IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v69y2024ipbs1062940823001602.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic robust portfolio selection under market distress

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Yifu
  • Olmo, Jose
  • Atwi, Majed

Abstract

This article proposes a dynamic robust portfolio selection model that is based on minimizing portfolio’s worst case scenarios using the Conditional Value at Risk as relevant risk measure. Our proposed empirical model for the dynamics of portfolio constituents has three main features: i) accommodates tail dependence between assets by means of a mixture of copula functions; ii) conditional heteroscedasticity and leverage effects are considered through the implementation of a GJR-GARCH model; and iii) extreme events are taken into account by considering parametric and semiparametric hybrid models for the marginal distribution of asset returns. We illustrate the performance of this portfolio before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using statistical measures such as the Sharpe ratio, cumulative returns, and volatility. The results show the outperformance of our WCVaR portfolio during the turmoil period against benchmark portfolios commonly used by practitioners. The method also exhibits good performance during calm periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Yifu & Olmo, Jose & Atwi, Majed, 2024. "Dynamic robust portfolio selection under market distress," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:69:y:2024:i:pb:s1062940823001602
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2023.102037
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940823001602
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2023.102037?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2004. "A well-conditioned estimator for large-dimensional covariance matrices," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 365-411, February.
    2. Gilbert W. Bassett, 2004. "Pessimistic Portfolio Allocation and Choquet Expected Utility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(4), pages 477-492.
    3. Campbell, Rachel & Huisman, Ronald & Koedijk, Kees, 2001. "Optimal portfolio selection in a Value-at-Risk framework," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1789-1804, September.
    4. Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2022. "The Power of (Non-)Linear Shrinking: A Review and Guide to Covariance Matrix Estimation [Design-Free Estimation of Variance Matrices]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 187-218.
    5. Fishburn, Peter C, 1977. "Mean-Risk Analysis with Risk Associated with Below-Target Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 116-126, March.
    6. Ali, Fahad & Jiang, Yuexiang & Sensoy, Ahmet, 2021. "Downside risk in Dow Jones Islamic equity indices: Precious metals and portfolio diversification before and after the COVID-19 bear market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    7. Victor DeMiguel & Lorenzo Garlappi & Raman Uppal, 2009. "Optimal Versus Naive Diversification: How Inefficient is the 1-N Portfolio Strategy?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(5), pages 1915-1953, May.
    8. Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2017. "Nonlinear Shrinkage of the Covariance Matrix for Portfolio Selection: Markowitz Meets Goldilocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(12), pages 4349-4388.
    9. Martin Hellmich & Stefan Kassberger, 2011. "Efficient and robust portfolio optimization in the multivariate Generalized Hyperbolic framework," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(10), pages 1503-1516.
    10. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Scheffer, Marcus, 2015. "Mixture pair-copula-constructions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 175-191.
    11. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1683, August.
    12. Raj, Alok & Mukherjee, Abheek Anjan & de Sousa Jabbour, Ana Beatriz Lopes & Srivastava, Samir K., 2022. "Supply chain management during and post-COVID-19 pandemic: Mitigation strategies and practical lessons learned," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1125-1139.
    13. McNeil, Alexander J. & Frey, Rudiger, 2000. "Estimation of tail-related risk measures for heteroscedastic financial time series: an extreme value approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 271-300, November.
    14. Garcia, René & Tsafack, Georges, 2011. "Dependence structure and extreme comovements in international equity and bond markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1954-1970, August.
    15. Robert F. Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2004. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 367-381, October.
    16. Nikoloulopoulos, Aristidis K. & Joe, Harry & Li, Haijun, 2012. "Vine copulas with asymmetric tail dependence and applications to financial return data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3659-3673.
    17. Sahamkhadam, Maziar & Stephan, Andreas & Östermark, Ralf, 2018. "Portfolio optimization based on GARCH-EVT-Copula forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 497-506.
    18. Basak, Suleyman & Shapiro, Alexander, 2001. "Value-at-Risk-Based Risk Management: Optimal Policies and Asset Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 371-405.
    19. Zakoian, Jean-Michel, 1994. "Threshold heteroskedastic models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 931-955, September.
    20. Glosten, Lawrence R & Jagannathan, Ravi & Runkle, David E, 1993. "On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(5), pages 1779-1801, December.
    21. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    23. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    24. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December.
    25. Yingwei Han & Ping Li & Jie Li & Sanmang Wu, 2020. "Robust Portfolio Selection Based on Copula Change Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 3635-3645, December.
    26. Gilbert W. Bassett Jr Bassett & Roger Koenker & Gregory Kordas, 2004. "Pessimistic portfolio allocation and Choquet expected utility," CeMMAP working papers 09/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    27. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    28. Su, Xiaoshan & Bai, Manying & Han, Yingwei, 2021. "Robust portfolio selection with regime switching and asymmetric dependence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    29. Laurent El Ghaoui & Maksim Oks & Francois Oustry, 2003. "Worst-Case Value-At-Risk and Robust Portfolio Optimization: A Conic Programming Approach," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(4), pages 543-556, August.
    30. Gian Piero Aielli, 2013. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: On Properties and Estimation," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 282-299, July.
    31. Topaloglou, Nikolas & Vladimirou, Hercules & Zenios, Stavros A., 2002. "CVaR models with selective hedging for international asset allocation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1535-1561, July.
    32. Philippe Artzner & Freddy Delbaen & Jean‐Marc Eber & David Heath, 1999. "Coherent Measures of Risk," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 203-228, July.
    33. Gregor Weiß, 2013. "Copula-GARCH versus dynamic conditional correlation: an empirical study on VaR and ES forecasting accuracy," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 179-202, August.
    34. Alok Raj & Abheek Anjan Mukherjee & Ana Beatriz Lopes de Sousa Jabbour & Samir K. Srivastava, 2022. "Supply chain management during and post-COVID-19 pandemic: Mitigation strategies and practical lessons learned," Post-Print hal-04275089, HAL.
    35. Han, Yingwei & Li, Ping & Xia, Yong, 2017. "Dynamic robust portfolio selection with copulas," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-200.
    36. Belhajjam, A. & Belbachir, M. & El Ouardirhi, S., 2017. "Robust multivairiate extreme value at risk allocation," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 1-11.
    37. Karmakar, Madhusudan & Paul, Samit, 2019. "Intraday portfolio risk management using VaR and CVaR:A CGARCH-EVT-Copula approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 699-709.
    38. Shushang Zhu & Masao Fukushima, 2009. "Worst-Case Conditional Value-at-Risk with Application to Robust Portfolio Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(5), pages 1155-1168, October.
    39. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    40. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1684, August.
    41. Ibragimov, Rustam & Walden, Johan, 2007. "The limits of diversification when losses may be large," Scholarly Articles 2624460, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    42. Rockafellar, R. Tyrrell & Uryasev, Stanislav, 2002. "Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1443-1471, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ruili Sun & Tiefeng Ma & Shuangzhe Liu & Milind Sathye, 2019. "Improved Covariance Matrix Estimation for Portfolio Risk Measurement: A Review," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-34, March.
    2. Weidong Lin & Jose Olmo & Abderrahim Taamouti, 2022. "Portfolio Selection Under Systemic Risk," Working Papers 202208, University of Liverpool, Department of Economics.
    3. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2013. "Financial Risk Measurement for Financial Risk Management," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1127-1220, Elsevier.
    4. Paolella, Marc S. & Polak, Paweł & Walker, Patrick S., 2021. "A non-elliptical orthogonal GARCH model for portfolio selection under transaction costs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    5. Han, Yingwei & Li, Ping & Xia, Yong, 2017. "Dynamic robust portfolio selection with copulas," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 190-200.
    6. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 777-878, Elsevier.
    7. Bedi, Prateek & Nashier, Tripti, 2020. "On the investment credentials of Bitcoin: A cross-currency perspective," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    8. Kolm, Petter N. & Tütüncü, Reha & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2014. "60 Years of portfolio optimization: Practical challenges and current trends," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 234(2), pages 356-371.
    9. Robert F. Engle & Olivier Ledoit & Michael Wolf, 2019. "Large Dynamic Covariance Matrices," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 363-375, April.
    10. Santos, André Alves Portela & Ferreira, Alexandre R., 2017. "On the choice of covariance specifications for portfolio selection problems," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 37(1), May.
    11. Christis Katsouris, 2021. "Optimal Portfolio Choice and Stock Centrality for Tail Risk Events," Papers 2112.12031, arXiv.org.
    12. Wang, Jianshen & Taylor, Nick, 2018. "A comparison of static and dynamic portfolio policies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 111-127.
    13. Al Janabi, Mazin A.M. & Arreola Hernandez, Jose & Berger, Theo & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2017. "Multivariate dependence and portfolio optimization algorithms under illiquid market scenarios," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(3), pages 1121-1131.
    14. Zhu, Bo & Zhang, Tianlun, 2021. "Long-term wealth growth portfolio allocation under parameter uncertainty: A non-conservative robust approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    15. Yudong Wang & Chongfeng Wu & Li Yang, 2015. "Hedging with Futures: Does Anything Beat the Naïve Hedging Strategy?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(12), pages 2870-2889, December.
    16. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    17. Maria Scutellà & Raffaella Recchia, 2013. "Robust portfolio asset allocation and risk measures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 204(1), pages 145-169, April.
    18. Istvan Varga-Haszonits & Fabio Caccioli & Imre Kondor, 2016. "Replica approach to mean-variance portfolio optimization," Papers 1606.08679, arXiv.org.
    19. Caldeira, João F & Moura, Guilherme Valle & Santos, André Alves Portela, 2013. "Seleção de carteiras utilizando o modelo Fama-French-Carhart," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(1), April.
    20. Santos, André A.P. & Moura, Guilherme V., 2014. "Dynamic factor multivariate GARCH model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 606-617.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Robust portfolio selection; Dynamic multivariate copula; GJR-GARCH-EVT; Conditional value-at-risk; Financial crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:69:y:2024:i:pb:s1062940823001602. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.