Credit Default and Business Cycles: an empirical investigation of Brazilian retail loans," Working Papers Series 260, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
- Arnildo Da Silva Correa & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins & Myrian Beatriz Eiras Das Neves & Antonio Carlos Magalhes Da Silva, 2014. "Credit Default And Business Cycles: Anempirical Investigation Of Brazilian Retail Loans," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 028, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
- Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004.
"Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
- Pesaran, M.H. & Weiner, S.M., 2001. "Modelling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0119, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2001. "Modelling regional interdependencies using a global error-correcting macroeconometric model," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B4-1, International Conferences on Panel Data.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Til Schuermann & Scott M. Weiner, 2002. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 01-38, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
- PESARAN M. Hashem & SCHUERMANN Til & WEINER Scott, 2010. "Modelling Regional Interdependencies using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," EcoMod2003 330700121, EcoMod.
- Gatfaoui Hayette, 2004.
"Idiosyncratic Risk, Systematic Risk and Stochastic Volatility: An Implementation of Merton’s Credit Risk Valuation,"
Finance
0404004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Hayette Gatfaoui, 2006. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Systematic Risk and Stochastic Volatility: An Implementation of Merton's Credit Risk Valuation," Post-Print hal-00589918, HAL.
- Hayette Gatfaoui, 2004. "Idiosyncratic Risk, Systematic Risk and Stochastic Volatility: An Implementation of Merton's Credit Risk Valuation," Research Paper Series 123, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- Jones, Stewart & Johnstone, David & Wilson, Roy, 2015. "An empirical evaluation of the performance of binary classifiers in the prediction of credit ratings changes," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 72-85.
More about this item
Keywords
Default rate estimation; Multivariate Beta distribution; Polya urn; Rating migration matrix estimation; Reinforced urn processes;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:184:y:2015:i:1:p:1-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.