IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v32y2013icp316-324.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change

Author

Listed:
  • Marques, Luís Miguel
  • Fuinhas, José Alberto
  • Marques, António Cardoso

Abstract

The relationship between stock market and economic growth is tested for Portugal (1993–2011), which is a small open economy dependent on bank financing. The relationship between economic growth and bank financing is also appraised. Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) modeling, Granger causality, variance decomposition and impulse response function are discussed. The physical replacement of the currency, as a consequence of the integration in the European Monetary Union, proves to be an economic regime change. The effect of the subprime crisis was also proved. There is evidence of Granger bidirectional causality between the stock market and economic growth. Meanwhile, there was no evidence of causality running from bank financing to economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2013. "Does the stock market cause economic growth? Portuguese evidence of economic regime change," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 316-324.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:316-324
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.015
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313000655
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.02.015?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2011. "Thresholds in the Finance-Growth Nexus: A Cross-Country Analysis," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(2), pages 278-295, May.
    2. Suk-Joong Kim & Fari Moshirian & Eliza Wu, 2018. "Dynamic Stock Market Integration Driven by the European Monetary Union: An Empirical Analysis," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Information Spillovers and Market Integration in International Finance Empirical Analyses, chapter 10, pages 305-368, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    4. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    5. Michael Leahy & Sebastian Schich & Gert Wehinger & Florian Pelgrin & Thorsteinn Thorgeirsson, 2001. "Contributions of Financial Systems to Growth in OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 280, OECD Publishing.
    6. Bordo, Michael D. & Rousseau, Peter L., 2012. "Historical evidence on the finance-trade-growth nexus," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 1236-1243.
    7. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    8. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    9. Huang, Ho-Chuan & Lin, Shu-Chin & Kim, Dong-Hyeon & Yeh, Chih-Chuan, 2010. "Inflation and the finance-growth nexus," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 229-236, January.
    10. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Long-Run Growth," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 323-339, May.
    11. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Financial markets and economic growth in Greece, 1986-1999," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 173-188, April.
    12. Demirguc-Kunt, Ash & Levine, Ross, 1996. "Stock Market Development and Financial Intermediaries: Stylized Facts," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 10(2), pages 291-321, May.
    13. Lee, Bong-Soo, 2012. "Bank-based and market-based financial systems: Time-series evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 173-197.
    14. Gries, Thomas & Kraft, Manfred & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2009. "Linkages Between Financial Deepening, Trade Openness, and Economic Development: Causality Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 1849-1860, December.
    15. Nieuwerburgh, Stijn Van & Buelens, Frans & Cuyvers, Ludo, 2006. "Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 13-38, January.
    16. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    17. Salvatore Capasso, 2006. "Stock Market Development and Economic Growth," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-102, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Spiegel, Mark M., 2009. "Monetary and financial integration: Evidence from the EMU," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 114-130, June.
    19. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2011. "Further evidence on finance-growth causality: A panel data analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 176-188, June.
    20. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2009. "Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1140-1146, November.
    21. Rousseau, Peter L. & Wachtel, Paul, 2002. "Inflation thresholds and the finance-growth nexus," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 777-793, November.
    22. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    23. Umar Bida Ndako, 2010. "Stock Markets, Banks and Economic Growth: Time Series Evidence from South Africa," The African Finance Journal, Africagrowth Institute, vol. 12(2), pages 72-92.
    24. Bose, Niloy & Cothren, Richard, 1997. "Asymmetric Information and Loan Contracts in a Neoclassical Growth Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(4), pages 423-439, November.
    25. Benson Durham, J., 2002. "The effects of stock market development on growth and private investment in lower-income countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 211-232, September.
    26. Salvatore Capasso, 2008. "Endogenous Information Frictions, Stock Market Development And Economic Growth," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(2), pages 204-222, March.
    27. Naceur, Samy Ben & Ghazouani, Samir, 2007. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 297-315, June.
    28. Andrea Bassanini & Stefano Scarpetta & Philip Hemmings, 2001. "Economic Growth: The Role of Policies and Institutions: Panel Data. Evidence from OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    29. Mansur Masih & Ali Al-Elg & Haider Madani, 2009. "Causality between financial development and economic growth: an application of vector error correction and variance decomposition methods to Saudi Arabia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(13), pages 1691-1699.
    30. Pagano, Marco, 1993. "Financial markets and growth: An overview," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 613-622, April.
    31. Ake Boubakari & Dehuan Jin, 2010. "The Role of Stock Market Development in Economic Growth: Evidence from Some Euronext Countries," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 1(1), pages 14-20, December.
    32. Ajit Singh, 1998. "Financial liberalisation, stockmarkets and economic development," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 8(1), pages 165-182.
    33. Levine, Ross, 1991. "Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1445-1465, September.
    34. Hyoungsoo Zang & Young Chul Kim, 2007. "Does financial development precede growth? Robinson and Lucas might be right," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 15-19.
    35. Chaiechi, Taha, 2012. "Financial development shocks and contemporaneous feedback effect on key macroeconomic indicators: A post Keynesian time series analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 487-501.
    36. Nielsson, Ulf, 2009. "Stock exchange merger and liquidity: The case of Euronext," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 229-267, May.
    37. repec:dau:papers:123456789/15002 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Valeriano F. García & Lin Liu, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 2, pages 29-59, May.
    39. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    40. Valeriano F. Garcia & Lin Liu, 1999. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(1), pages 29-59, May.
    41. Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Energy consumption and economic growth nexus in Portugal, Italy, Greece, Spain and Turkey: An ARDL bounds test approach (1965–2009)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 511-517.
    42. Marini, Francois, 2005. "Banks, financial markets, and social welfare," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2557-2575, October.
    43. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2002. "Industry growth and capital allocation:*1: does having a market- or bank-based system matter?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 147-180, May.
    44. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Peter G. A Howells & Alaa M. Soliman, 2004. "Stock Market Development And Economic Growth: The Causal Linkage," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 29(1), pages 33-50, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marques, Luís Miguel & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2012. "Interação entre o mercado acionista e o crescimento económico: Uma apreciação do caso português (1993-2010) [Interaction between the stock market and economic growth: An assessment of the Portugues," MPRA Paper 39808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall & Sahar Bahmani, 2014. "Causal nexus between economic growth, banking sector development, stock market development, and other macroeconomic variables: The case of ASEAN countries," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 23(4), pages 155-173, November.
    3. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Bahmani, Sahar & Hall, John H. & Norman, Neville R., 2017. "Finance and growth: Evidence from the ARF countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 136-148.
    4. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Norman, Neville R., 2015. "Insurance development and the finance-growth nexus: Evidence from 34 OECD countries," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-22.
    5. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & Neville R. Norman & John H. Hall, 2014. "The dynamics of banking sector and stock market maturity and the performance of Asian economies," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 30(1), pages 16-44, May.
    6. Rudra P. Pradhan & Mak B. Arvin & John H. Hall, 2019. "The Nexus Between Economic Growth, Stock Market Depth, Trade Openness, And Foreign Direct Investment: The Case Of Asean Countries," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 64(03), pages 461-493, June.
    7. Polat, Ali & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Satti, Saqlain Latif, 2013. "Revisiting Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth in South Africa: Fresh Evidence from Combined Cointegration Test," MPRA Paper 51724, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Nov 2013.
    8. Naceur, Samy Ben & Ghazouani, Samir, 2007. "Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 297-315, June.
    9. Christie Dike, 2016. "Stock Market Efficiency Promotes Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1287-1298.
    10. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2005. "Financial markets and economic growth in Greece, 1986-1999," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 173-188, April.
    11. Rudra P. Pradhan, 2018. "Development of stock market and economic growth: the G-20 evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 8(2), pages 161-181, August.
    12. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    13. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2015. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 452-471, September.
    14. Yeþim Helhel, 2019. "Kýrýlgan Beþli Ülkelerde Hisse Senedi Piyasasý Geliþimi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Ýliþkisi," Isletme ve Iktisat Calismalari Dergisi, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 19-29.
    15. Ang, James B. & McKibbin, Warwick J., 2007. "Financial liberalization, financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 215-233, September.
    16. Pradhan, Rudra P. & Arvin, Mak B. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2015. "The dynamics of economic growth, oil prices, stock market depth, and other macroeconomic variables: Evidence from the G-20 countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 84-95.
    17. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "Determinants of stock market development: a review of the literature," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(1), pages 143-164, March.
    18. Boopendra Seetanah & Ushad Subadar & Raja Vinesh Sannassee & Matthew Lamport & Vashisht Ajageer, 2012. "Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from least developed countries," Competence Centre on Money, Trade, Finance and Development 1205, Hochschule fuer Technik und Wirtschaft, Berlin.
    19. repec:zbw:bofitp:2002_014 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Ho, Sin-Yu, 2017. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Stock Market Development: Evidence from Malaysia," MPRA Paper 77232, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Koivu, Tuuli, 2002. "Do efficient banking sectors accelerate economic growth in transition countries?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 14/2002, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock market; Economic growth; Economic regime change; Granger causality; VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:316-324. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.