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Multipliers of unexpected increases in defense spending: An empirical investigation

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  • Ben Zeev, Nadav
  • Pappa, Evi

Abstract

We show that unexpected increases in defense spending increase total factor productivity (TFP) and output and decrease investment in US quarterly data. Yet, the output multiplier is zero when the TFP response is shut down. We examine various explanations for this phenomenon and find that the rise in TFP is due to the presence of measurement error in quarterly data. Using artificial data generated from an RBC model with measurement error, we demonstrate the suitability of our identification approach for recovering the true output multiplier in the presence of measurement error.

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  • Ben Zeev, Nadav & Pappa, Evi, 2015. "Multipliers of unexpected increases in defense spending: An empirical investigation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 205-226.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:57:y:2015:i:c:p:205-226
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2015.06.004
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Meier & Timo Reinelt, 2024. "Monetary Policy, Markup Dispersion, and Aggregate TFP," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(4), pages 1012-1027, July.
    2. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
    3. Panagiotis Th. Konstantinou & Andromachi Partheniou & Athanasios Tagkalakis, 2022. "A functional classification analysis of government spending multipliers," Working Papers 298, Bank of Greece.
    4. Patrick Blagrave & Giang Ho & Ksenia Koloskova & Mr. Esteban Vesperoni, 2017. "Fiscal Spillovers: The Importance of Macroeconomic and Policy Conditions in Transmission," IMF Spillover Notes 2017/002, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Nadav Ben Zeev & Christopher Gunn & Hashmat Khan, 2020. "Monetary News Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(7), pages 1793-1820, October.
    6. Rodriguez-Lopez, Jesus & Solis-Garcia, Mario, 2018. "Defense spending and fiscal multipliers: it's all in the variance," MPRA Paper 86911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Abdul Jalil, 2021. "Austerity: Which Way Now?," PIDE Knowledge Brief 2021:21, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics.
    8. Antonello D'Alessandro & Giulio Fella & Leonardo Melosi, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus With Learning‐By‐Doing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1413-1432, August.
    9. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain, 2023. "Sectoral fiscal multipliers and technology in open economy," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    10. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2020. "Twin Deficits in Developing Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, February.
    11. Laure Simon, 2023. "Fiscal Stimulus and Skill Accumulation over the Life Cycle," Staff Working Papers 23-9, Bank of Canada.
    12. Jia, Bijie, 2018. "Second Thoughts on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy E ffects in the United States," MPRA Paper 90298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Tryphonides, Andreas, 2018. "Learning from Errors: The case of monetary and fiscal policy regimes," IRTG 1792 Discussion Papers 2018-022, Humboldt University of Berlin, International Research Training Group 1792 "High Dimensional Nonstationary Time Series".
    14. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Jia, Bijie, 2017. "A Second Thought on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy Effects in the U.S," MPRA Paper 89264, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2018.
    16. Kang, Jihye & Kim, Soyoung, 2022. "Government spending news and surprise shocks: It’s the timing and persistence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Bettarelli, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Pizzuto, Pietro & Yarveisi, Khatereh, 2024. "Regional fiscal spillovers: The role of trade linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    18. Davide Furceri & Jun Ge & Prakash Loungani & Giovanni Melina, 2022. "The distributional effects of government spending shocks in developing economies," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 1574-1599, August.
    19. Jesús Rodríguez-López & Mario Solís-García, 2020. "On the Magnitude of the Expenditure Multiplier," Working Papers 20.05, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Defense spending; Unanticipated defense shocks; Total factor productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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