IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v76y2019icp192-198.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Persistence and stochastic convergence of euro area unemployment rates

Author

Listed:
  • Krištić, Irena Raguž
  • Dumančić, Lucija Rogić
  • Arčabić, Vladimir

Abstract

This paper analyzes unemployment rates in the euro area (EA) countries to test for EA-related benefits and economic integration of the EA in the form of lower unemployment rates and unemployment rates convergence. We employ recently developed unit root tests with structural breaks and non-normal errors to analyze the persistence, test the stochastic convergence and locate structural break(s) in EA unemployment rates from 1995q1 to 2016q2. Our results imply a certain degree of unemployment hysteresis in the EA. Even though the results support the stochastic convergence of the majority of EA countries, we find that EA membership is not a sufficient condition for stochastic convergence. Nevertheless, EA-related breaks are followed by the periods of convergence to the EA11 average. Crisis-related breaks are followed by the periods of divergence. Although providing initial benefits, EA is not functioning as an optimal currency area.

Suggested Citation

  • Krištić, Irena Raguž & Dumančić, Lucija Rogić & Arčabić, Vladimir, 2019. "Persistence and stochastic convergence of euro area unemployment rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 192-198.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:76:y:2019:i:c:p:192-198
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.07.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999318303626
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.07.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hashem Pesaran, M., 2007. "A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 312-355, May.
    2. Ángel Estrada & Jordi Galí & David López-Salido, 2013. "Patterns of Convergence and Divergence in the Euro Area," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 61(4), pages 601-630, December.
    3. Eichhorst, Werner & Escudero, Veronica & Marx, Paul & Tobin, Steven, 2010. "The Impact of the Crisis on Employment and the Role of Labour Market Institutions," IZA Discussion Papers 5320, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Chang, Tsangyao, 2011. "Hysteresis in unemployment for 17 OECD countries: Stationary test with a Fourier function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 2208-2214, September.
    5. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & da Silva, Cleomar Gomes, 2009. "Hysteresis versus NAIRU and convergence versus divergence: The behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 308-322, May.
    6. Bernard, Andrew B. & Durlauf, Steven N., 1996. "Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 161-173.
    7. Paul Krugman, 2012. "Revenge of the Optimum Currency Area," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2012, Volume 27, pages 439-448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Paul De Grauwe, 2014. "The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and Global Financial Policies, chapter 12, pages 297-320, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez & Hector Sala, 2018. "Inequality and Unemployment Patterns in Europe: Does Integration Lead to (Real) Convergence?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 703-724, September.
    10. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    11. Ming Meng & Mark C. Strazicich & Junsoo Lee, 2017. "Hysteresis in unemployment? Evidence from linear and nonlinear unit root tests and tests with non-normal errors," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 1399-1414, December.
    12. Bernard, Andrew B & Durlauf, Steven N, 1995. "Convergence in International Output," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 97-108, April-Jun.
    13. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1986, Volume 1, pages 15-90, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    15. Lee, Cheng-Feng, 2010. "Testing for unemployment hysteresis in nonlinear heterogeneous panels: International evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1097-1102, September.
    16. Artis, Michael J & Zhang, W, 1997. "International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is There a European Business Cycle?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, January.
    17. Song, Frank M & Wu, Yangru, 1997. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from 48 U.S. States," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 235-243, April.
    18. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    19. David H. Papell & Christian J. Murray & Hala Ghiblawi, 2000. "The Structure of Unemployment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(2), pages 309-315, May.
    20. Meng, Ming & Payne, James E. & Lee, Junsoo, 2013. "Convergence in per capita energy use among OECD countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 536-545.
    21. Laurence M. Ball, 2009. "Hysteresis in Unemployment: Old and New Evidence," NBER Working Papers 14818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. repec:bla:germec:v:8:y:2007:i::p:510-535 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Song, Frank M. & Wu, Yangru, 1998. "Hysteresis in unemployment: Evidence from OECD countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 181-192.
    24. Arestis, Philip & Biefang-Frisancho Mariscal, Iris, 1999. "Unit roots and structural breaks in OECD unemployment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 149-156, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Vladimir Arčabić, 2020. "Koronakriza i što Hrvatska može naučiti iz dosadašnjih recesija," Tradicionalni skup Hrvatskog društva ekonomista u Opatiji - objavljena poglavlja, in: Josip Tica & Katarina Bačić (ed.), Ekonomska politika u 2021. godini - Hrvatska poslije pandemije, volume 28, chapter 1, pages 21-58, Hrvatsko društvo ekonomista (Croatian Society of Economists).
    2. Alka Obadić & Vladimir Arčabić & Lucija Rogić Dumančić, 2021. "Labor market institutions convergence in the European Union," EFZG Working Papers Series 2102, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    3. Ahmed Qahtan, Anwar Saeed & Xu, Helian & Abdo, AL-Barakani, 2021. "Stochastic convergence of disaggregated energy consumption per capita and its catch-up rate: An independent analysis of MENA net oil-exporting and importing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Aysegul Corakci & Tolga Omay & Mübariz Hasanov, 2022. "Hysteresis and stochastic convergence in Eurozone unemployment rates: evidence from panel unit roots with smooth breaks and asymmetric dynamics," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 11-55, March.
    5. Obadić, Alka & Arčabić, Vladimir & Rogić Dumančić, Lucija, 2023. "Club convergence of labor market institutions in the European Union," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 876-896.
    6. William Miles, 2021. "Convergence in the Eurozone: Progress Towards the Goal?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 40(2), pages 116-133, June.
    7. Feng Wang & Wenna Fan & Xiangyan Lin & Juan Liu & Xin Ye, 2020. "Does Population Mobility Contribute to Urbanization Convergence? Empirical Evidence from Three Major Urban Agglomerations in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-20, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    2. Tolga Omay & Muhammad Shahbaz & Chris Stewart, 2021. "Is there really hysteresis in the OECD unemployment rates? New evidence using a Fourier panel unit root test," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 875-901, November.
    3. Omay, Tolga & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Stewart, Chris, 2021. "Is There Really Hysteresis in OECD Countries’ Unemployment Rates? New Evidence Using a Fourier Panel Unit Root Test," MPRA Paper 107691, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 May 2021.
    4. Qaiser Munir & Sook Ching Kok & Kasim Mansur, 2019. "External Shocks, Structural Breaks And Unemployment Hysteresis In Selected Asian Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 575-600, June.
    5. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The nature of regional unemployment in Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 877-895, December.
    6. Cheng, Shu-Ching & Wu, Tsung-pao & Lee, Kuei-Chiu & Chang, Tsangyao, 2014. "Flexible Fourier unit root test of unemployment for PIIGS countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 142-148.
    7. Gomes, Fábio Augusto Reis & da Silva, Cleomar Gomes, 2009. "Hysteresis versus NAIRU and convergence versus divergence: The behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 308-322, May.
    8. Evangelia Papapetrou & Dimitrios Bakas, 2012. "Unemployment in Greece: evidence from Greek regions," Working Papers 146, Bank of Greece.
    9. Diego Romero‐Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2007. "Unit Root Tests, Persistence, and the Unemployment Rate of the U.S. States," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(3), pages 698-716, January.
    10. Khraief, Naceur & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Heshmati, Almas & Azam, Muhammad, 2020. "Are unemployment rates in OECD countries stationary? Evidence from univariate and panel unit root tests," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    11. Ebuh U. Godday & Nuruddeen Usman & Afees A. Salisu, 2022. "Testing for unemployment persistence in Nigeria," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 2605-2630, November.
    12. Cuestas, Juan C. & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Staehr, Karsten, 2011. "A further investigation of unemployment persistence in European transition economies," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 514-532.
    13. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2008. "Unemployment hysteresis in OECD countries: Centurial time series evidence with structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 312-325, March.
    14. Obadić, Alka & Arčabić, Vladimir & Rogić Dumančić, Lucija, 2023. "Club convergence of labor market institutions in the European Union," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 876-896.
    15. Bakas, Dimitrios & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2014. "Unemployment in Greece: Evidence from Greek regions using panel unit root tests," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 551-562.
    16. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir & Aysit Tansel, 2019. "Long Memory in Turkish Unemployment Rates," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 201-217, January.
    17. Vuyokazi Pikoko & Andrew Phiri, 2019. "Is There Hysteresis in South African Unemployment? Evidence from the Post-Recessionary Period," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 15(3), pages 365-387, JUNE.
    18. Fábio Augusto Reis Gomes & Cleomar Gomes da Silva, 2006. "Hysteresis Vs. Nairu And Convergence Vs. Divergence: The Behavior Of Regional Unemployment Rates In Brazil," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 161, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    19. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Unemployment hysteresis, structural changes, non-linearities and fractional integration in European transition economies," Working Papers 2011005, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
    20. Clemente, Jesus & Lanaspa, Luis & Montanes, Antonio, 2005. "The unemployment structure of the US states," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(4-5), pages 848-868, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unemployment; Euro area; Hysteresis; Stochastic convergence; Unit root; Structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:76:y:2019:i:c:p:192-198. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.